Norwegian Parliamentary Election 2013

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

You are totally right in that the economy is doing well, at least when you compare with practically all other West European countries. Still, the opposition (for obvious reasons) and the media (where bad news and sensationalism is always better than good news) has created a narrative in which everything is somehow going wrong, or is not good enough - a narrative that the Red-Greens has not succeded in changing.
Other than 22/7, there have been several  scandals.

Sounds similar to the situation in Sweden back in 2006 when the Alliance swept into power. It's not an identical situation (The economy was good but employment wasn't as good as in Norway)

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

This is a fascinating election, and I'd be interested in knowing the electoral geography in Norway and other Nordic countries and the history behind it. Why do rural areas(which, in most other countries, including my own) vote for left-wing parties by such overwhelming numbers, while underperforming in urban areas?

Well too be honest the fact that in Scandinavia "rural areas vote left while urban areas vote right" is really a half-truth and over simplification. Poor rural areas vote for the left. Rich urban areas vote for the right. There are plenty of rich and righ-wing rural areas, and likewise poor and left-wing cities.

In that way we're no different from say Britain. Very urban Chelsea is also very right-wing, while small rural mining towns in the north of England is anything but right-wing.

Norway, Sweden, and Finland  just happen to have more poor rural areas, and more wealthy urban areas than on average.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

It looks to me like it's game over already now.

Or has any incumbent Norway government ever made up a 25-30% deficit in just 3 months ?

Never say never in the world of politics.

Norwegians have a way of changing minds quickly when it comes to voting. And it's also important to note that governments that are unpopular mostly because people have grwon tired of them (which seems to be the major problem here) compared to actually being an out-right bad government tend to make very good recoveries in the election run-ups.

Just look at Denmark. Helle were suppouse to have a cake-walk, but it ended up being a rather narrow victory in the end. I fully expect the centre-right to win here, but it's not going to be this big of a victory.   

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Will Venstre really sit in the same government as Frp?
Wouldn't a Höyre/Frp/KrF government be possible if those three have a majority together?

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

It's a shame, but they'll be back before long.

Indeed, Norwegians love switching government. As opposed to Sweden who loves to reelect it's governments. (forever and ever) 

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Audun Lysbakken from SV

OMG!



Really cute! Almost makes it a bit sad his party might end up out of parliament. [/shallowness]

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

My results:

V - 28%
H - 26%
Frp - 25%
KrF - 22%
Sp - 21%
MdG - 16%
Ap - 16%
SV - 11%
R - 8%

No surprise in the ranking, but a bit shocked I agree so little with any of the parties.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Walked by SVs election booth on Karl Johans gate (Oslos main street, Swedes may make as much fun as they wish of the fact that it's named after a Swedish king)

He was as much Norwegian as he was Swedish. It's not like he was born here, or spoke a single word of Swedish.

Though we elected him while you were conquered by him...   

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

And now the Swedes come to Norway to work for us.

Haha, well I can't deny it. A third of my friends worked in Norway this summer.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

This, of course, ignores the fact that there are actually quite a few people who can't tell the difference between left and right.

*Insert obvious Stupid Norwegians joke here*

One would hope that as the poster is next to a road, the people driving cars on that road does know which side of the road they're on... and thus should know the difference.   

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

This, of course, ignores the fact that there are actually quite a few people who can't tell the difference between left and right.

*Insert obvious Stupid Norwegians joke here*   

Mind to share some of these jokes with us?

A Norwegian electrician got a phone call from an old lady asking him to fix her broken doorbell. Swift at work the Norwegian drove away to attend to the problem immediatley. However it was not long before he returned disgruntled. His collegue asked him why he had returned so quckily, and was told that he had rung on the door seven times yet no one had come and opened.   

A Swedish math professor was working at Oslo University. After having graded the latest exams he announced to his Norwegian students that he'd had no choice but to fail 80% of them, at which point one of the brighter students shouted: "That's not even possible, we're not that many in this class."

It was a great tragedy in  Bergen the day the library had to close, after a break-in where the culprits had stolen both books.       

What do you call an intelligent person in Norwegian?
Tourist

A big buff Norwegian was bragging in a bar that no Swede had ever been brave enough to tell a stupid Norwegian joke to his face. At which point a Swedish guy quipped that it wasn't lack of bravery so much as the fact that no Swede could be bothered to spend an hour explaining the joke for him. 

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Once there was a blind Norwegian, a deaf Dane and a wheelchair bound Swede who came upon a magic cavern. They were granted one wish each when they entered the cavern. First the blind Norwegian entered. He wished to see again. When he came out, he said
-   I can see.

Then the deaf Dane went into the cave. He wanted to be able to hear. When he returned, he said
-   I can hear.

Then the wheelchair bound Swede rolled into the cave to make a wish. When he came out he said
-   Look mates, I’ve got two new wheels. (Titta kompisar, två nya hjul.)

A Swede, a Dane and a Norwegian was stranded together at a deserted island in the Pacific. After several months on the island the three's hope of ever being rescued was declining, until one day they came upon a magic lamp containing a genie. As the genie was freed he granted the three Scandinavians a wish wach.
The Swede asked to be returned to his family, and disappeared. The Dane asked for the same thing, and also disappeared.
The Norwegian looked around and said "Well I'm gonna get awfully lonely out here so I wish for the Swede and the Dane to come back."       

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

I just read that you're not allowed to sell alcohol in Norway on election day, as to keep people from voting drunk. Very fascinating.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Ah it wouldn't be a real Scandinavian election without DL coming on and complaining about the centre-right parties actions and political ideology. Makes me nostalgic for the good old Swedish election 2010 thread. Don't ya worry DL, next year around this time you'll be ranting about why people still vote for FP, and why Stockholm has turned so heavily to the right. I can't wait.

 

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

The Norwegian FRP is in my opinion the least right-wing off the Scandinavian far right parties. FRP started as a tax protest/populist party in the seventies as the Danish FRP did. The danish FRP became the more nationalist and anti muslim. The swedish SD however grew out of the racist and extreme right BSS and Sverigepartiet. They call themseleves social conservatvie but many off the grassroots are still nationalist and there is a conflict there. The finnish PS is populist and somewhat nationalist but not that hardcore. Both PS and DF are memmbers off the Euroskpetic EFD but the Swedish SD is cooperting with the French FN and would join a far right group in EP.

From left to right
FRP (Norway) PS (Finland) DF (Denmark) SD (Sweden)

Very well explained. Though I'd probably list DF to the right of SD, despite SD's more racist roots.

For that matter why not a "grand coalition of Labour, Hoyre and Ventre"

Because Scandinavia isn't Austria or Germany. Grand Coalitions only happens here if there's a World War. You know stuff like this DL, you've lived in Scandinavia for God's sake.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Just because a government is boring, but still manages the state well, you just simply vote for Conservatives ...

If that was true shouldn't you vote for either SPÖ or ÖVP instead of the Greens, since they have also been objectively quite good in government if you look at employment and similar numbers?

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Live stream from NRK, Norwegian National Television.

Works for us foreigners. Enjoy.

Maybe Norway has some important problems too regarding the current government that I as an outsider don't know ... (so, please tell me).

I'll leave that to the Norwegians to explain. They have the expertise knowledge after all.
I'll just say that voters sometimes can be cruel and irrational. After all the Swedish government hasn't done anything particularly wrong in the last two years either, and is objectively very successful, but has still gone from having their own majority in polls to barely breaking 40%.   

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Alright some predictions

- Ap will be the largest party.
- H and Krf will under-preform slightly from polls, Frp and V will over-preform slightly.
- MdG will pass 4%, SV will fall below 4%.
- The next government will consist of H+Frp+Krf+Sp. (This is a bold one)  

I understand it's easy to look at the Norwegian election and see it simply as a case of voters being bored, however:

- Arrogance among the governing parties
- A general sense that they are only managing, not governing, or presenting any visions whatsoever
- The peripheries feeling neglected at the same time as the cities feel they are being neglected as well
- As well as fatigue

Is going to be what defeats the government.

So exactly the same reason the Alliance government will loose next year over here in the brother land. Our peoples are more alike than either side would like to admit.  

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

As for your prediction - why would the right-wing cooperate with Sp instead of Venstre?

I just have a hunch that even though the battle ax between Venstre and Frp has officially been buried there might be trouble when the winners try to create a government together. The Centre Party is traditionally closer to the right, and as I've understood it there are elements of the party who very much wishes to return it to the centre-right camp, and they seem much less principally opposed towards Frp than Venstre does.
 
Sure it's unlikely, but that's why I called it a bold prediction.      

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Right, party vote prediction:

Ap: 30,4%
H: 25,8%
Frp: 17,7%
V: 5,7%
Sp: 5,6%
Krf 5,3%
MdG: 4,0%
SV: 3,8%
R: 1,2%

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

NTB exit poll

Christian Dem  10 seats
Liberal              8 seats
Center party    13 seats
Socialist left      7 seats
Progress          31 seats
Labor              55 seats
Conservative    44 seats

(seems to be same as NRK)

That's because it's not an Exit Poll.
Apparently, not all polls close at the same time in Norway, and this is a projection based on the votes already counted. But it includes no votes from Oslo, which makes it a bit pointless.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Listening to Krf leaders speech. Nynorsk doesn't sound like Norwegian, it sounds like a strange wimpy dialect of Swedish. <.<

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Beautiful work as always, Al.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

I think three things could aliviate this situation and turn the female representation closer to where Sweden is at the moment (45% or higher):

1. The reduction in the number of fylker from 19 to for instance 15, 12 or 10. Some have even suggested a number as low as 5 to 7, though then called "regions" instead of "fylker".

That's bogus. Sweden has 29 constituencies. So the number is hardly the issue.
The problem is that the parties don't put women at the number one spot.
Sure you can try to "solve" the problem by some awful affirmative action law, but if the parties think it's a problem (which they of course should think) they should look over their internal party structure instead. Sweden has been able to reach 48% women in parliament without some lazy legislation to fall back on.

Thankfully I don't believe we'll see such nonsense from this new government. If we're really lucky they might even repeal the horrible affirmative action law already in place against company boards.      

Can someone enlighten me why Centre runs so many/SV runs so few female candidates?

I can't speak for SV, but the Nordic Centre Parties has always been on the forefront when it comes to female politicians. There are several reasons for that, which I unfortunately can't go into much detail about, but too make a long story short women in the Scandinavian country side has always had a stronger position tan those living in towns and cities, and the farmer parties often had a strong network for female members, as Al pointed out, often Farmer's wives (and/or daughters) 

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Wow, we have about 290 of them in Sweden and we're twice your population. AND the smallest ones here are already ridiculously small.

Oh Gustaf, you with your Stockholm perspective on everything.


Anyway the reason Norway has so many more municipalities is that they've  never had the big municipal reform that we had here in the early 70's. Before that Sweden also had a ridiculous number of them.

The problem with such reforms is that they are incredibly unpopular. It's the classical "But not in my neighborhood" dilemma. People in general tend to agree that changes are needed, but they don't want it to be their municipality. 

Wealthy suburban/exurban municipalities doesn't want to merge with poor immigrant suburbs. Cities don't want to take over the ageing and costly country side surrounding them and so on. 
Not to mention that since large parts of Scandinavia are so scarcely populated merging two municipalities into one might mean that people who already might have over an hours drive to get to the municipal seat now will have over two hours. It's a delicate issue that savvy politicians would like someone else to get the heat for.

After all, the Swedish municipal reform in the 70's was one of the reasons for the Centre Party's (the strongest opponent of the reform) success in that era, and the Social Democrats fall from their 40-year unbroken power-hold.