Who is most likely to win the 2016 GOP presidential nomination?

[Mr. Morden]

?

We haven't done one of these in a while.

[TNF]

Chris Christie.

[RogueBeaver]

Depends who runs.

[Mr. Morden]

Depends who runs.

Right.  But if someone today offered to give you $1 million in 2016 if the person you name today ends up winning the nomination that year, what name would you give?  That's the question.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Christie

[Mister Mets]

I'll go with Ryan.

There are four potential top-tier candidates, but two are unlikely to run against one another. So while Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio may be the frontrunner in the primary, neither is most likely to win the nomination, as neither is certain to run.

The other top-tier candidates are Christie and Ryan, both of whom seem certain to run.

Former candidates for national office get a lot of free media, so that's going to be useful for Ryan. And he has a geographic edge in the Iowa caucus.

[For Raza livin in La La/Like Gaza onto the dawn of Intifada]

Christie.

[Likely Voter]

Christie

[Maxwell]

Christie

[Dakota Robertson]

Rubio because Arizona will be a very important state in 2016 and with a latino running this will close close the gap somewhat and keep Maricopa County red.

Go to 270 and you will see Arizona being blue would be devastating to the GOP

[ShadowRocket]

Christie. Mainly because I see history repeating itself again once with the conservative wing once again not being able to unite behind one candidate.  Allowing Christie to follow the McCain/Romney path to the nomination.

[morgieb]

Rubio, because I can see conservatives attacking Christie over his moderation.

[RogueBeaver]

What Mr. Mets said.

[NHI]

Too early to say for sure. Rubio or Christie seem the most likely.

[Mr. Morden]

I'll go with Ryan.

There are four potential top-tier candidates, but two are unlikely to run against one another. So while Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio may be the frontrunner in the primary, neither is most likely to win the nomination, as neither is certain to run.

The other top-tier candidates are Christie and Ryan, both of whom seem certain to run.

Hmmm....I disagree.  Ryan may be slightly more likely to run than Rubio, but not by much (and Rubio I think more likely to win the nomination if he does run).  Ryan does not at all seem certain to run to me.  I've never gotten the sense from him that his #1 ambition from day 1 was the White House.  He may take the chance if he sees a path to victory, but I don't think he's in love with the idea of being president the way some others are.  He may be nearly as happy ascending the ladder in the House, although as I point out here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=164982.msg3526435#msg3526435

2016 might actually be a good time to take a break from being a committee chairman while he waits for Ways and Means to open up.....so why not run for president while he's waiting? 

Rubio, OTOH, comes across to me as someone like Obama.....he sees his Senate seat as just a stepping stone to the White House, and that's the only sense in which he ever really cared about it.  Now, it's true that Rubio might be blocked from running if Bush runs, since Bush is his mentor and more senior Floridian.  But I don't think Bush is running.  In the last few years, he seems to have drifted away from the national GOP.  Again, from the tea leaves thread's quote of the NY Mag story on Bush "drifting left":

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=164982.msg3527600#msg3527600

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Bush might run if he somehow sees a path to victory that doesn't involve him having to shamelessly pander to the party base in the way that Romney did, but I don't see that as likely.  Also, if Rubio continues to lead GOP primary polls, I don't see Bush blocking Rubio by engaging in his own longshot bid.

[bballrox4717]

Rubio, but if Rand Paul runs, Christie wins.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Jebco Christryantorum.

[Vern]

Martinez

[Mister Mets]

I'll go with Ryan.

There are four potential top-tier candidates, but two are unlikely to run against one another. So while Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio may be the frontrunner in the primary, neither is most likely to win the nomination, as neither is certain to run.

The other top-tier candidates are Christie and Ryan, both of whom seem certain to run.

Hmmm....I disagree.  Ryan may be slightly more likely to run than Rubio, but not by much (and Rubio I think more likely to win the nomination if he does run).  Ryan does not at all seem certain to run to me.  I've never gotten the sense from him that his #1 ambition from day 1 was the White House.  He may take the chance if he sees a path to victory, but I don't think he's in love with the idea of being president the way some others are.  He may be nearly as happy ascending the ladder in the House, although as I point out here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=164982.msg3526435#msg3526435

2016 might actually be a good time to take a break from being a committee chairman while he waits for Ways and Means to open up.....so why not run for president while he's waiting?  

Rubio, OTOH, comes across to me as someone like Obama.....he sees his Senate seat as just a stepping stone to the White House, and that's the only sense in which he ever really cared about it.  Now, it's true that Rubio might be blocked from running if Bush runs, since Bush is his mentor and more senior Floridian.  But I don't think Bush is running.  In the last few years, he seems to have drifted away from the national GOP.  Again, from the tea leaves thread's quote of the NY Mag story on Bush "drifting left":

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=164982.msg3527600#msg3527600

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Bush might run if he somehow sees a path to victory that doesn't involve him having to shamelessly pander to the party base in the way that Romney did, but I don't see that as likely.  Also, if Rubio continues to lead GOP primary polls, I don't see Bush blocking Rubio by engaging in his own longshot bid.

Ryan was a candidate for national office. The ambition seems to be there. He has demographic strengths now due to his relative youth. In twelve years, he'll be another old white guy, albeit wonkier than the competition.

[Niemeyerite]

Voted Rubio, but I think Walker could easily get the nomination. The GOP base loves him.

[Sopranos Republican]

I want Christie or Martinez, I think they both will run and whichever one doesn't win the nomination, I hope they get picked as the running mate.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Rubio because Arizona will be a very important state in 2016 and with a latino running this will close close the gap somewhat and keep Maricopa County red.

Go to 270 and you will see Arizona being blue would be devastating to the GOP

Rubio is white. He is a Caucasian Cuban. Hispanics don't identify with him. Having him at the head doesn't help with Hispanics in Nevada, New Mexico, Arizona, and Colorado doesn't help the GOP among those voters unless they move significantly leftward on their policy positions.

[Beet]

This is one of those threads that's going to look hilarious in 3 1/2 years.

[CountryClassSF]

I'm active in the tea party and there appears to be a sudden burst of enthusiasm for Rand Paul. 

My early favorites are Rubio, Jindal, and possibly Paul -- but  I do think that the establishment is setting Christie up to be the candidate.

I'm not sure how many more losses Republicans can take when the establishment has to ram the candidate down our throats as they did in the last two cycles.

Hopefully the reforms in the primary process as well as proposed electoral vote reforms can help make it a more straightforward and fair nomination process to where no one feels left out of the equation

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

This is one of those threads that's going to look hilarious in 3 1/2 years.

Calling it now, Rick Perry will be the nominee. I will either look like a complete idiot or a prodigal genius when this gets pulled up in summer 2016.