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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results
  2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: Torie, ON Progressive)
  Dutchess County NY
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Author Topic: Dutchess County NY  (Read 2810 times)
a83192
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« on: January 26, 2013, 09:10:34 pm »

I noticed that Dutchess County,NY voted for Bush twice and then it went to Obama twice. This is the Hudson Valley and the Suburbs of NYC.  I thought that was a surprising development given its support of Bush in 2000 and 04. 

  I wonder what caused that given that 2012 Swung Romney but still lost.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1 on: January 26, 2013, 09:49:57 pm »

It is pretty much a bellwether county.  Bush won it both times by rather narrow margins while Obama's numbers both times were pretty close to the national numbers.  Almost 20% are minorities and I suspect that group went massively for Obama as well as turnout was much stronger amongst that group than in 2004 and 2000 that probably is where the difference came from.  I suspect whites narrowly backed Romney much like they narrowly backed Bush in both 2000 and 2004.  Otherwise stronger turnout amongst younger voters and minorities as was the case across the nation is probably where the difference came from.
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a83192
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« Reply #2 on: January 27, 2013, 08:42:38 am »

It is pretty much a bellwether county.  Bush won it both times by rather narrow margins while Obama's numbers both times were pretty close to the national numbers.  Almost 20% are minorities and I suspect that group went massively for Obama as well as turnout was much stronger amongst that group than in 2004 and 2000 that probably is where the difference came from.  I suspect whites narrowly backed Romney much like they narrowly backed Bush in both 2000 and 2004.  Otherwise stronger turnout amongst younger voters and minorities as was the case across the nation is probably where the difference came from.


  Interesting observation since I have relatives in Dutchess County that are hispanic and they went with Obama.
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CountryClassSF
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« Reply #3 on: January 27, 2013, 03:36:16 pm »

I noticed that Dutchess County,NY voted for Bush twice and then it went to Obama twice. This is the Hudson Valley and the Suburbs of NYC.  I thought that was a surprising development given its support of Bush in 2000 and 04. 

  I wonder what caused that given that 2012 Swung Romney but still lost.

My best guess on Dutchess would be a demographic shift combined with just the general shift leftward in Presidential Elections among cities/suburbs since 2008.

A quick wiki search shows roughly 10% African American and 6% Latino.  I imagine that's grown a bit since the 2000 census, but I think it's just the tremendous racial shift in general in terms of who one votes for.

George W. Bush did quite well with Latinos in 2004, winning about 44% of them nationally.  Not sure about 2000 but I imagine it was still in the high 30s, low 40s range.  I believe Bush broke double digits among black voters as well. 

So, you have almost a 20% minority population in the county, going lockstep Democrat -- and this time had a lower turnout of white voters in New York-recipe for defeat for the GOP there
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Torie
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« Reply #4 on: January 27, 2013, 09:08:23 pm »

The artsy crowd is moving into Dutchess. Hudson is the latest to undergo the transition. My cousin just moved there, into a Victorian house with her partner. So the income goes up, and the Dem vote goes up in tandem.
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giving birth to thunder
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« Reply #5 on: January 27, 2013, 09:11:56 pm »

I think this where Eraserhead lives. He should fill in.
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PQG and Libertarian Republican will pimp slap Coronavirus!
badger
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« Reply #6 on: January 29, 2013, 05:00:48 am »

I think this where Eraserhead lives. He should fill in.

Thank you so much for that 'contribution'.
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Smash255
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« Reply #7 on: March 17, 2013, 12:22:48 am »

Pretty much a bell weather county as was mentioned.  From 96 to 08 the county was within 2 points of the national margin all four times, and while it trended Dem in 2012, still within 4 of the national margin.
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