Norwegian Parliamentary Election 2013

[politicus]

The right wing populist Progress Party gets its worst result since 2001 with 13,7% in an Ipsos MMI poll from Dagbladet published today.

Høyre and Fremskrittspartiet no longer have a majority.


Rødt/Red 2,0%

SV/Socialist Left 5,7%

Arbeiderpartiet/Labour 28,0%

Senterpartiet/Centre Party 4,9%

Venste/Liberals 5,4%

Kristelig Folkeparti/Christian Peoples Party 4,7%

Høyre/Conservatives 32,5%

Fremskrittspartiet/Progress Party 13,7%

Others 3,2%

Partibaromeret at TV2 Norge with all major Norwegian polls.
http://politisk.tv2.no/spesial/partibarometeret/

[politicus]

Finally, another possible reason for the growth in the support of Høyre is that they have toned down a lot of their more controversial policies. They don't talk as much about privatization and tax cuts as they did in 2005 for example. I think that is why they have gained some voters that used to support Arbeiderpartiet. The only problem is that a lot of the party base thinks they have gone to far towards the center. That isn't really a big problem yet, but it could become one in the future.

Well, that's basically how you win elections in Scandinavia as a big Conservative party these days, go towards the centre, make the public employees feel safe (especially the women) so they trust you not to butcher the welfare state and then slowly move society to the right after you win. Venstre did it in Denmark, Moderaterna is doing it in Sweden and I bet it will work just fine for Solberg in Norway. Generally those parties haven't lost much support. Norway may eventually get something similar to our Liberal Alliance polling 4-5% (depending on PPs tax policies), but it will still be worth it for Solberg and Høyre.

[politicus]

Good to hear; what a horrid coalition that would be.

SV have lost two thirds of their vote since 2005, and yet from that link I can't see who's benefited? Are they d/k/stay at homes?

Dunno about 2005-09. Since 2009 50%+ of the loss has gone to Labour and 17% to Others incl. Red and the Greens, then 10% to the Liberals (makes sense since they are Social Liberal and green) and 10% to Conservatives, which must be the "join a winning team" effect. Then you got around 10% left which is spread on Center, PP and Christian Peoples Party.

Some voters always go in strange directions when you got a multiparty system. In Denmark we have quite a few people going straight from our super-humanitarian, EU loving, globalization friendly Social Liberals to DPP.

http://blogg.tv2.no/kjetilloset/2013/03/15/dette-er-velgerne-som-snur-ryggen-til-lysbakken/

[politicus]

Norwegian polls are quite volatile at the moment, this one from Norstat for the newspaper Vårt Land from 2/5  has PP +20% and Labour almost closing the gap to the Conservatives.

Red 1,1

Socialist Left 4,3

Labour 28,3

Center 4,7

Greens 1,2

Liberals 3,9

Christin Peoples Party 5,5

Conservatives 29,6

PP 20,5

Others  0,8


A majority of 89 seats to PP + Conservatives. The Liberals is below the threshold and SL is getting dangerously close. Labour has mobilized a lot of "non-voters" and gained a bit from PP and Conservatives, but PP gets their votes back from other parties. Soc. Left has lost 2,3% from the last Norstat poll.

EDIT: I am mainly posting this in the hope that one of our Norwegian posters can explain why PP is bouncing up and down in the polls at the moment. It looks puzzling to me.

[politicus]

Venstres Liberal views on drugs and their refugee policy has also been mentioned as areas that may be a problem for Høyre (and Progress, of course).

[politicus]

Venstres Liberal views on drugs and their refugee policy has also been mentioned as areas that may be a problem for Høyre (and Progress, of course).

I think Venstre knows that they’re not going to get a more liberal immigration policy. Høyre doesn’t really want it, and FrP certainly don't. If they play their cards right they might get something in return for supporting more strict immigration policies. For example some reforms in the government's drug policy, environmental policies (which Høyre also want) and maybe some more funds for foreign aid.
But the main dividing lines between the three parties mentioned are on immigration and the environment. They agree on a whole host of other issues.

Its clear that they could strike a deal, but its still a problematic constellation in many ways.

Venste is also "softies" on law and order issues, at least relatively speaking. That could pose a problem too.

Norwegian Venstre and the kind of issues that separates them from the other centre-right parties is closely parallel to Radikale Venstre in Denmark, so I tend to assume that PP hates Venstre the same way DPP hates Radikale Venstre and wouldnt want to work with them in any context, but this may be a false comparison.

How do you see the PP/Venstre relationship?

[politicus]

Just put up a Norwegian link. We are quite a few Scandinavians and Google Translate is an option for the rest.

Too bad Norway is going to participate in the "race to the bottom" regarding corporate taxes. Everything gets much more complex and bureaucratic once you drop the neutrality principle.

No biggie, but since the plans for changing the tax system is not directly related to the coming election its general news and belongs in the Great Nordic Thread.

[politicus]

Hmm.

The government has only 35% and the opposition has 60-65%.

I still don't know why exactly.

Norway's economy is doing relatively well, so why the backlash ?

The basics are: Government fatigue after 8 years, scandals, negative media coverage and Hoyre becoming more centrist combined with core supporters losing enthusiasm for the government (demobilization), which is of course also a classic fatigue sign.

One aspect I hadn't seen before: Like most SDs in Europe Ap is losing workers. In a poll cited Labours support in the industrial workers union Fellesforbundet is down from 58% to 43%. That's is still quite good compared with other northern European countries, but 49% of Fellesforbundets members would vote centre-right.

The high overall costs in Norway make it tough for the export industry. Norways economy is running on oil, so to speak, and that is hurting other sectors.

Curious about two reasons mentioned in the article: lack of anti-begging law (Stoltenberg seen as too soft?) and sending out asylum seeking children.