South Tyrol (Südtirol) regional election - 21 Oct. 2018

[njwes]

Tender and YL, thanks so much for the detailed explanations!

[Andrea]

South Tyrol is one of the areas with the highest share of public workers out of the local population in Italy.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Oh God Tender... It's called Trentino-Alto Adige and it's a Region, not a State. Stop confusing your irredentist dreams with reality.

[Tender Branson]

This thread can easily be extended to include the 2018 state election in October ...

There is a brand new Market poll out:

Compared with 2013, the big-tent SVP loses about 7%. The Freedomites lose 2%, while the more radical South Tyrolian Freedom pulls into 3rd place and gains 4%.

The Team Köllensperger is a new grouping from the popular former M5S-leader in South Tyrol, who decided to run his own list (+8%). The rest-M5S is still pulling in 4%, a gain of 1.5%.

The Greens are dropping back a bit from 9% to 8%.

Other, mostly Italian parties such as the Lega (+2.5%) and the PD (-3%) play no major part.

The Ladin-speaking Bürger-Union pulls in 2% and remains stable.

The most interesting aspects is that the current SVP-PD government loses its majority.



---

Here is another post I made in the Austrian thread:

South Tyrol (= part of Italy) will have a state election on October 21st.



South Tyrol once belonged to the Austrian (German-speaking) state of Tyrol as a whole, but was awarded to Italy after WW1.

Currently, about 70% of the residents there belong to the German-speaking group, 26% to the Italian-speaking group (mostly in the capital Bozen) and 4% to the Ladin-speaking group.

South Tyrol is the wealthiest region in Italy, has the lowest unemployment rate and contrary to Italy, which now has a huge birth deficit - also a positive natural population growth rate.



Therefore it is not surprising that the centrist, economy-minded SVP (People's Party) always does pretty well in state elections. For most of the time they got an absolute majority, but lost it in 2013 and formed a coalition with the PD.



Arno Kompatscher, Governor (SVP).

There's a new internal GfK poll out for the SVP which shows the following:

40% SVP
18% F (= Freedomites, close to the Austrian FPÖ - want big autonomy for South Tyrol)
  8% M5S
  7% SF (= South Tyrolian Freedom, also close to the FPÖ - want a merger with Austria)
  7% Greens
  5% Lega
  5% PD
10% Others

The SVP would lose 6% compared with 2013 and the PD 2%. The Greens lose 2%.

F and SF would remain virtually unchanged.

The winners would be M5S (+5.5%) and Lega (+2.5%), reflecting national Italian trends in the small Italian-speaking group.

https://www.sn.at/politik/weltpolitik/suedtiroler-landtagswahl-findet-am-21-oktober-statt-27675997

[FrancoAgo]

The most interesting aspects is that the current SVP-PD government loses its majority.

if they had not majority it's possible that we have new elections until they get majority

[Tender Branson]

The most interesting aspects is that the current SVP-PD government loses its majority.

if they had not majority it's possible that we have new elections until they get majority

If SVP+PD get no majority, I assume they will bring the Greens on board.

New elections seem very unlikely.

[FrancoAgo]

If SVP+PD get no majority, I assume they will bring the Greens on board.

would be enough?

[Tender Branson]

If SVP+PD get no majority, I assume they will bring the Greens on board.

would be enough?

I think so.

[rob in cal]

  Any sense among German speakers how they feel about the new national government. Would more pro-Salvini leaning voters support F and SF?

[Tender Branson]

 Any sense among German speakers how they feel about the new national government. Would more pro-Salvini leaning voters support F and SF?

Hard to tell.

The poll results are behind a pay-wall, but apparently also asked questions about immigration.

I would assume that many South Tyrolians approve of the new government and their immigration policies, mostly because a lot of the immigrants take the route north to Austria/Germany/Sweden by passing South Tyrol first. So, any policy that cracks down hard on the immigration flow should be approved.

Pro-Salvini leaning voters in South Tyrol (or those who strongly oppose further uncontrolled immigration to Italy from Africa) are very likely to vote for the Lega and the two German-speaking far-right parties, F and SF. Combined, they are getting 32% in the poll - which is about what the Lega gets in Italy right now.

[Tender Branson]

14 parties/lists will be on the ballot in the Oct. 21 state election:

SVP - Südtiroler Volkspartei
Die Freiheitlichen
Verdi – Grüne – Vërc + LeU
Süd-Tiroler Freiheit
PD Partito Democratico Demokratische Partei
Forza Italia
Lega Nord
MoVimento 5 Stelle
BürgerUnion für Südtirol
L'Alto Adige nel Cuore + Fratelli d'Italia uniti
Team Köllensperger
Vereinte Linke / Sinistra unita
CasaPound Italia
Noi Alto Adige Südtirol

[Tender Branson]

Meanwhile Salvini, who has been favourable about the ÖVP-FPÖ position recently, has clarified his position on Austrian passports for South Tyrolians today:

"Only Italy will decide who will hand out passports to Italians. While we have a great relationship with our Austrian friends, there will be no Austrian passports handed out to South Tyrolians until there's an agreement between the 2 countries on that topic. My Austrian friends have re-assured me that no legislation is being drafted in the next time that will implement such a policy."

https://www.suedtirolnews.it/italien/salvini-in-presse-zu-doppelpaessen-nur-italien-entscheidet

[Tender Branson]

CasaPound (a Neo-Nazi, neo-Fascist Italian party) wants to "cleanse" South Tyrol (cleanse them from the current SVP/PD government and black people, see election poster):

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

long live Grossosterreich!

[Tender Branson]

Long live Großösterreich !

Unnecessary comment.

[Tender Branson]

A few updates:

* South Tyrol governor Arno Kompatscher (SVP) wants a result "above 40%" and a strong mandate. He acknowledges that the environment is "difficult" for the SVP this year and expects the far-right wing parties (Freedomites, STF and Lega) to do well in the election. He's also not completely ruling out a coalition with the Lega, should they emerge as the strongest Italian-minded party in the election. According to the autonomy statute, an Italian party needs to be represented in the regional government and since the PD is about to collape, it could be the Lega.

* Also, Salvini and Strache will both campaign next weekend during the closing period of the election campaign. Not sure if they will campaign together, but Salvini has scheduled at least 4 events.

https://www.tt.com/ticker/14906108/suedtirol-wahl-salvini-plant-intensives-wahlkampf-wochenende

https://www.tt.com/ticker/14902187/suedtirol-wahl-kompatscher-will-ueber-40-prozent-absolute-schwierig

I expect the big-tent SVP to lose by quite a bit, just like their current coalition partner PD. The Greens and the Freedomites might remain stable or lose a bit, while the far-right STF and Lega will all gain ground a lot.

The M5S recently split into the inter-ethnic TK (Team Köllensperger), which is attractive to both Italian- and German-speakers and should do well.

The Berlusconi-party and other small Italian parties have no chance of getting measurable support.

[Tender Branson]

Interesting development in an otherwise very boring South Tyrol election campaign:



https://www.tt.com/politik/europapolitik/14917639/salvini-prostet-kurz-und-strache-in-suedtirol-in-den-schatten

The Austrian (North)-Tyrolian newspaper "TT" (literally) writes:

"Salvini toasts Kurz and Strache into the shadow."

... meaning something like "Salvini running a much better campaign in South Tyrol than Kurz or Strache".

Salvini recently showed up at a Kastelruther Spatzen concert (!), which is a German-origin/dominated folk/country music event and toasted to the (German) crowd, which toasted back at him and took many selfies with Salvini.

This is surprising, because until recently the German-speaking crowd mostly voted SVP and Freedomites and STF.

But now, it seems many of them will also vote Lega on Sunday.

Salvini ain't stupid.

[Tender Branson]

My prediction for Sunday (very hard to predict):

41.1% SVP - Südtiroler Volkspartei (South Tyrol People's Party, centrist)
14.0% Freiheitliche (Freedomites, far-right)
  9.2% Lega Nord (Northern League, far-right)
  8.3% Süd-Tiroler Freiheit (South Tyrol Freedom, far-right)
  7.6% Grüne-Verdi (Greens, eco-left)
  7.4% Team Köllensperger (centrist)
  3.3% MoVimento 5 Stelle (5 Star Movement, centrist-populist)
  3.2% PD - Partito Democratico (Democratic Party, center-left)
  1.8% BürgerUnion (Citizen Union, right-wing)
  1.4% Forza Italia (Forward Italy, right-wing)
  1.1% L’Alto Adige nel Cuore/Fratelli d'Italia (far-right)
  0.7% Vereinte Linke-Sinistra Unita (United Left, far-left)
  0.6% CasaPound Italia (Neo-Nazi, Fascism, far-right)
  0.3% Noi per l’Alto Adige (We for South Tyrol)

Turnout: 81.3% (+1.6%)

Seats (35):

15 SVP (-2)
  5 F (-1)
  4 Lega (+3)
  3 STF (n.c.)
  3 Greens (n.c.)
  3 TK (+3)
  1 M5S (n.c.)
  1 PD (-1)
  0 Others (-2)

New Government: SVP-Lega (19/35 seats)

[palandio]

The far-right label really only makes sense when divided into far-right (German/Austrian nationalist), far-right (Italian nationalist) and far-right (Padanist).

[Tender Branson]

The far-right label really only makes sense when divided into far-right (German/Austrian nationalist), far-right (Italian nationalist) and far-right (Padanist).

That's a very outdated view.

Fact is that today's far-right in Austria and Italy (Strache and Salvini) work closely together and are best buddies.

I'm surprised that they have not campaigned together at a joint event in Bozen/Bolzano yet. Probably because they each want to shore up their own party base. I guess, personally they would.

[parochial boy]

I went to a bar with and Austrian and a South Tyrolean last night. This isn't the set up to a joke, but they both got rather offended when I jokingly suggested that South Tyrol was really a part of Austria - I think the South Tyroleans mostly see themselves as being South Tyrolean first and foremost.

[bigic]

My prediction for Sunday (very hard to predict):

41.1% SVP - Südtiroler Volkspartei (South Tyrol People's Party, centrist)
14.0% Freiheitliche (Freedomites, far-right)
  9.2% Lega Nord (Northern League, far-right)
  8.3% Süd-Tiroler Freiheit (South Tyrol Freedom, far-right)
  7.6% Grüne-Verdi (Greens, eco-left)
  7.4% Team Köllensperger (centrist)
  3.3% MoVimento 5 Stelle (5 Star Movement, centrist-populist)
 3.2% PD - Partito Democratico (Democratic Party, center-left)
  1.8% BürgerUnion (Citizen Union, right-wing)
  1.4% Forza Italia (Forward Italy, right-wing)
  1.1% L’Alto Adige nel Cuore/Fratelli d'Italia (far-right)
  0.7% Vereinte Linke-Sinistra Unita (United Left, far-left)
  0.6% CasaPound Italia (Neo-Nazi, Fascism, far-right)
  0.3% Noi per l’Alto Adige (We for South Tyrol)

Turnout: 81.3% (+1.6%)

Seats (35):

15 SVP (-2)
  5 F (-1)
  4 Lega (+3)
  3 STF (n.c.)
  3 Greens (n.c.)
  3 TK (+3)
  1 M5S (n.c.)
  1 PD (-1)
  0 Others (-2)

New Government: SVP-Lega (19/35 seats)

Why do you predict Lega? Is SVP-Greens or SVP-TK possible?

[palandio]

The far-right label really only makes sense when divided into far-right (German/Austrian nationalist), far-right (Italian nationalist) and far-right (Padanist).

That's a very outdated view.

Fact is that today's far-right in Austria and Italy (Strache and Salvini) work closely together and are best buddies.

I'm surprised that they have not campaigned together at a joint event in Bozen/Bolzano yet. Probably because they each want to shore up their own party base. I guess, personally they would.

Yes, I know that in the last European Parliament elections Die Freiheitlichen ran on the Lega Nord list. That's why I didn't lump the Lega together with the Italian nationalist parties. And it's true that the immigration issue among others has provided common ground for Italian and anti-Italian nationalists alike. Additionally some Italian New Rightists have sympathies for self-determination etc. for ideological reasons. But still parties like Fratelli d'Italia and Die Freiheitlichen are very much antipodes.

[Tender Branson]

My prediction for Sunday (very hard to predict):

41.1% SVP - Südtiroler Volkspartei (South Tyrol People's Party, centrist)
14.0% Freiheitliche (Freedomites, far-right)
  9.2% Lega Nord (Northern League, far-right)
  8.3% Süd-Tiroler Freiheit (South Tyrol Freedom, far-right)
  7.6% Grüne-Verdi (Greens, eco-left)
  7.4% Team Köllensperger (centrist)
  3.3% MoVimento 5 Stelle (5 Star Movement, centrist-populist)
 3.2% PD - Partito Democratico (Democratic Party, center-left)
  1.8% BürgerUnion (Citizen Union, right-wing)
  1.4% Forza Italia (Forward Italy, right-wing)
  1.1% L’Alto Adige nel Cuore/Fratelli d'Italia (far-right)
  0.7% Vereinte Linke-Sinistra Unita (United Left, far-left)
  0.6% CasaPound Italia (Neo-Nazi, Fascism, far-right)
  0.3% Noi per l’Alto Adige (We for South Tyrol)

Turnout: 81.3% (+1.6%)

Seats (35):

15 SVP (-2)
  5 F (-1)
  4 Lega (+3)
  3 STF (n.c.)
  3 Greens (n.c.)
  3 TK (+3)
  1 M5S (n.c.)
  1 PD (-1)
  0 Others (-2)

New Government: SVP-Lega (19/35 seats)

Why do you predict Lega? Is SVP-Greens or SVP-TK possible?

I and most experts assume that the Lega will become the strongest Italian party tomorrow, so they will have some sort of "mandate" to enter a coalition with the SVP - because under the autonomy proporz system an Italian party also has to be represented in the government (even if the SVP receives an absolute majority, btw).

There are reports that the SVP has ruled out a coalition with the inter-ethnic TK (= a popular, former German-speaking M5S politician, but who constantly attacks the SVP and hunts for their voters).

https://www.suedtirolnews.it/politik/svp-schliesst-koalition-mit-koellensperger-aus

SVP-Greens could also be possible, yes.

SVP-F and SVP-STF can be ruled out.

[DavidB.]

What an interesting election. Informative thread. Inclined to root for F or STF, but I'd be more than happy to cast a vote for the Lega if that is necessary to prevent the Greens from entering the government.