Greater than 40% of MN voters are going to vote for any GOP candidate. Doesn't mean the state is competitive. There's not much elasticity.
Minnesota is not a swing state. The last Republican nominees for President to win the state were Nixon in 1972 and Eisenhower in 1952 and 1956. Nixon won 49 states and Eisenhower swept the Northern and Western states.
Yes it is. Democrats just got lucky 1984 and 2000. Pawlenty survived the D-wave in 2006 and Franken ran way behind Obama in 2008. A good ground game will win them this state in the future, and it has been trending Republican for some time now.
1984 was one of the greatest landslides in American history. If the GOP wins 49 states, they'll probably get MN. That doesn't make it a swing state. In 2000, you had a third party splintering the Dem vote. That doesn't make it a swing state either.
Um, were you around for 2004? Did you look at the polls pre-financial crisis in 2008? Kerry's victory was less than five points, and the GOP held their convention there because they believed they could make inroads.
In an even election, the GOP will dump millions into Minnesota and the winner will come within a few points. The only reason it has a light swing in 2012 was because Republicans never bothered to contest the state.
The state is slowly drifting to the right (as is the rest of the rust belt). It will likely go Republican at some point in the next few elections. It is in no way a safe state.