Norwegian Parliamentary Election 2013

[HansOslo]

Kystpartiet

They're still around?

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What does that mean?

Indeed they are. Kystpartiet is actually sort of popular in certain parts of the hard right, because they are anti-immigration, as well as being anti-EU (which FrP isn’t).

[HansOslo]

Question for the Norwegian posters:

How many parties are running exactly and where are they running ?

Or do all parties run Norway-wide ?

I think Viewfromthenorth have covered this well. One thing that deserves a mention though is that KrF (the Christian Democrats) didn't use to run Norway-wide before 1945. Before the Second World War they usually just put up candidates in the Bible Belt region, which used to constituencies in the south, the southwest and the west. And that's still their strongest areas.

The south and the southwest of Norway have always stood out politically and culturally. The politics there were defined by the so called counter-culture movements, like language (nynorsk vs. bokmål/riksmål), evangelical Protestantism and prohibition of alcohol. Høyre and Arbeiderpartiet used to be a lot weaker in this region than in the rest of the country.

[Lurker]

Slightly off-topic, but it looks like there are now four Norwegian posters in this place,  all of whom have joined recently. Not bad - we should demand our own avatar.

[Tender Branson]

Slightly off-topic, but it looks like there are now four Norwegian posters in this place,  all of whom have joined recently. Not bad - we should demand our own avatar.

Yes, indeed.

And it has been suggested for a while now, but Dave Leip has not included them so far:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=172422.0

[minionofmidas]

Slightly off-topic, but it looks like there are now four Norwegian posters in this place,  all of whom have joined recently. Not bad - we should demand our own avatar.

You have two former colonial powers' avatars to choose from, so you're pretty well covered.

[Lurker]

Slightly off-topic, but it looks like there are now four Norwegian posters in this place,  all of whom have joined recently. Not bad - we should demand our own avatar.

You have two former colonial powers' avatars to choose from, so you're pretty well covered.

True. Three if we're counting Germany.

[Tender Branson]

Historical turnout chart:



It was relatively high until ca. 1990, then started to drop. Same story like here.

[Viewfromthenorth]

Same as in most western countries, really. I expext a small increase for the same reason as the climbs in 1997 and 2005: a chance for a change of government. Also Arbeiderpartiet will be pulling off a massive panic mobilization if things don't improve soon.

[Tender Branson]

Looks like it ain't over yet !

New Gallup poll shows the government gaining ground:

http://politisk.tv2.no/spesial/partibarometeret/maalinger/10557

[Viewfromthenorth]

With all due respect to the pollsters, this is not what the media is making it out to be. It's a single poll, taken at a time when a disproportionate amount of the country is still on vacation. Also, both V and KrF are under the threshold by less than half a percent: in other words, their falls are well within the margin of error. Even if the margin of error only went to Høyre, the amount of seats Høyre loses by dropping 0,7% is far lower than what V and KrF gain by going above 4,0%. Also, MdG is disproportionately large since they haven't actually had to answer questions about their policies yet.

It's a warning shot to the opposition parties, but by no means a turnaround unto itself. A very professionally conducted poll, however, and TV2 has explained to the viewers what the margin of error implies in this poll etc much better than they usually would.

(My sympathies lie with the Liberal Party and they are also the party I will likely cast my vote for at my local library in Bærum on September 9. Just so you know why I'm slightly partisan here)

[Tender Branson]

With all due respect to the pollsters, this is not what the media is making it out to be. It's a single poll, taken at a time when a disproportionate amount of the country is still on vacation. Also, both V and KrF are under the threshold by less than half a percent: in other words, their falls are well within the margin of error. Even if the margin of error only went to Høyre, the amount of seats Høyre loses by dropping 0,7% is far lower than what V and KrF gain by going above 4,0%. Also, MdG is disproportionately large since they haven't actually had to answer questions about their policies yet.

It's a warning shot to the opposition parties, but by no means a turnaround unto itself. A very professionally conducted poll, however, and TV2 has explained to the viewers what the margin of error implies in this poll etc much better than they usually would.

(My sympathies lie with the Liberal Party and they are also the party I will likely cast my vote for at my local library in Bærum on September 9. Just so you know why I'm slightly partisan here)

Venstre seems to be ideologically similar to our NEOS party, according to their English brochure:

http://www.venstre.no/files/sentralt/valgmateriell/hovedbrosjyre_engelsk_web.pdf

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These are about the same slogans that NEOS has on the frontpage of their website.

[HansOslo]

With all due respect to the pollsters, this is not what the media is making it out to be. It's a single poll, taken at a time when a disproportionate amount of the country is still on vacation. Also, both V and KrF are under the threshold by less than half a percent: in other words, their falls are well within the margin of error. Even if the margin of error only went to Høyre, the amount of seats Høyre loses by dropping 0,7% is far lower than what V and KrF gain by going above 4,0%. Also, MdG is disproportionately large since they haven't actually had to answer questions about their policies yet.

It's a warning shot to the opposition parties, but by no means a turnaround unto itself. A very professionally conducted poll, however, and TV2 has explained to the viewers what the margin of error implies in this poll etc much better than they usually would.

(My sympathies lie with the Liberal Party and they are also the party I will likely cast my vote for at my local library in Bærum on September 9. Just so you know why I'm slightly partisan here)

I agree with you about the poll. It seems unlikely that Venstre and KrF are both below the threshold, when most other polls have them somewhere between 5 and 6 %.

I have always wondered why Venstre isn’t doing any better. They have a platform well suited to appeal to the urban middle class. I think a lot of the problem is the party’s politicians, at least on the national level. Considering how Høyre have moved towards the center ground, there are issues (like spending and taxation) where Venstre could actually edge them out from the right.

[Lurker]

I agree with you about the poll. It seems unlikely that Venstre and KrF are both below the threshold, when most other polls have them somewhere between 5 and 6 %.

I have always wondered why Venstre isn’t doing any better. They have a platform well suited to appeal to the urban middle class. I think a lot of the problem is the party’s politicians, at least on the national level. Considering how Høyre have moved towards the center ground, there are issues (like spending and taxation) where Venstre could actually edge them out from the right.

As you say, the lack of well-known and popular leaders is a problem for them (I bet the majority of the population have no clue who Skei Grande is, for instance).

Another problem though is that they have no clear profile, no issues that clearly define them in the eyes of the voters, unlike all the other parties. Where KrF has moral conservativism/religious values, Sp has decentralization/Anti-EU, FrP has tough on immigration/crime, Høyre has lower taxes and so on. Venstre has IMO a lack of "identity", and this is could be a reason for their lack of success.

[FredLindq]

Another new poll gives another result.
Loo at this and you see them combined:
http://www.pollofpolls.no/?cmd=Stortinget&do=snitt&yw=201308

[FredLindq]

Yet another poll shows a significant lead for H+FRP+KRF+V.
http://www.pollofpolls.no/?cmd=Stortinget&do=snitt&yw=201308

Three polls now in August. The main difference since july is that V looses and SP gains. V is close to the barrier. MDG is gaining. H+FRP does not have a majority anymore.

H 55 FRP 29 = 84 (85 is needed)
KRF 9 V 7
AP 50 SP 10 SV 8 = 68
Rödt 1

CR 100
CL 69

[Lurker]

The new Norstat poll gives the best combined result for Høyre+Frp that I can ever remember to have seen. 50,6% and 90/169 seats.

The poll does seem a bit of an outlier though, as Frp share of the right-wing vote is much higher than in most polls, with Norstat giving them 20,9%.

With such a result, I think Frp would have pretty good bargaining cards against Høyre, and could probably demand one of the "big three" posts in the government.

[HansOslo]

The new Norstat poll gives the best combined result for Høyre+Frp that I can ever remember to have seen. 50,6% and 90/169 seats.

The poll does seem a bit of an outlier though, as Frp share of the right-wing vote is much higher than in most polls, with Norstat giving them 20,9%.

With such a result, I think Frp would have pretty good bargaining cards against Høyre, and could probably demand one of the "big three" posts in the government.

Yeah, that seems a bit high for FrP. Most of the other polls the last months have them at 14-15 %. They might gain some percentages during the election campaign, but I don’t think they will get 20 %. I wouldn’t be surprised if they demanded one of the big three either way. The ministry of finance is the most likely.

[Viewfromthenorth]

Former Prime Minister Thorbjørn Jagland says he feels Ap no longer wants to win the election, they're solely focused on being the largest party. I happen to be in agreement, for once. This is actually a somewhat counterproductive strategy, since Ap on 30% instead of 29% will gain fewer seats than SV on 4,5% instead of 3,5%

Meanwhile, a new poll for Nationen and Klassekampen puts SV under the 4% threshold and gives Høyre and FrP alone 89 seats.

Also, Høyre has proposed to increase patient contributions for minor operations. They apparently feel safe enough to throw out unpopular measures. They also want all patients to be able to choose between public and private healthcare. FrP were skeptical at first, but changed their mind when they realized it would mean that "handlingsregelen" (the rule that we can only use the interest from the state pension fund) is dead.

[You kip if you want to...]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-23655675

I think this is my favourite publicity stunt ever.

If I got into a taxi and found David Cameron driving I would never be this convivial.

[Hash]

Stephen Harper driving a taxi would be... awkward.

[Tender Branson]

Stephen Harper Werner Faymann driving a taxi would be... awkward too.

[Tender Branson]

Who is the woman in the red dress ? A minister ? Or Stoltenberg's wife ?

[Diouf]

It's Minister of Culture Hadia Tajik from Ap. The first Muslim minister in Norway, and the youngest ever as well. She's only 30 years old so probably a bit too young for Stoltenberg

The two others are the leaders of the other government parties. Audun Lysbakken from Sv and Liv Signe Navarsete from Sp

[HansOslo]

Indeed. There are people that want to see Hadia Tajik as the Labour party leader at some point in the future. Obviously she will not be Stoltenbergs successor (as she is a bit to young), but she might emerge as a candidate after Trond Giske or Jonas Gahr Støre. First she will need experience from a "heavier" post than Minister of Culture.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Audun Lysbakken from SV

OMG!



Really cute! Almost makes it a bit sad his party might end up out of parliament. [/shallowness]