South Tyrol (Südtirol) regional election - 21 Oct. 2018

[Tender Branson]

No, eligible postal voters - people who have the right to request an absentee ballot.

Ah yeah ... I thought those 28.000 have already requested one.

So is there any number somewhere about how many requested a postal ballot ?

If 5000 are estimated to be returned, probably some 6000 requested ?

[Andrea]

From what I understand, residents outside Italy had to present a request only if they want to come back to South Tyrol to vote. 891 presented it. So the rest (27316) has been automatically enrolled as postal voters.

For people still resident in South Tyrol but living somewhere else, they had to present a specific request to vote by post. 1483 presented it.

[Tender Branson]

So the rest (27316) has been automatically enrolled as postal voters.

Do you know if those 27.316 did get an absentee ballot sent to them automatically ?

[Tender Branson]

I found this English piece on the website of the South-Tyrolean Freedom:

South-Tyrolean Freedom Movement

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http://www.suedtiroler-freiheit.com/south-tyrolean-freedom-movement

Notice also how the SVP, the Freedomites and the South-Tyrolean Freedom do not use the ".it" domain in their websites ... SVP uses ".eu", while the others use ".com"

[Andrea]

So the rest (27316) has been automatically enrolled as postal voters.

Do you know if those 27.316 did get an absentee ballot sent to them automatically ?

I don't know. This is the German press release by the authority regarding postal votes
http://www.provinz.bz.it/lpa/285.asp?aktuelles_action=4&aktuelles_article_id=437542

[Tender Branson]

So the rest (27316) has been automatically enrolled as postal voters.

Do you know if those 27.316 did get an absentee ballot sent to them automatically ?

I don't know. This is the German press release by the authority regarding postal votes
http://www.provinz.bz.it/lpa/285.asp?aktuelles_action=4&aktuelles_article_id=437542

Grazie ...

The article doesn't say though if the postal ballots are sent to them automatically or if they still needed to request them.

If they got them automatically, far more than 5000 would be returned.

If they still needed to request them, 5000 could be accurate.

[YL]

Notice also how the SVP, the Freedomites and the South-Tyrolean Freedom do not use the ".it" domain in their websites ... SVP uses ".eu", while the others use ".com"

It'd be more surprising if they did use .it.  Similarly, the SNP, Plaid Cymru and Mebyon Kernow all use .org, while the SDLP and Sinn Féin naturally use .ie.

Back in South Tyrol, the BürgerUnion use .st, which is meant to belong to São Tomé and Príncipe.

[Tender Branson]

Next turnout update in 15 minutes ...

[Tender Branson]

5pm turnout:

56.6%

2008: 55.7%

Turnout down by 2% in the capital Bozen, but up almost everywhere else.

Still don't know if these figures already include returned postal ballots or not.

This is important because this is the first time postal voting is possible in Südtirol.

[Tender Branson]

Does anyone know if South Tyrol has non-enforced mandatory voting like Italy, or not ?

[minionofmidas]

Yes.

Also, there's a rule that at least one first language speaker of Ladin must be among those elected, but I didn't see details on how that is enforced.

[Tender Branson]

Postal ballots were not included in the 11am and 5pm turnout figures.

They will be included in the 10pm figures though.

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So, if Durnwalder estimates that ca. 5000 postal ballots were returned, then turnout was ca. 58% at 5pm, instead of the 56.6% without postals.

[freek]

Yes.

Also, there's a rule that at least one first language speaker of Ladin must be among those elected, but I didn't see details on how that is enforced.

I found this pdf: http://www.provinz.bz.it/vote/landtag2008/info/downloads/testo_coordinato_regionale.pdf

It is a coordinated text of the law for the elections of the regional council, I am not sure if it still in force. Anyway, it uses the following method (in article 65), after all seats have already been provisionally assigned to candidates:

1. All Ladin candidates of parties that received at least 1 seat are placed on 1 list, ordered on the number of personal votes.
2. If none of these candidates has already been elected, the Ladin candidate with the most votes is elected. He replaces the provisionally elected candidate with the least number of votes of the same party.

[Andrea]

I counted 22 Ladin candidates, half of them in Ladins Dolomites list

[Senator Cris]

Scrutiny at 7.00 AM (Italy Time) of tomorrow.

[Tender Branson]

Final turnout numbers coming in now ...

Currently around 77-78%.

[Tender Branson]

Big turnout drop in the capital Bozen (-9%), with only very slight drops elsewhere.

[Andrea]

49% polling stations reported

SVP 42.6%
Freiheitlichen 16.2%
PD 8.8%
Greens 8.6%
Süd-Tiroler Freiheit 6.4%
Forza Alto Adige - Lega Nord 3.4%
5 Stars 3.1%
L’Alto Adige nel cuore 2.9%
Unitalia Movimento per l’Alto Adige 2.4%
Civic List 2.1%
 Ladins Dolomites 2%
The Right 0.7%
Communist Refoundation 0.5%
Italian Communists 0.3%

[Tender Branson]

Postal ballots were not included in the 11am and 5pm turnout figures.

They will be included in the 10pm figures though.

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This newspaper report was wrong after all, the 10pm turnout was 77.7% and did not include postal voters.

Postal votes will be counted later today but I have no clue how many of them were returned.

[Tender Branson]

SVP, Freedomites and STF percentages will continue to rise a bit, because Bozen is almost fully counted, while the rest of Süd-Tirol where these parties are strong are still only 50-60% in ...

71% now counted:

43.3% SVP Südtiroler Volkspartei
17.3% Die Freiheitlichen
  8.5% Verdi - Grüne - Verc - Sel
  8.1% PD Partito Democratico - Demokratische Partei
  6.8% Süd-Tiroler Freiheit
  3.1% Forza Alto Adige - Lega Nord - Team Autonomie
  2.9% Movimento Cinque Stelle
  2.6% L’Alto Adige nel cuore
  2.2% Unitalia Movimento per l’Alto Adige
  1.9% Scelta Civica per l’Alto Adige-Südtirol
  1.9% Bündnis BürgerUnion - Ladins Dolomites - Wir Südtiroler
  0.7% La Destra Minniti
  0.4% Partito della Rifondazione Comunista
  0.3% Partito dei Comunisti Italiani-Südtiroler Kommunisten

[Tender Branson]

My prediction:

45% SVP
16% Freiheitliche
10% PD
10% Greens
  6% Süd-Tiroler Freiheit
  6% Berlusconi/Lega Nord
  7% Others

Turnout: 77% (-3%)

Probably a SVP-PD coalition.

I overestimated Berlusconi by a lot, also the PD and the Greens.

And I underestimated the small parties by a lot.

[Tender Branson]

The Greens seem to win the battle against the PD.

[Tender Branson]

Bozen 95% counted.

SVP, Freedom and STF strongholds still only about 70-80% in.

SVP could still go up to 45%, the Freedomites to 18% and the STF to 7.5%

[Andrea]

The Greens seem to win the battle against the PD.

PD should be passed by Süd-Tiroler Freiheit now. PD could probably fall back to their 2008 result more or less.

[Tender Branson]

83% now counted (excl. postal ballots)

44.4% SVP Südtiroler Volkspartei
17.6% Die Freiheitlichen
  8.6% Verdi - Grüne - Verc - Sel
  7.5% PD Partito Democratico - Demokratische Partei
  6.9% Süd-Tiroler Freiheit
  2.8% Forza Alto Adige - Lega Nord - Team Autonomie
  2.7% Movimento Cinque Stelle
  2.4% L’Alto Adige nel cuore
  2.1% Bündnis BürgerUnion - Ladins Dolomites - Wir Südtiroler
  2.0% Unitalia Movimento per l’Alto Adige
  1.8% Scelta Civica per l’Alto Adige-Südtirol
  0.6% La Destra Minniti
  0.4% Partito della Rifondazione Comunista
  0.3% Partito dei Comunisti Italiani-Südtiroler Kommunisten