Norwegian Parliamentary Election 2013

[Tender Branson]

Why has the Norwegian government become so unpopular in the past year ?

The economy is still doing well, as far as I know. Something important happened ? Scandals ?

[Tender Branson]

Hmm.

The government has only 35% and the opposition has 60-65%.

I still don't know why exactly.

Norway's economy is doing relatively well, so why the backlash ?

[Tender Branson]

Thx, that explains a lot.

[Tender Branson]

On the topic of the gypsies:

We have that "problem" here as well. Only with the difference that Norway could actually deport those people, while we cannot (most of them are Romanian/Bulgarian citizens, so the police needs to let them stay).

Can you even afford live in Norway with begging alone ? Where do they live ? Is it the same as here where they look for some run-down empty houses where they live in inhumane conditions, until they get chased away by infuriated locals or the police with arrest warrants if they are seen in these buildings again ?

[Tender Branson]

Yes, I assume Labours policy on begging is hurting them especially much in the cities, where they have already lost a lot of voters to the Conservatives. The Conservatives have played their hand well on the issue, which splits the liberal and conservative wing of the party. They are in favour of a ban, but they don’t make a great deal out of it (except for their local politicians in Oslo). In that way they prevent FrP (who are also in favour of a ban) from making it into a wedge issue.

It should also be mentioned that the current state of SV and SP is a huge problem for Labour. Even if Labour manages to repeat their results from 2009 (where they received somewhere around 35% of the vote), they will still lose if SV and SP are stuck at 4% each. If just one of their coalition partners drops below the 4% threshold, it is game over for the government.

It looks to me like it's game over already now.

Or has any incumbent Norway government ever made up a 25-30% deficit in just 3 months ?

[Tender Branson]

Question for the Norwegian posters:

How many parties are running exactly and where are they running ?

Or do all parties run Norway-wide ?

[Tender Branson]

Slightly off-topic, but it looks like there are now four Norwegian posters in this place,  all of whom have joined recently. Not bad - we should demand our own avatar.

Yes, indeed.

And it has been suggested for a while now, but Dave Leip has not included them so far:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=172422.0

[Tender Branson]

Historical turnout chart:



It was relatively high until ca. 1990, then started to drop. Same story like here.

[Tender Branson]

Looks like it ain't over yet !

New Gallup poll shows the government gaining ground:

http://politisk.tv2.no/spesial/partibarometeret/maalinger/10557

[Tender Branson]

With all due respect to the pollsters, this is not what the media is making it out to be. It's a single poll, taken at a time when a disproportionate amount of the country is still on vacation. Also, both V and KrF are under the threshold by less than half a percent: in other words, their falls are well within the margin of error. Even if the margin of error only went to Høyre, the amount of seats Høyre loses by dropping 0,7% is far lower than what V and KrF gain by going above 4,0%. Also, MdG is disproportionately large since they haven't actually had to answer questions about their policies yet.

It's a warning shot to the opposition parties, but by no means a turnaround unto itself. A very professionally conducted poll, however, and TV2 has explained to the viewers what the margin of error implies in this poll etc much better than they usually would.

(My sympathies lie with the Liberal Party and they are also the party I will likely cast my vote for at my local library in Bærum on September 9. Just so you know why I'm slightly partisan here)

Venstre seems to be ideologically similar to our NEOS party, according to their English brochure:

http://www.venstre.no/files/sentralt/valgmateriell/hovedbrosjyre_engelsk_web.pdf

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These are about the same slogans that NEOS has on the frontpage of their website.

[Tender Branson]

Stephen Harper Werner Faymann driving a taxi would be... awkward too.

[Tender Branson]

Who is the woman in the red dress ? A minister ? Or Stoltenberg's wife ?

[Tender Branson]

That really depends on whether or not they win the election next month. I can imagine Stoltenberg staying on as Prime Minister to 2017, but it is very unlikely that he will want to serve as the leader of Arbeiderpartiet in opposition. Since they will probably be out of office in a few months, they will need to think about a leader post-Stoltenberg. And it probably wont be Hadija Tajik, at least for eight-ten years.


Of the younger members of AP, can you think of other possible future contenders for the leadership? There is of course Anniken Huitfeldt, Annette Trettebergstuen and maybe even Eskild Pedersen.

I would have thought the same myself, that Stoltenberg would not stay on as leader of the opposition, but after reading some recent articles I think he may continue as leader. While the press always talk about him going for an international "top job", it's not like there are many of those available at the moment. If he were to go now though, I guess Støre would be the only possible replacement for Ap. If he were to decline, I have no idea who the favourite would be.

As for young leaders, it seems like Torgeir Micaelsen is a rising star, becoming head of the finance comittee at the age of 30. I think Huitfeldt is a bit too bland and not charismatic enough to become leader - then again, these type of things doesn't seem to matter as much here as in some other countries. And of course, Tajjik would probably be a very strong candidate, were she ever to run, as she has the perfect "profile": Young, female, immigrant, very ambitious and hard-working. And, just like Brundtland, her partner is a politician from Høyre, showing that she's skilled at bipartisanship.

Not an immigrant, but Norway-born ...

[Tender Branson]

Stephen Harper Werner Faymann driving a taxi would be... awkward too.

Yeah, this is a funny, albeit interesting publicity stunt.  Hollands is dull enough that I could see him being able to do it.  With Obama, his voice is so easily recognized that he wouldn't get very far.  And Kevin Rudd would be like Harper and Faymann: painfully awkward. 

Austrian TV news is running the Stoltenberg taxi story up and down these days ...

And because I watched some of it, I now know that Chancellor Faymann actually worked as a taxi driver for 1 year after his high-school exams ...

[Tender Branson]

Is there some kind of "election-meter" or "election-cabin", which is an online test with 20-40 questions to find out which Norwegian party fits you best ?

Preferably in English (or maybe you can post the link and translate the questions to English for us ?)

Thx

[Tender Branson]

LOL, look at the guy: At the moment the exit poll/result is announced, he starts to grope the girl's boobs ... Maybe she didn't even notice it, because of the joy.

[Tender Branson]

derstandard.at has a chart:



http://derstandard.at/1378248206824/Norwegen-Wechselstimmung-trotz-guter-Bilanz

[Tender Branson]

My prediction:

29% Ap (-6%)
26% H (+9%)
15% FrP (-8%)
  7% KrF (+1%)   
  6% V (+2%)
  5% Sp (-1%)
  5% SV (-1%)
  3% MdG (+3%)
  2% R (+1%)
  2% Others

Turnout: 78% (+2%)

Government: 39%
Opposition: 54%

BTW: Would MdG and R enter a coalition with the current left-wing government if they passed the 4% barrier, or would they remain out of a coalition ?

[Tender Branson]

My (more detailed) prediction:

28.6% Ap (-6.8%)
26.7% H (+9.5%)
16.1% FrP (-6.8%)
  6.5% KrF (+1.0%)   
  6.0% V (+2.1%)
  5.5% SV (-0.7%)
  5.1% Sp (-1.1%)
  2.8% MdG (+2.5%)
  1.4% R (+0.1%)
  1.3% Others (+0.2%)

Turnout: 77.6% (+1.2%)

39.2% Government
55.3% Opposition

[Tender Branson]

Persons eligible to vote by county and age:

http://www.ssb.no/en/valg/statistikker/stemmerettst/hvert-4-aar/2013-09-03?fane=tabell&sort=nummer&tabell=132883

[Tender Branson]

What's interesting too (from Statistics Norway):

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http://www.ssb.no/en/valg/statistikker/stemmerettst/hvert-4-aar/2013-09-03#content

[Tender Branson]

1. A new record of early voters has been set. This years number of 842,400 early voters - which make up almost 25% of the entire electorate, is a vast improvement from the past record sat in 2009, being about 180,000 votes higher than that one. This will make the early projections, to be released by NRK when the election halls close down at 9 o'clock CET tomorrow, even more reliable than ever before. New of the year is that NRK will no longer organize an election day poll, as analysis from the 2009 election showed that already then, with fewer early voters than this year, the early projections were in fact closer to the actual result than the various election day polls released by various media outlets.

Encouraging, but not necessarily meaning more turnout overall.

We had a state election in my state in May, where absentee ballot requests increased by 35% compared with the 2009 state election.

Yet overall turnout decreased from 74% to 71% in the election.

...

Still, I believe that this election will see slightly higher turnout than last time, because the Right seems to be energized for a possible government change.

[Tender Branson]

Hopefully, Stoltenberg's Labour Party manages a surprise and defeats the Conservatives by 5-10% today and that the government comes within 5-10% as well (a win would be shocking).

The Stoltenberg-government has not really earned such a big defeat, like the polls are predicting: Unemployment in Norway is 3.5%, the oil fund for future pensions is worth 500 Bio. $ right now and tripled under the Stoltenberg-government, the average Norwegian earns ca. 6000$ a month, the social safety net works well.

Hopefully, Norway voters take a second look today and forget that these "small first-world problems" that the Conservatives and other opposition parties are talking about, are in fact what they are - small and meaningless in a global perspective - and give the Stoltenberg government another chance.

[Tender Branson]

Hopefully, Stoltenberg's Labour Party manages a surprise and defeats the Conservatives by 5-10% today and that the government comes within 5-10% as well (a win would be shocking).

The Stoltenberg-government has not really earned such a big defeat, like the polls are predicting: Unemployment in Norway is 3.5%, the oil fund for future pensions is worth 500 Bio. $ right now and tripled under the Stoltenberg-government, the average Norwegian earns ca. 6000$ a month, the social safety net works well.

Hopefully, Norway voters take a second look today and forget that these "small first-world problems" that the Conservatives and other opposition parties are talking about, are in fact what they are - small and meaningless in a global perspective - and give the Stoltenberg government another chance.

They've been in power for what, 8 years? Government fatigue kicks in eventually.

Yes, but that is no legitimate reason IMO for a change of horses.

Just because a government is boring, but still manages the state well, you just simply vote for Conservatives ...

[Tender Branson]

Just because a government is boring, but still manages the state well, you just simply vote for Conservatives ...

If that was true shouldn't you vote for either SPÖ or ÖVP instead of the Greens, since they have also been objectively quite good in government if you look at employment and similar numbers?

Not really, because I have never been a SPÖVP voter before, always Greens.

But it seems in Norway, people are actually leaving the AP for the Right !

And besides, SPÖVP have their own corruption problems too and the employment/economic picture is not nearly as rosy as they try to portray (bank bailouts, 100.000 unemployed more since Faymann took over, Alpine bankrupcy etc.) ...

Maybe Norway has some important problems too regarding the current government that I as an outsider don't know ... (so, please tell me).