What Senate seats would be the safest for each party in a special election?
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  What Senate seats would be the safest for each party in a special election?		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: Vote once for Dem and once for Rep
#1
Vermont		  
#2
Hawaii		  
#3
California		  
#4
Minnesota		  
#5
Michigan		  
#6
Maryland		  
#7
Massachusetts		  
#8
Delaware		  
#9
Rhode Island		  
#10
New Jersey		  
#11
other Dem		  
#12
Idaho		  
#13
Wyoming		  
#14
Utah		  
#15
Kansas		  
#16
Oklahoma		  
#17
Mississippi		  
#18
Alabama		  
#19
South Carolina		  
#20
Tennessee		  
#21
Texas		  
#22
other Rep		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 26

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Author Topic: What Senate seats would be the safest for each party in a special election?  (Read 751 times)
nclib
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« on: January 25, 2013, 10:13:44 PM »
« edited: January 25, 2013, 10:16:42 PM by nclib »
Four years ago Mass. would have been my choice for the Dems and we all saw how that turned out (though I still think Markey will beat Brown).

Dem: Maryland, Vermont, or Rhode Island. Voted Maryland since a small state could conceivably be wooed by an opposite-party candidate promising pork.

Rep: Pretty much any state with 2 GOP Senators, would be hard to picture going Dem in this environment. Voted Texas by the small-state theory I just mentioned.
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Sic Semper Fascistis
Antonio V
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« Reply #1 on: January 25, 2013, 10:58:27 PM »
Vermont for Ds (people there might be fine with a moderate Rep for statewide positions, but not with a vote for McConnell), WY for Rs (do Dems even exist there?).
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Bacon King
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« Reply #2 on: January 26, 2013, 03:04:42 AM »
« Edited: January 26, 2013, 03:06:56 AM by Bacon King »
I voted VT and UT. The biggest thing that causes weird results in special elections is turnout, and these two states strike me as the two where even extremely low turnout would remain most consistent with their normal electoral results.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dave_Freudenthal
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morgieb
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« Reply #3 on: January 26, 2013, 03:12:48 AM »
I went with Maryland and Idaho as they don't have good candidates for their opposing teams.
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RodPresident
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« Reply #4 on: January 26, 2013, 05:22:47 AM »
Maryland GOP bench is weakest between RI, VT and MD. Michael Steele?
Idaho. Wyoming has Freudenthal, Utah has Mattheson.
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politicallefty
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« Reply #5 on: January 26, 2013, 05:25:11 AM »
I went with Vermont and Wyoming. Both are for obvious reasons. Wyoming is routinely R>70% in Senate elections. Democrats haven't even broke 30% in a Senate race there since 1996. The safest Democratic state is somewhat harder to figure out, but I do agree with an above comment that turnout is a big consideration. Vermont is probably less prone to huge turnout shifts.
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Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
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« Reply #6 on: January 26, 2013, 08:15:47 AM »
Vermont and Idaho.
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Snowstalker Mk. II
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« Reply #7 on: January 26, 2013, 12:18:24 PM »
Maryland and Utah.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #8 on: January 26, 2013, 01:25:36 PM »
Mississippi and California.
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Fascism Must Be Defeated
Sol
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« Reply #9 on: January 26, 2013, 03:12:48 PM »
Maryland and Alabama. Both are inelastic, medium sized states.
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