South Tyrol (Südtirol) regional election - 21 Oct. 2018

[Tender Branson]

This will take place in the fall.

2008 results:

48.1% SÜDTIROLER VOLKSPARTEI (18 seats)
14.3% DIE FREIHEITLICHEN (5 seats)
  8.3% IL POPOLO DELLA LIBERTÀ BERLUSCONI (3 seats)
  6.0% DEMOKRATISCHE PARTEI PD PARTITO DEMOCRATICO (2 seats)
  5.8% VERDI GRÜNE VËRC BÜRGER LISTE CIVICHE (2 seats)
  4.9% SÜD-TIROLER FREIHEIT (2 seats)
  2.3% UNION FÜR SÜDTIROL (1 seat)
  2.1% LEGA NORD SÜDTIROL (1 seat)
  1.9% UNITALIA MOVIMENTO INIZIATIVA SOCIALE (1 seat)

  1.6% DIPIETRO ITALIA DEI VALORI
  1.2% CASINI UDC
  1.2% BÜRGERBEWEGUNG
  1.1% LADINS DOLOMITES
  0.7% SINISTRA DELL'ALTO ADIGE / LINKE FÜR SÜDTIROL
  0.4% SÜDTIROLER KOMMUNISTEN / COMUNISTI ITALIANI

Turnout: 80.1%

http://www.landtag-bz.org/de/wahlen/ergebnisse-landtagswahlen.asp

...

Maps:

[Tender Branson]

Latest poll by Dr. Gruber & Partner:

40.6% SÜDTIROLER VOLKSPARTEI
23.7% DIE FREIHEITLICHEN 
  9.5% DEMOKRATISCHE PARTEI PD PARTITO DEMOCRATICO
  5.8% VERDI GRÜNE VËRC BÜRGER LISTE CIVICHE
  5.6% SÜD-TIROLER FREIHEIT
  3.6% IL POPOLO DELLA LIBERTÀ BERLUSCONI
  1.9% UNION FÜR SÜDTIROL
  1.2% MOVIMENTO 5 STELLE
  0.8% LEGA NORD SÜDTIROL
  7.3% OTHERS

http://www.drgruber-partner.com/de/analyse/107-meinungsforschung/168-sonntagsfrageoktober

[Tender Branson]

The state election takes place on Sunday and the latest poll shows that the SVP might lose its absolute majority.

The SVP's long-time governor of over 20 years, Luis Durnwalder, has retired.

Arno Kompatscher has been elected as the new SVP frontrunner.

Latest poll by Dr. Gruber & Partner:

45% SÜDTIROLER VOLKSPARTEI
14% DIE FREIHEITLICHEN
12% DEMOKRATISCHE PARTEI PD PARTITO DEMOCRATICO
  8% VERDI GRÜNE VËRC BÜRGER LISTE CIVICHE
  6% SÜD-TIROLER FREIHEIT
  7% IL POPOLO DELLA LIBERTÀ BERLUSCONI/LEGA NORD
  2% MOVIMENTO 5 STELLE
  6% Others

[Tender Branson]

On the left, Arno Kompatscher (SVP), the new governor-candidate:



South Tyrol is the wealthiest region in Italy, unemployment is extremely low and the students are highly educated.

Yet despite all of this, the SVP might still lose ground on Sunday simply because of the change in leadership: Durnwalder was Erwin Pröll-like and dominated the political scene, while his successor promises a more modern governing style, away from the ethnic polarisation politics and more in favour of moving South Tyrol ahead economically by using the status quo when it comes to the territorial autonomy. If the SVP does better than expected and keeps the absolute majority on Sunday, this might also be the reason why they kept it: Because Kompatscher avoids the heated ethnic talk that usually benefits the pro-Austrian/pro-"independence" DIE FREIHEITLICHEN  and the SÜD-TIROLER FREIHEIT.

Polls will open at 6am on Sunday and close at 10pm in the night.

About 400.000 people are eligible to vote.

[Tender Branson]

Here's the languages map by town (based on the 2011 Census):

[Tender Branson]

Side fact:

Between the 2001 census and the 2011 census, the percentage of German-speakers increased from 69% to 69.5%, while the Italian-speakers dropped from 26.5% to 26%. The percentage of Ladin speakers remained unchanged at 4.5%

[Tender Branson]

Is there any difference between Die Freiheitlichen and Süd-Tiroler Freiheit?
And is it known what the support would be for either independence or a (re)union with Austria?

As far as I understand, the Freedomites (Die Freiheitlichen) favour a more or less independent "Free State" with full tax freedom and a close relationship with the real Tyrol and Austria. They also have elements such as the Austrian FPÖ when it comes to foreigners: The Freedomites in both entities say that there are too many foreigners in the country/state, and that immigration must be limited (but while the FPÖ means Eastern Europeans and Muslims, the Freedomites basically mean Italians moving North).

The Süd-Tiroler Freiheit on the other hand is a secessionist party (relatively new) that favors either independence (Südtirol becoming a country on it's own) or re-integration into the "Austrian Fatherland".

They put up billboards such as "Südtirol is not Italy !"



The SVP basically wants the status quo to remain, just with full tax autonomy.

...

When it comes to polls, I found this one:

http://www.tageszeitung.it/2013/07/02/die-sezession-umfrage

It is a poll conducted for the Freedomites and the Süd-Tiroler Freiheit, so you have to take it with a ton of salt - usually ...

But the poll was conducted by Austrian pollster Karmasin, who also does the polls for the parliamentary elections and they were pretty good this year.

In the poll, they only asked German and Ladin speakers about 2 options:

* independence from Italy (54%)
* remain with Italy (26%)

A merger with Austria was not asked.

They also asked if those polled feel as Italians or not:

86% do NOT identify themselves as Italians, while 6% say they feel as Italians.

The Independence vs. stay with Italy question by party:



http://www.tageszeitung.it/2013/07/02/die-sezession-umfrage/

[Tender Branson]

I like how the video in the link with street interviews of German-speaking South Tyrolians is virtually the opposite of what the poll shows: Most of those interviewed in the video say they see themselves as either South Tyrolians or Italians (or both) and by far the most want to stick with Italy. Only a handful think that they should secede or (like one woman said) join Switzerland for economic reasons ...

[Tender Branson]

Today is election day.

Polls are open from 6am to 10pm.

The votes will be counted tomorrow.

400.958 people are eligible to vote.

Turnout was 80% in 2008 and there will be 3 turnout measurements during the day:

* at 11am
* at 5pm
* at 10pm

Turnout measurements:

http://wahlen.provinz.bz.it/awd_ld_vg.htm

http://www.stol.it/Artikel/Politik-im-Ueberblick/Landtagswahlen-2013/Suedtirol-waehlt-einen-neuen-Landtag

[Tender Branson]

My prediction:

45% SVP
16% Freiheitliche
10% PD
10% Greens
  6% Süd-Tiroler Freiheit
  6% Berlusconi/Lega Nord
  7% Others

Turnout: 77% (-3%)

Probably a SVP-PD coalition.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout at 11am is 22.2% and down by 1% compared with the same time in 2008 (23.2%).

This is based on 468 of the 487 precincts so far in Südtirol.

If the trend holds, my estimate would be not too bad.

I also do not know if these include postal ballots or not (but probably they are included already).

[Tender Branson]

It's also interesting how high turnout is in South Tyrol, relative to their northern brothers and sisters.

Turnout is ca. 80% in the South and 60% in the North (last state election in April).

[Tender Branson]

Final data for 11am turnout is in:

2013: 22.4%
2008: 23.2%

http://wahlen.provinz.bz.it/awd_ld_vg.htm

[Tender Branson]

Eligible postal voters are 27,908

Out of them, 26,425 have their residence outside Italy.
1,483 eligible postal voters have still their residency in Bolzano province but they are out of it for a long period: 1,360 outside of Italy, 123 in another Italian province.

I am not sure if they are counted in the turnout stats because it says  (at least, in the Italian version of the website) "turnout data is calculcated based on the Alto Adige municipalities". And the majority of postal voters can't be associated to any municipalities as their residency is in a foreign country.

Last week Durnwalder was estimating 5,000 postal votes to be received in the end.

Count will be tomorrow.

Thanks for the info, Andrea.

If 28.000 people have requested absentee ballots, why does Durnwalder think only 5.000 are returned ?

That seems very low.

In Austrian and German elections, at least 80% of postal ballots are usually returned.

I know that many who requested absentees are students living in Innsbruck (North Tyrol) for example, but 5.000 of 28.000 would be strange ...

[Tender Branson]

No, eligible postal voters - people who have the right to request an absentee ballot.

Ah yeah ... I thought those 28.000 have already requested one.

So is there any number somewhere about how many requested a postal ballot ?

If 5000 are estimated to be returned, probably some 6000 requested ?

[Tender Branson]

So the rest (27316) has been automatically enrolled as postal voters.

Do you know if those 27.316 did get an absentee ballot sent to them automatically ?

[Tender Branson]

I found this English piece on the website of the South-Tyrolean Freedom:

South-Tyrolean Freedom Movement

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.suedtiroler-freiheit.com/south-tyrolean-freedom-movement

Notice also how the SVP, the Freedomites and the South-Tyrolean Freedom do not use the ".it" domain in their websites ... SVP uses ".eu", while the others use ".com"

[Tender Branson]

So the rest (27316) has been automatically enrolled as postal voters.

Do you know if those 27.316 did get an absentee ballot sent to them automatically ?

I don't know. This is the German press release by the authority regarding postal votes
http://www.provinz.bz.it/lpa/285.asp?aktuelles_action=4&aktuelles_article_id=437542

Grazie ...

The article doesn't say though if the postal ballots are sent to them automatically or if they still needed to request them.

If they got them automatically, far more than 5000 would be returned.

If they still needed to request them, 5000 could be accurate.

[Tender Branson]

Next turnout update in 15 minutes ...

[Tender Branson]

5pm turnout:

56.6%

2008: 55.7%

Turnout down by 2% in the capital Bozen, but up almost everywhere else.

Still don't know if these figures already include returned postal ballots or not.

This is important because this is the first time postal voting is possible in Südtirol.

[Tender Branson]

Does anyone know if South Tyrol has non-enforced mandatory voting like Italy, or not ?

[Tender Branson]

Postal ballots were not included in the 11am and 5pm turnout figures.

They will be included in the 10pm figures though.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So, if Durnwalder estimates that ca. 5000 postal ballots were returned, then turnout was ca. 58% at 5pm, instead of the 56.6% without postals.

[Tender Branson]

Final turnout numbers coming in now ...

Currently around 77-78%.

[Tender Branson]

Big turnout drop in the capital Bozen (-9%), with only very slight drops elsewhere.

[Tender Branson]

Postal ballots were not included in the 11am and 5pm turnout figures.

They will be included in the 10pm figures though.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This newspaper report was wrong after all, the 10pm turnout was 77.7% and did not include postal voters.

Postal votes will be counted later today but I have no clue how many of them were returned.