MN-PPP: Minnesota could be a swing state with Christie

[Mr. Morden]

I'm once again intrigued by the interesting age breakdown.  As I said in the "age polarization reversal" thread:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=167977.0

the 2016 polling we've seen so far seems to show that while people under 30 are Hillary Clinton's strongest demo in the general election matchups, she also does very well with those over 65, while the GOP does best among those aged 30-45 (in contrast to the Obama elections, where the GOP's strongest group was olds).  Well, in this poll, we see that the same phenomenon exists when Klobuchar is the Dem. nominee.  It's not just Clinton.  It might just be a consequence of not having Obama on the ticket.

In any case, in all of the matchups here, the GOP candidate's strongest age group is those aged 30-45:

Christie/Clinton:
18-29: Clinton +23
30-45: Christie +9
46-65: Clinton +7
over 65: Clinton +20

Christie/Klobuchar:
18-29: Klobuchar +14
30-45: Christie +11
46-64: Klobuchar +8
over 65: Klobuchar +13

Rubio/Clinton:
18-29: Clinton +40
30-45: Clinton +3
46-65: Clinton +12
over 65: Clinton +21

Rubio/Klobuchar:
18-29: Klobuchar +20
30-45: Klobuchar +4
46-65: Klobuchar +15
over 65: Kobuchar +19

[Mr. Morden]

Of course, PPP has Christie with strong cross party appeal in its national polls, only trailing Clinton nationally by 2%.  He's presumably leading all of the non-Clinton 2016 Dems nationally, it's just that no one has actually conducted such polls to test this.

In that case, several states that are "lean Dem" in a 50/50 election become swing states.  Doesn't mean that those normally lean Dem states will still be in play in Nov. 2016.  It's just reflective of where things are now, when Christie is perhaps the most popular current officeholder in the GOP.  Where things go from here is anyone's guess.