Norwegian Parliamentary Election 2013

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Another Norwegian here, my two cents:

1. Høyre becoming the largest party would be a near-revolution. I don't think it will happen this time, partly because of Høyre having to back down from some of their policies (they had to back down from their promise that abolishing the wealth tax would not mean that certain millionaires would end up paying no taxes), and partly because Ap have such a large mass of organizations, campaigners and voters to mobilize.

2. Miljøpartiet will be in big trouble once the other parties really get going. Many of their policies would require massive spending, and many of their politicians are inexperienced. They willl have a lot of trouble answering questions from the bigger parties.

3. I think SV and Sp will end up above the election threshold. This, however, will not be enough to save the Stoltenberg government. Nor will a single Rødt representative in Oslo.

4. Arbeiderpartiet losing the election being a pity? Not at all. They have acted arrogant, particularly after the July 22 attacks, and have spent the entire election campaign so far warning about how terrible Norwegian society will become should the right win.

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Question for the Norwegian posters:

How many parties are running exactly and where are they running ?

Or do all parties run Norway-wide ?

The forum is stubbornly refusing to allow me to post links, so I will instead write it down:

Arbeiderpartiet, De Kristne, Demokratene, Fremskrittspartiet, Høyre, Kristelig Folkeparti, Kystpartiet, Miljøpartiet, Piratpartiet, Rødt, Senterpartiet, Sosialistisk Venstreparti and Venstre are running in all counties/constituencies (Ap, Frp, H, KrF, Sp, SV and V are represented in Parliament today)

Det Liberale Folkepartiet (libertarians), Kristent Samlingsparti (fundamentalist Christians), Norges Kommunistiske Parti (communists), Pensjonistpartiet (senior citizens) and Samfunnspartiet (anarchists) are running in some constituencies, but not all.

Folkeliste mot Oljeboring (People's List Against Oil Drilling, Nordland), Folkemakten (People's Power, direct democracy party, Hordaland) and Sykehus til Alta (Hospital to Alta, Finnmark) are only running in a single constituency.

In total, 13 parties will be on the ballot in all constituencies and in total 21 parties will contest the election.

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Kystpartiet

They're still around?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

What does that mean?

Kystpartiet are still around, I forget if Steinar Bastesen is a member or if they expelled him for the third time.

Samfunnspartiet simply means Society Party. They've gained most of their reputation for putting random celebrities on their lists because, under Norwegian law, you cannot refuse a nomination to Parliament just because you don't want to...

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under Norwegian law, you cannot refuse a nomination to Parliament just because you don't want to...

lol, that's an ... interesting ... law.

Indeed. This is part of their list in my home county of Akershus:
2. Gunhild Anker Stordalen (wife of hotel mogul Petter Stordalen)
3. Tor Erling Staff (a literal devil's advocate, lawyer who often quite controversially defends sex offenders etc.)
5. Alex Rosén (comedian/musician)
9. Vendela Kirsebom (model)
10. Aylar Lie (glamour model)
12. Pia Haraldsen (journalist/satirist)
13. Katrine Moholt (singer)
14. Dorthe Skappel (TV hostess)
15. Ole Paus (musician)
16. Brynjar Meling (lawyer)
18. and 19. Johan Golden and Atle Antonsen (comedians)

...none of these people have actually declared themselves as candidates, but should one of them get elected (Whereupon a flight of pigs shall be cleared for takeoff at Oslo Airport), they will have to take a seat in Parliament. It's ridiculous.

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Same as in most western countries, really. I expext a small increase for the same reason as the climbs in 1997 and 2005: a chance for a change of government. Also Arbeiderpartiet will be pulling off a massive panic mobilization if things don't improve soon.

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With all due respect to the pollsters, this is not what the media is making it out to be. It's a single poll, taken at a time when a disproportionate amount of the country is still on vacation. Also, both V and KrF are under the threshold by less than half a percent: in other words, their falls are well within the margin of error. Even if the margin of error only went to Høyre, the amount of seats Høyre loses by dropping 0,7% is far lower than what V and KrF gain by going above 4,0%. Also, MdG is disproportionately large since they haven't actually had to answer questions about their policies yet.

It's a warning shot to the opposition parties, but by no means a turnaround unto itself. A very professionally conducted poll, however, and TV2 has explained to the viewers what the margin of error implies in this poll etc much better than they usually would.

(My sympathies lie with the Liberal Party and they are also the party I will likely cast my vote for at my local library in Bærum on September 9. Just so you know why I'm slightly partisan here)

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Former Prime Minister Thorbjørn Jagland says he feels Ap no longer wants to win the election, they're solely focused on being the largest party. I happen to be in agreement, for once. This is actually a somewhat counterproductive strategy, since Ap on 30% instead of 29% will gain fewer seats than SV on 4,5% instead of 3,5%

Meanwhile, a new poll for Nationen and Klassekampen puts SV under the 4% threshold and gives Høyre and FrP alone 89 seats.

Also, Høyre has proposed to increase patient contributions for minor operations. They apparently feel safe enough to throw out unpopular measures. They also want all patients to be able to choose between public and private healthcare. FrP were skeptical at first, but changed their mind when they realized it would mean that "handlingsregelen" (the rule that we can only use the interest from the state pension fund) is dead.

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That really depends on whether or not they win the election next month. I can imagine Stoltenberg staying on as Prime Minister to 2017, but it is very unlikely that he will want to serve as the leader of Arbeiderpartiet in opposition. Since they will probably be out of office in a few months, they will need to think about a leader post-Stoltenberg. And it probably wont be Hadija Tajik, at least for eight-ten years.


Of the younger members of AP, can you think of other possible future contenders for the leadership? There is of course Anniken Huitfeldt, Annette Trettebergstuen and maybe even Eskild Pedersen.

If Eskil Pedersen becomes leader Arbeiderpartiet will be polling in the teens in no time. If Jens should resign after the election, I predict a brief power struggle between Støre and Giske, with Giske managing to politically self-destruct because he's too far to the left.

Not an immigrant, but Norway-born ...

In Norway the situation is like this:
I am born to an American mother and Norwegian father. My mother is naturally an immigrant, but I am considered Norwegian.
A Pakistani, Turk or for that matter a Pole who has resided here for four generations, on the other hand...

So Tajik is still an "immigrant" in many people's eyes, as will be the case for any children she has.

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So far only really Venstre out in force with election posters. Trying to enter people's memories nice and early, I guess.



"We focus on education" with a picture of party leader Trine Skei Grande.

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For the past couple days, the election has partly been about the abundant rumors of SVs demise. A commentator in Bergens Tidende wrote about what he sees as a potential scenario: SV coming under the threshold and ending up with 0-1 seats in parliament. After that, there will be nothing left for the three wings of the party: the environmentalists leaving for MdG, the pragmatics making their way over to Ap, and the left-wingers gradually joining a more moderate Rødt. I find the scenario interestnig, but not entirely realistic.

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Walked by SVs election booth on Karl Johans gate (Oslos main street, Swedes may make as much fun as they wish of the fact that it's named after a Swedish king), told one of the party workers I hope they remained in Parliament but I wouldn't vote for them. He could only reply with a half-hearted "Well, then you'll have to contribute!". They're openly begging for tactical/sympathy votes...

Also had a nice conversation with the Pirate Party "Admiral" (leader). I initially asked him when their full electoral program would be published, because it's labelled as TBA on their website, he instead decided to fill me in on all of their direct democracy ideas. Turns out he can't answer a question either.

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VG has been running daily opinion polls lately and today it went nuts:

H 29%
Ap 28.6%
FrP 14.6%
V 7.3% (!!!!)
KrF 5.1%
Sp 4.9%
MdG 4.1%
SV 3.5%
Rødt 1.2%
Others 1.7%

Quite an unrealistic result for Venstre of course, but it could be the beginning of something.

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Høyre has always gone for minimalistic election posters, but this year they also appear to like the idea of subtle themes. The arrow points to the right (Høyre simply means "right") and the text reads "Better schools". This, of course, ignores the fact that there are actually quite a few people who can't tell the difference between left and right.



7-Eleven has actually been running a rather nice campaign. They have ads on the subway listing the alternatives to democracy, and these stands where they offer a free coffee while you decide what to vote for. This one is conviniently located next to an early voting station.



Last but not least, Litago, which is a brand of yoghurts and flavored milk, has been running a downright embarrassing parody campaign. This poster reads "Vote for the cow, get the violin back", which is a pun on a well-known childrens song.

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This, of course, ignores the fact that there are actually quite a few people who can't tell the difference between left and right.

*Insert obvious Stupid Norwegians joke here*

One would hope that as the poster is next to a road, the people driving cars on that road does know which side of the road they're on... and thus should know the difference.   

Actually, the first place I heard of this problem for anyone but small children was in...you guessed it, Sweden

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I might actually have to post a Facebook status: "Husk at polet er stengt til tirsdag!"

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They look very mature. If they were held in Italy there would be a huge victory of extremist-populis parties like 5star movement.

They used to be won by the fringe parties (SV and FrP). Youth have become more moderate in recent years, though.

At my old high school (Valler), Venstre recieved 35,7%. FrP and SV recieved around 7,5% together.

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1. Progress Party [far right, the 2011 terrorist was a member of this party]: -8.4%

Anders Behring Breivik was a member of FrP from 1999 to 2004, so he had ceased being a member a long time before the attacks on 22. of july 2013.

And I don't think "far right" is actually a fitting label for FrP. Just as SV can't really be described as "far left".

Yeah, it's kind of ridiculous to attach ABB to FrP. Other parties have less desirable elements in them as well.

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Just when we all thought the campaign couldn't get any dumber: Norwegian users, go to 1881.no and search for Jens Stoltenberg or Erna Solberg.

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I have a question about Norwegian politics...my understanding is that the Liberals or Venstre Party would ally themselves with the so-called bourgeois parties to form a right of centre coalition. There is no way for the right to government without including the ultra rightwing racist Progress party. How can the Liberal party which seems to be very socially liberal and environmentalist and pro-immigration and multiculturalism justify joining a government that would have to also include those kooks from the Progress party?
 

1. The Progress Party are not far-right nor explicitly racist.
2. Because they'll be getting some kind of power after this electino anyway and then it's better to try to limit their influence than trying to be in opposition against a party that has some support among other parties for almost all its policies.

I see a Canadian flag on your profile. The Progress Party is only slightly to the right of the Conservative Party over there, really.

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As for SV, Venstre and FrP, I can't immediately see any clear patterns, though maybe some of our other resident Norwegians could tell.

Venstres pattern is that those were all schools they sent parliamentary candidates to.

As for the centrist parties, they face a choice between co-operating with FrP or not having any influence at all, period. Guess which hill they choose to die on.

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eric82oslo, I find your hatred and descriptions of FrP completely irrational. FrP are considerably more moderate than they were in, say, 1989. Them entering government will likely be about as harmless as SV entering government was in 2005. Dansk Folkeparti is in my view to the right of FrP. And, lastly, there are educated people who vote for FrP as well (albeit not many).

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I notice that KrP & Venstre are making decent gains. Do they take votes mostly from Hoyre, or Frp?

Not actually sure. Both parties are appealing to the "want a new government but are really afraid of FrP" segment, which is probably going to be quite successful. I'd guess mostly Høyre, though KrF may appeal more to rural and working-class voters who would otherwise vote FrP.

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Today, FrP managed to make me angry for the first time in this election campaign. They are for the most part somewhat moderate these days, with the exception of some elephants in a china shop like Christian Tybring-Gjedde. But today they proposed that to be allowed to bring a foreign spouse into Norway, you should be required to earn 426 000 kr (Around $70 125) a year after taxes.

Now, I understand what they are trying to avoid. They are trying to avoid pro forma marriages that only exist to give the foreign spouse a free ticket into Norway. That could become a problem if it is not already and it needs to be stop. But to do this, Frp proposes to exclude almost every rank-and-file worker in the public sector from being allowed to marry a foreigner and still live in Norway. You're a nurse who met this really nice Canadian guy while you were studying in the US? Forget it.

What almost angers me more is that FrPs immigration spokesperson, Morten Ørsal Johansen, claims that nobody can make a living off of today's limit of 246 000 kr (around $40 500). What planet does this guy live on? Thousands of Norwegian families live off of smaller incomes than that. It almost reminds me of the Romney campaign classifying families earning $250000 as "middle class".

I think a period of responsibility will do FrP good. Voters will realize how far out some of their economic policies are, as well as being able to see that their wild promises on immigration and transportation will be impossible to carry out when placed in a position of responsibility.

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If I am not mistaken, the election is tomorrow. How about a bit of preliminary information such as

- Poll opening and closure
- When will the first projections be available? How precise are they typically?
- Around which time can we expect to have fairly stable results?
- Websites where live results will be reported
- Regions/ constituencies to look out for (bellweathers etc.)

Thanks in advance.

Polls open at 9 and close at 9 nationwide. Some polling stations are open today as well (Oslo and some other municipalities), and almost 850 000 people have voted in advance.

The exit poll at 9 o'clock is usually quite accurate on the amount of seats each side gets, though it varies somewhat between the parties (i.e. last time Venstre got 10 seats in the exit poll, lost 8 of them, but they were distributed among the rest of the right-wing parties)

Stable results...midnight-ish. However there is one factor that's important, and that is that we have no idea whether Oslo's vote counting system will work. And also, a high number of advance votes, as mentioned.

Any Norwegian news site (nrk.no, aftenposten.no, vg.no, tv2.no, dagbladet.no, etc) will have good results. I would try to follow NRK or TV2.

Bellwethers aren't all that common in Norway seeing as though we have a list system, however there are some traditionally "red" counties that may see a larger right-wing contingent than usual in this election: Telemark, Østfold, Buskerud, Nordland. Should any of these counties flip to a majority for the right, and also Oslo, we can be pretty sure of the winner. Many of the other counties (Akershus, the Agders, all of Western Norway except Sogn og Fjordane for the right; Northern Norway, the Trøndelags, Hedmark and Oppland for the left) will not be likely to change much.

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On the subject of bellwethers, today's Aftenposten has an article about Gjerdrum, which has come rather close to reflecting the national result. Unsurprisingly, it's a very middle-class suburb of Oslo with a strong rural element.

http://www.aftenposten.no/nyheter/iriks/Her-bor-valgprofetene-7304142.html#.Ui13gD-9LoY