South Tyrol (Südtirol) regional election - 21 Oct. 2018

[Tender Branson]

SVP and Greens are strong in the postal ballot count so far.

Freedomites, PD and Berlusconi are doing horrible.

[Tender Branson]

In Bozen, the Berlusconi-party/Lega Nord went from 28% in 2008 to 8% now ...

[Tender Branson]

Interesting fight for 1st place in Bozen:

The SVP is currently about 80 votes ahead of the PD, with just over 1% of the vote left to count.

[Andrea]

is a seat projection available?

[Tender Branson]

is a seat projection available?

I don't see a seat projection on the website ...

Probably after all votes are counted.

But with 45%, the SVP should get 17 of the 35 seats, 1 short of an absolute majority.

[Andrea]

is a seat projection available?

I don't see a seat projection on the website ...

Probably after all votes are counted.

But with 45%, the SVP should get 17 of the 35 seats, 1 short of an absolute majority.

Thanks.

Meanwhile, for the new regional council (which is made up by all South Tyrol councillors + Trento councillors), the centre-left is far ahead in Trento elections.

[Tender Branson]

is a seat projection available?

I don't see a seat projection on the website ...

Probably after all votes are counted.

But with 45%, the SVP should get 17 of the 35 seats, 1 short of an absolute majority.

Thanks.

Meanwhile, for the new regional council (which is made up by all South Tyrol councillors + Trento councillors), the centre-left is far ahead in Trento elections.

Does the SVP count as "center-left" in this one ?

[Tender Branson]

SVP wins the capital Bozen by 4 votes !

100% counted there.

10.104 votes - 22.2% - SVP Südtiroler Volkspartei
10.100 votes - 22.2% - PD Partito Democratico - Demokratische Partei

http://wahlen.provinz.bz.it/dlistvt_ld_m15558_vg.htm

[Andrea]

is a seat projection available?

I don't see a seat projection on the website ...

Probably after all votes are counted.

But with 45%, the SVP should get 17 of the 35 seats, 1 short of an absolute majority.

Thanks.

Meanwhile, for the new regional council (which is made up by all South Tyrol councillors + Trento councillors), the centre-left is far ahead in Trento elections.

Does the SVP count as "center-left" in this one ?

In the previous term, SVP allied itself with PD-PATT-UPT (which are the main parties within the center-left coalition in Trento. In Trento they vote with the electoral system used for local elections in the rest of Italy. So there's the direct election of the province president who can be supported by a declared coalition of lists) to run the regional council.

[Tender Branson]

So, a SVP-PD coalition is the most likely scenario.

I'd prefer SVP-Greens though.

Also, turnout is now 79.4% (with the postal ballots that are already counted).

[Andrea]

Seats

SVP 17

Die Freiheitlichen 6
Greens 3
Süd-Tiroler Freiheit 3
PD 2
Berlusconi - Lega 1
5 Stars 1
Ladins Dolomites  1
L’Alto Adige nel cuore 1

[minionofmidas]

What's this High Etsch in the Heart outfit? Who did they take votes from?

[Andrea]

What's this High Etsch in the Heart outfit? Who did they take votes from?

l'Alto Adige nel cuore? Former Fini's followers. They split from Futuro and Libertà when the centrist block agreed to stand down from parliamentary constituencies in order to give PD and SVP a free run.

[minionofmidas]

Thanks!

[YL]

SVP wins the capital Bozen by 4 votes !

100% counted there.

10.104 votes - 22.2% - SVP Südtiroler Volkspartei
10.100 votes - 22.2% - PD Partito Democratico - Demokratische Partei

http://wahlen.provinz.bz.it/dlistvt_ld_m15558_vg.htm

I'm assuming the SVP carried every municipality.  They did win the five with Italian speaking majorities:

Bolzano/Bozen: Italian 73.80%; SVP 22.2%, PD 22.2%, Greens 11.4%, Forza/Lega Nord 8.2%, L'Alto Adige nel cuore 7.8%, Five Star 7.3%, Unitalia 7.3%, Freiheitlichen 4.4%

Laives/Leifers: Italian 71.50%; SVP 27.5%, PD 22.3%, Forza/Lega Nord 9.1%, Five Star 7.8%, Greens 7.3%,  L'Alto Adige nel cuore 6.2, Freiheitlichen 5.5%, Unitalia 5.3%

Salorno/Salurn: Italian 61.85%; SVP 39.0%, PD 17.5%, Freiheitlichen 8.2%, Five Star 7.1%, Greens 6.9%, Forza/Lega Nord 6.6%, L'Alto Adige nel cuore 4.3%

Bronzolo/Branzoll: Italian 62.01%; SVP 36.0%, PD 17.5%, Greens 13.7%, Five Star 6.2%,  Forza/Lega Nord 6.0%, Freiheitlichen 5.6%, L'Alto Adige nel cuore 5.5%, Unitalia 4.0%

Vadena/Pfatten: Italian 61.50%; SVP 41.5%, PD 15.0%, Greens 9.9%, Forza/Lega Nord 6.4%, L'Alto Adige nel cuore 6.2%, Five Star 6.0%, Freiheitlichen 5.7%

Was Italian-speaking turnout lower, or do some Italian speakers vote SVP?

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In the Ladin municipalities, the result was
SVP 59.8%
Freiheitlichen 15.5%
BürgerUnion/Ladins Dolomites/Wir Südtiroler 10.1%
Greens 5.9%
(others below 4%)

This is quite a big increase for Die Freiheitlichen (7.3% last time) and a big decrease for Ladins Dolomites compared with the 18.9% they got running on their own in 2008.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

And here's the supposedly 100% German speaking municipality of Martell:
SVP 340 (61.2%), Freiheitlichen 147 (26.4%), Südtiroler Freiheit 44 (7.9%), Greens 15, BürgerUnion/Ladins Dolomites/Wir Südtiroler 5, PD 2, Forza/Lega Nord 1, Unitalia 1, La Destra 1, everyone else zero.

[palandio]

It's particularly the centralist (center-) right that has lost many votes in the last 15 years or so in South Tyrol/High Etsch. In the 90s they (post-fascist MSI/AN) had even won a Senate constituency! What are the reasons and where did their voters go?

I think that ST/AA has benefitted from autonomy under the fiscal and economic aspect, German-, Ladin- and Italian-speaking inhabitants alike. The SVP and their Italian-speaking allies have been wise in extending the use of the German language without making the Italians feel oppressed in their daily life, so many may have lost their fear of becoming Germanized. You can see forms of "inclusive nationalism" in Scotland and to some extent in Catalonia as well (inclusion directed at the people on its soil). One important aspect may be the economic crisis in Italy that may have caused in rich regions like ST/AA the will to distance themselves from what they perceive as a mess not cause by themselves.

I think Italian-speaking ex-center-right voters went in all directions:
* In Italy there are not so many voters that switch between the center-right and the center-left. This may be different in ST/AA where in this election the Greens have got quite good results in the Italian-majority municipalities. Their might be flows from the center-right to the PD and from the PD to the Greens
* Many probably went to the SVP which might seem strange given that in the 90s they feared autonomy.
* Some might even have gone to German right-wing parties though from the numbers posted by YL it seems only few. This would not be so surprising given similar phenomenons in Alsatia.
* Abstention. As YL has pointed out, turnout might have decreased among Italian-speakers.

[Tender Branson]

Maps of election results:

http://wahlen.provinz.bz.it/grp_ld_vg.htm

[njwes]

What kind of crossover is there generally between the parties and the linguistic groups they represent?palandio mentioned that some Italian voters may have gone for the Freedomites; do German speakers vote in any reasonable number for Italian-speaking parties?

[Tender Branson]

What kind of crossover is there generally between the parties and the linguistic groups they represent?palandio mentioned that some Italian voters may have gone for the Freedomites; do German speakers vote in any reasonable number for Italian-speaking parties?

It's a similar situation like in Alabama or Mississippi with 90% of Whites voting for the GOP and 90% of Blacks voting for the Dems.

If Italy as a whole would be more economically successful then maybe a bigger share of German speaking voters would likely vote for the Italian parties.

Look for example at the CSU in Bavaria: The voters voted to give the party an absolute majority again because their economic policies helped Bavaria stay on top in the past years.

Same with the SVP in South Tyrol, just that they lost the absolute majority this time because of a change in leadership and a small scandal in the energy ministry.

Currently, German speaking voters have no real incentive to vote for the Italian parties, considering all the crap that takes place in Rome, Berlusconi related stuff etc.

But if for example the Italian mainstream parties manage to turn Italy into a European economic role model which helps South Tyrol in the future, more could vote for them. But the chances for this are close to 0% ...

[YL]

What kind of crossover is there generally between the parties and the linguistic groups they represent?palandio mentioned that some Italian voters may have gone for the Freedomites; do German speakers vote in any reasonable number for Italian-speaking parties?

My impression is that German (and Ladin) speakers voting for the Italian-speaking parties is a bit like Catholics in Northern Ireland voting DUP.

Here's the PD map (from Tender's link):


Note that the darkest shade here covers everything over 2%; every municipality which isn't in that shade was below 2%.  I can only find three municipalities other than the five Italian majority ones where they were over 10%: Auer, Neumarkt and Franzensfeste, all of which have substantial Italian minorites.  The other Italian-speaking parties have similar patterns (but with even lower votes).

One oddity is that the Five Star Movement did a bit better in the Ladin municipalities (where they were generally the strongest of the Italian speaking parties) than the German ones (but we're still only talking about 2% to 3% of the vote and fifth or sixth place):

[SPQR]

Hilarious results by PdL (which there is governed by Micaela Biancofiore,a total clown) and, as usual in local elections, by M5S.
PD improved a bit from 2008, but anyway it always ends up governing together with SVP,so doesn't really matter.

[palandio]

The South Tyrolean Greens and their indirect/direct predecessors like South Tyrolean Lotta Continua and New Left are somehow crossover.
Collaboration with SEL has provided them with gains in the Italian-speaking communities, but they have still by far the most balanced electorate.

[minionofmidas]

If Italy as a whole would be more economically successful then maybe a bigger share of German speaking voters would likely vote for the Italian parties.

Lolno. (There wouldn't be an SVP today if that had been true in the 50s and 60s, just for starters.)

[ingemann]

If Italy as a whole would be more economically successful then maybe a bigger share of German speaking voters would likely vote for the Italian parties.

Lolno. (There wouldn't be an SVP today if that had been true in the 50s and 60s, just for starters.)

There are some quite different reasons to the South Tyroleans being very hostile to the Italian state in the 50ties and 60ties, which had nothing to do with economic reasons, and everything to do with South Tyrol being run from Trentino by the Italian majority, 2 decades of persecution under the kingdom and fascism, the Italian still being dominated by the first generation settlers and South Tyrol lacking any autonomy in general.

[minionofmidas]

And the memory of the 20s and 30s treatment much fresher in the mind.