Iraq- final results

[Silent Hunter]

These are provisional, but:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/4261035.stm

The Shia parties got 48%.

I think this is a lesson about making assumptions on 10% of votes counted.

[Jake]

Not to bad.  Kurds get 26% and the Shias get 62%.  Not to bad.

[phk]

We would have had higher Sunni turnout if they let Saddam run.

[minionofmidas]

These are provisional, but:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/4261035.stm

The Shia parties got 48%.

I think this is a lesson about making assumptions on 10% of votes counted.

Yep, that's pretty low.

[Jake]

I was suprised about the 2% turnout in some Sunni areas.  I mean, sure, I thought it would be low, but 2% ?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I was suprised about the 2% turnout in some Sunni areas.  I mean, sure, I thought it would be low, but 2% ?

like was said above, that wouldn't be a problem if Saddam was on the ballot.

at least it's under a majority. Now the other parties have to fight like hell to stop the Iran party from establishing a theocracy.

[Erc]

Afaik, Al-Anbar contains Ramadi, Fallujah, and lots of desert.  Not too surprising there...although still a bit shocking.

Good to see that the Shias will still need the Unholy Alliance with the Kurds to keep their grip on power.

[Beet]

Who are the "others"? I would expect to see the Shia's form a coalition with them, whoever they are.

[Jake]

Wait, the Allawi List and Sistani backed List can still form a coalition can't they?

[phk]

Why would they want to?

[Jake]

Why would they want to?

So they have Shiite rule and not a mixed Kurdish-Shia Government.  I mean the Shiite's are the bad guys who want to control Iraq and thurn it into Iran 2.0 or some nonsense. 

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I guess if I lived there I'd vote for the Kurdish ticket even if I wasn't a Kurd. Isn't the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan pretty leftist anyway? I hear they're more of a social democratic group as opposed to the hardline communist Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), although the PKK would definately be preferable to the Syrian and Iranian governments they're fighting.

[Jake]

I'd vote for Allawi's list most likely. 

[Colin]

I hear they're more of a social democratic group as opposed to the hardline communist Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), although the PKK would definately be preferable to the Syrian and Iranian governments they're fighting.

The PKK is only operating in Turkey and Syria. They currently do not operate in Iran and they have become increasingly marginalized since the capture of their leader Ocalan. The PKK has lowered attacks as Turkish and Syrian police have clamped down on Kurdish dissidents leading to less terrorist attacks by the PKK. Also the PKK does not run in Iraq. The closest party to you would probably be the Workers List whose largest party is the Communist Party of Iraq. 

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

OK, I looked it up. There are three Kurdish groups:

Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (left)
Kurdistan Workers Party (extreme left)
Kurdistan Democratic Party (center to right)

While Saddam was in power and he had little authority in the Kurdish regions due to the no fly zones the PUK and KDP each set up their own governments and got into a little civil war, with the PUK backed by Iran, and the KDP backed by Saddam's government.

So if I was a Kurd living in Iraq I'd guess I'd be a PUK member, if I lived elsewhere I'd be PKK. But since the groups have merged in Iraq for now it'd be a moot point currently.

[Colin]

Again I say that you would probably support the Worker's List and probably the Communist Party of Iraq.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Do they have any seats? I wouldn't wast emy vote on a party that gets no seats.

I was also talking about what group I'd be a fighter in while Saddam was in power.

[Notre Dame rules!]

What group you'd be a fighter in?   Are you currently in the US Military?  If you're not willing to fight against Saddam and Bin Laden in your own military, then I find it VERY doubtful that you would be willing to do so as a Kurd or any other ethnic group.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If the US had a fascist government I would fight against it. I'm not going to join the military under a president I hate to be shipped off to fight in wars I don't agree with. Furthermore the US military demotes people for mud wrestling, guerilla groups give you a lot more freedom.

[2952-0-0]

All the following parties are sure to get seats. And BRTD, the People's Union will have two out of 275 seats.


United Iraqi Alliance
4,075,292
48.19%

Democratic Patriotic Alliance of Kurdistan
2,175,551
25.73%

Iraqi List
1,168,943
13.8%

The Iraqis
150,680
1.78%

Iraqi Turkmen Front
93,480
1.11%
 
National Independent Cadres and Elites
69,938
0.83%

People's Union
69,920
0.83%

Islamic Group of Kurdistan
60,592
0.72%

Islamic Action Organization In Iraq
43,205
0.51%
 
National Democratic Alliance
36,795
0.44%

National Rafidain List
36,255
0.43%

[ATFFL]

Keep in mind a 2/3rds supermajority is needed to get things done in teh National Assembly.  While the two Shia groups could form a ruling coalition, it is unlikely that they woudl form a Shia theocracy.

[Hitchabrut]

Kurds did surprisingly well :-).

[opebo]

Kurds did surprisingly well :-).

Yeah, the results look faked to me.  I think the US bumped up the Kurd vote and reduced the Shia vote.

[Jake]

Kurds did surprisingly well :-).

Yeah, the results look faked to me.  I think the US bumped up the Kurd vote and reduced the Shia vote.

You are such a dumbass

[M]

Rumor is that we can expect Kurdish Sunni Jalil Talabani for President, current president and Sunni Arab Ghazi al-Yawar for Speaker of the Assembly, and a moderate Shi'ite (Chalabi? Mahdi?) for PM. This is something of an attempt to copy the olf Lebanese formula, in use for 80 years with brief interruption during the civil war: Christian president, Sunni PM, Shi'ite speaker. (In the Lebanese case, all were Arab except for two Greek presidents).