Norwegian Parliamentary Election 2013

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Left came back from quite a way down last time, of course, though not so close to the election. Oh well.

You'd have to be a quite unfeeling person not to feel as an outsider that the Norwegian Labour Party deserves a victory this year. What do polls say exactly?

Some poll averages here

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They've pulled off some impressive comeback efforts in recent elections, but seem to be too far behind for that to be realistic this time round. It's a shame, but they'll be back before long.

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Got on the news here as well.

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We have school mock elections too, but they aren't so well organised. I tried to rig one once.

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Just a very quick note from your friendly neighbourhood dictator: debate is good, but certain... er... rhetorical flourishes (particularly those more than verging on hyperbole) should, perhaps, be avoided.

Regular programming has resumed.

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Just finished a very pretty new county base map.

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When do the polls close?

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Oslo usually votes a tad to the right of the rest of the country, but only a tad.

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They're stronger in Oslo than the rest of the country; does that mean they'll probably make it?

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So far their losses actually seem worse than average in Oslo. So they may still be fycked.

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Wonder how their supporters will react to them being in government, actually.

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Oslo is very tight between the two big parties: currently 30.4% Ap, 29.9% H (with 73% counted) earlier in the evening H were slight in front. The Conservatives are comfortably ahead in Bergen and Stavanger, while Labour is comfortably ahead in Trondheim.

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Quick little map showing leading party stuff.

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Use the magick of right click to bring up the proper sized version, etc.

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I will also be doing - at some point - borough maps for Oslo and maybe maps by municipality elsewhere. Possibly.

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Just to introduce something that those who've not followed Norwegian elections before that's not unnoticeable in voting patterns, language:



Blue shows municipalities where the official written language is Nynorsk, red where it is Bokmål, and grey where are neutral.

Also found a map of dialect groups:



West Norwegian, North Norwegian, East Norwegian and Trøndelag Norwegian. It's not so hard to work out where's where.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Results in municipalities with a population over 50,000:

Oslo - Ap 30.4, H 29.8, Frp 11.7, V 8.2, SV 6.3, MDG 5.6, R 3.2, KrF 2.8
Bergen - H 33.6, Ap 25.6, Frp 13.2, V 6.9, SV 6.4, KrF 5.7, MDG 4.0, Sp 2.0, R 1.2
Trondheim - Ap 36.8, H 24.2, Frp 12.5, SV 7.2, V 6.3, MDG 4.1, KrF 3.1, Sp 2.6, R 1.2
Stavanger - H 33.4, Ap 25.9, Frp 15.8, V 6.5, KrF 6.2, SV 5.2, MDG 3.2, Sp 1.6
Kristiansand - H 29.6, Ap 24.9, Frp 15.8, KrF 12.7, V 5.4, SV 3.3, MDG 3.0, Krist. 1.3, Pp 1.2, Sp 1.0
Fredrikstad - Ap 37.6, H 25.8, FrP 18.7, KrF 5.1, V 3.7, SV 2.5, MDG 2.4, Sp 1.7
Skien - Ap 35.8, H 23.5, Frp 20.7, KrF 7.2, V 3.4, SV 3.3, MDG 2.0, Sp 1.9, Krist. 1.0
Tromsø - Ap 30.5, H 24.2, Frp 16.1, SV 9.5, V 5.3, KrF 3.7, MDG 3.3, R 2.9, Sp 2.9
Drammen - H 33.6, Ap 32.3, Frp 18.0, V 4.6, KrF 3.1, SV 2.8, MDG 2.5, Sp 1.4
Sandnes - H 31.1, Ap 21.9, Frp 20.4, KrF 10.5, V 4.6, Sp 3.6, SV 3.0, MDG 2.2
Sarpsborg - Ap 39.4, H 22.9, Frp 20.3, KrF 5.3, V 2.9, Sp 2.8, SV 1.9, MDG 1.4, Krist. 1.2, Pp 1.0

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Larger map can be seen via the magick of right click.

But isn't that so very pretty?

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Psephologically speaking, Oslo is basically the classic Northern European City.

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I think I've seen it explained before, but Labour's strength in many inland rural areas (especially Oppland, Hedmark and Nord-Trøndelag, and extending to the head of Sognefjord) is a feature of Norwegian political geography which really stands out on those maps.

A lot of that is about class as many of these places are not exactly non-industrial (the various timber and related industries - sawmills, papermills etc -  being a major one, but also mining - or a history of it - in some areas and the occasional bit of really heavy industry: for instance, Årdal - the place you spotted at the head of the Sognefjord - is an aluminium smelting town), but also there's also political organisation and political tradition.

From an article written in 1962:

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[Filuwaúrdjan]

but the most fascinating divide in Hedmark and Oppland I believe is the historical divide between "big farmers", who almost exclusivliy voted Farmers Party (Center), and Conservative (Høyre), and small farmes, "housmen", which was dependent on the "big farmers". The "housmen" was among the first norwegians to be radicalized in the last half of the 19th century, and has voted Labour ever since.

Interesting. Would smallholder or tenant farmer be the right translation, or is it implicitly both? Or is it more like agricultural labourers who are also smallholders?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Thanks (and that explains everything else as well). Does he actually own his own house or is it a tied cottage? You know those weren't abolished (legislatively) for farm workers here until the 1970s?

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Given the obvious issue of land quality I was sort of assuming something like that but, yeah...

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Farmers wives.

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Though the importance of communes - except in urban areas where they're basically like any other local authority - is greatly exaggerated.