Norwegian Parliamentary Election 2013
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #50 on: June 13, 2013, 05:20:15 AM »

It looks to me like it's game over already now.

Or has any incumbent Norway government ever made up a 25-30% deficit in just 3 months ?

Never say never in the world of politics.

Norwegians have a way of changing minds quickly when it comes to voting. And it's also important to note that governments that are unpopular mostly because people have grwon tired of them (which seems to be the major problem here) compared to actually being an out-right bad government tend to make very good recoveries in the election run-ups.

Just look at Denmark. Helle were suppouse to have a cake-walk, but it ended up being a rather narrow victory in the end. I fully expect the centre-right to win here, but it's not going to be this big of a victory.   
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Lurker
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« Reply #51 on: June 13, 2013, 05:29:14 AM »
« Edited: June 13, 2013, 05:36:00 AM by Lurker »

It looks to me like it's game over already now.
Or has any incumbent Norway government ever made up a 25-30% deficit in just 3 months ?

Yes, it is certainly game over by now, and has been for a long time. No government has ever made up such a deficit in less than three months, as far as I know. There is no chance whatsoever that the government regain their majority in parliament. Looking at Swedish Chef's example, it should be noted that the Centre-Left in Denmark only had a lead of 10% (at the most) three months before that election. So the Norwegian government needs a swing that is basically twice as big.

It is however still unclear what kind of government the country will have after the election. The most likely alternatives are (not ranked):

1. Høyre/FrP (Will probably happen if these two get a majority alone)
2. Høyre/KrF/Venstre (repeat of Bondevik II, though with Høyre in a much more dominant role. Could well happen if FrP has a poor result)
3. Høyre/FrP/KrF/Venstre (A strongish FrP, but without a majority for FrP+Høyre could see this happen)
4. Høyre alone

All other combinations are completely unlikely, as far as I can see.
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #52 on: June 13, 2013, 06:17:27 AM »

Will Venstre really sit in the same government as Frp?
Wouldn't a Höyre/Frp/KrF government be possible if those three have a majority together?
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Lurker
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« Reply #53 on: June 13, 2013, 06:34:10 AM »

Will Venstre really sit in the same government as Frp?
Wouldn't a Höyre/Frp/KrF government be possible if those three have a majority together?

Venstre are still very sceptical of ruling with FrP, particularly to to their massive differences regarding immigration and enviromental politics. But they have not ruled it out, unlike what they did in 2009.
I do think it is a possibility, but it would undoubtedly be tough for Venstre.

I think KrF would demand the inclusion of Venstre even if they are not needed for a parliamentary majority, in order to "balance" the right-wing lean of such a government (In 2001, Venstre was not needed for a parliamentary majority - they only had 2 MPs, just like today - but were still included in government).
Also, it would be in the strategic interest of Høyre to include Venstre as well, to prevent them from potentially co-operating with the Red-Gren "bloc", which could hurt the Centre-Right's chances in the next election.
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HansOslo
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« Reply #54 on: June 13, 2013, 07:34:13 AM »

I agree with Lurker. It is probably over for the government. I can’t see how they can catch up with the centre-right, barring some sort of black swan event, or the complete implosion of the relationship between the parties on the right.

 I wouldn’t rule out a government consisting of Høyre, KrF and FrP, but it is very unlikely. First of all because KrF wouldn’t be comfortable sitting alongside Høyre and FrP in government.  At the very least they would want Venstre in the government with them, as Lurker mentioned. As I’ve said in another thread, it would probably be easier for Høyre and FrP to work with Venstre in government, as the three parties agree on a lot of issues. The issues that define KrF as a party of the centre-right are mostly social questions like abortion, church and gay marriage, which are pretty irrelevant in the current political climate in Norway. On most other issues they could just as well work with Labour, the Centre party and SV (if SV shed some of the anticlerical rhetoric). 
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Gloucestrian
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« Reply #55 on: June 19, 2013, 11:33:06 AM »

So, what seems to be the likely narrative of this campaign from now until election day? Is it even  possible for the government to mobilize and close in on the opposition at this point, at least enough so to deny the Hoyre/FrP an overall majority? Or is this a done deal?
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Hifly
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« Reply #56 on: June 19, 2013, 11:48:01 AM »

Thankfully it looks like a done deal
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #57 on: June 19, 2013, 12:27:17 PM »

They've pulled off some impressive comeback efforts in recent elections, but seem to be too far behind for that to be realistic this time round. It's a shame, but they'll be back before long.
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #58 on: June 19, 2013, 05:34:11 PM »

It's a shame, but they'll be back before long.

Indeed, Norwegians love switching government. As opposed to Sweden who loves to reelect it's governments. (forever and ever) 
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HansOslo
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« Reply #59 on: June 20, 2013, 03:31:34 AM »
« Edited: June 20, 2013, 04:13:55 AM by HansOslo »

The most likely narrative for the campaign through the summer and early autumn will be for Høyre to say as little as possible about actual policy, as to avoid driving away the voters they have borrowed from FrP and AP.

AP will try to present Høyre and FrP as extremists that want to close down the public schools and the hospitals. The voters won’t believe them of course, since there is no basis in the claim whatsoever. FrP and Høyre support basically all the welfare programs that AP supports.

AP is also busy talking down the Norwegian economy, to scare people from voting for Høyre and FrP. That AP is the only party that can ensure stability, etc.

http://www.aftenposten.no/nyheter/iriks/politikk/Stoltenberg--Krisen-slar-inn-i-norsk-okonomi-7235251.html

I don't think Stoltenberg will get any traction on this though. People have too much confidence in Høyres ability to manage the economy.

FrP will try to win back some of their former voters, maybe over the issue of immigration and

gypsies. But they will not go too far, since they don’t want to scare away Høyre.

Sibboleth:
I think you are right. The left will probably be back in four years. I have absolutely no confidence in Erna Solbergs or Høyres ability to create a lasting coalition.
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ERvND
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« Reply #60 on: June 21, 2013, 05:51:59 PM »

Is there a (remote) chance Stoltenberg could hang on as head of some sort of "grand coalition"? Maybe if AP emerges as strongest party and the right-wing parties can't agree on a coalition deal?
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HansOslo
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« Reply #61 on: June 22, 2013, 06:43:54 AM »

Is there a (remote) chance Stoltenberg could hang on as head of some sort of "grand coalition"? Maybe if AP emerges as strongest party and the right-wing parties can't agree on a coalition deal?

That is extremely unlikely. I could imagine some sort of grand coalition in the event of a serious economic crisis. Let’s say that the oil price plummets and the oil service industry collapses, with unemployment reaching 10% or more. Then I could see AP, Høyre and maybe Venstre, KrF and SP forming a coalition. They might even allow Stoltenberg to be prime minister.

If the parties on the right can’t form a coalition, the most likely outcome is that Høyre will form a government on their own, with support from KrF, Venstre and FrP in parliament. That is actually very likely, if Høyre ends up with more than 25 to 30% of the vote.
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HansOslo
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« Reply #62 on: June 24, 2013, 09:15:57 AM »

There is an interesting debate going on, about what the parties of the left should do if they lose the election this fall.

This Saturday, the LO-leader Gerd Kristiansen told the newspaper Klassekampen that SP, SV and AP should build on the current red-green coalition, even if they lose the election.

Several important figures in SP have rejected this. This should come as a surprise to no one. SP have usually thrived in the role as a dealmaker (“hestehandler”), that can cooperate with both the left and the right, in return for concessions on issues relating to agricultural policy. It will be difficult to do this if they are too closely attached to SV and AP whilst in opposition. Another important factor is that SP doesn’t define itself as a party of the left, at least not the same way as AP and SV does.

I suspect that SV also would like to create some distance from AP. SV is at its lowest level of support since the 1980s, and they might not even make the four percent threshold next election. From a political perspective, there is little for them to gain by binding themselves to APs positions on energy, immigration, Europe and taxes for the next four years.


http://www.aftenposten.no/nyheter/iriks/politikk/Sentrale-Sp-politikere-apner-for-a-vrake-SV-og-Ap-7238623.html
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #63 on: June 30, 2013, 07:26:01 AM »

This is a fascinating election, and I'd be interested in knowing the electoral geography in Norway and other Nordic countries and the history behind it. Why do rural areas(which, in most other countries, including my own tend to vote conservatively) vote for left-wing parties by such overwhelming numbers, while underperforming in urban areas?

In Norway there are really huge regional differences. Mainly three areas tend to vote massively conservative; the southern & western regions (which are traditionally overwhelmed by Christian conservatives) as well as Greater Oslos (mostly the richer suburbs + the rich, western part of downtown/city of Oslo). Most of the rest of Norway, including all of the north, tend to lean more or less left. The rural east and the entire north vote massively for the Labour Party, as well as, to a lesser degree, Socialistic Left and the remains of the Farmers' Party (today called the Center Party).

It's interesting to see trends usually start in the capital though. While the Progress Party started to rise in numbers, during the 80ies and 90ies, their domain was mainly in Oslo. They had very little support in the rest of the country. However, for each consecutive election, this started to change more and more. Today it's actually the opposite way around; the party has massive support throughout the country, but Oslo is close to be their worst showing in the nation. Thus, to look for trends, one should primarily focus on the votes in the capital. It will probably tell us a whole lot of what the future holds. The most recent trend is probably that the environmentalists of the Environment Party The Greens (Miljøpartiet De Grønne) has started to gain a hold in a selected few cities, predominantly in Oslo & Trondheim. Soon we will know if this trend will continue even in this election. Their sister parties have already enjoyed huge success in several European countries including Sweden, Germany and France.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #64 on: June 30, 2013, 08:07:23 AM »
« Edited: June 30, 2013, 08:20:38 AM by eric82oslo »

It is however still unclear what kind of government the country will have after the election. The most likely alternatives are (not ranked):

1. Høyre/FrP (Will probably happen if these two get a majority alone)
2. Høyre/KrF/Venstre (repeat of Bondevik II, though with Høyre in a much more dominant role. Could well happen if FrP has a poor result)
3. Høyre/FrP/KrF/Venstre (A strongish FrP, but without a majority for FrP+Høyre could see this happen)
4. Høyre alone

All other combinations are completely unlikely, as far as I can see.

Probably. The only exception might be if Labour would do an amazing election campaign, and end up With 10%+ more votes than the Conservatives. Then I guess Jens might try to propose to the centre, With some kind of Ap/KrF/Sp coalition, possibly even include Venstre. I can see KrF accepting it, but Venstre would probably not be too happy, despite them being a socially very liberal party, unlike KrF.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #65 on: June 30, 2013, 08:12:50 AM »

So, what seems to be the likely narrative of this campaign from now until election day? Is it even  possible for the government to mobilize and close in on the opposition at this point, at least enough so to deny the Hoyre/FrP an overall majority? Or is this a done deal?

In the last few elections, Jens has been by far the best campaigner of the lot, so it should definitely not be impossible to close in on the lead. However the right has an ace in hand this time around which they didn't back in 2009, that they will appear much more united in the eyes of the electorate, which probably was what cost them the victory last time around.
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HansOslo
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« Reply #66 on: August 02, 2013, 09:55:18 AM »

There are just a few weeks left until the election, so I thought I should give the forum an update as to how everything is progressing so far.

The average from four different polling firms produces this average for July.

Høyre: 32,6 %
Arbeiderpartiet: 28,2 %
FrP: 14,2 %
Venstre: 5,6 %
KrF: 5,3 %
SP: 4,5 %
SV: 3, 8%
MdG: 2,6 %
Rødt: 1,8%

In other words, not much have changed since last month. The parties of the right are on their way towards a landslide victory.

The three most interesting developments these last months (as I see it) are as following.
 
1)   The rise of MdG. MdG stands for Miljøpartiet de Grønne. It is an environmentalist party. They gained a few seats in the last local election (2011), but they have never had a real presence in national politics. They might be able to get one of the seats in Stortinget (parliament) for Oslo.
2)   SV is doing really badly now. If this downward spiral continues they will not be able to break the 4%-threshold, and they will probably be reduced to a single seat (in Oslo). If this should occur, the Stoltenberg government will lose either way.
3)   It appears like KrF and Venstre appear to have stabilized above 4%. That is of course good news for them, and probably good news for the rest of the center right, as they might feel less of a need to distance themselves from Høyre and FrP. 
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Viewfromthenorth
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« Reply #67 on: August 04, 2013, 04:44:47 AM »

Another Norwegian here, my two cents:

1. Høyre becoming the largest party would be a near-revolution. I don't think it will happen this time, partly because of Høyre having to back down from some of their policies (they had to back down from their promise that abolishing the wealth tax would not mean that certain millionaires would end up paying no taxes), and partly because Ap have such a large mass of organizations, campaigners and voters to mobilize.

2. Miljøpartiet will be in big trouble once the other parties really get going. Many of their policies would require massive spending, and many of their politicians are inexperienced. They willl have a lot of trouble answering questions from the bigger parties.

3. I think SV and Sp will end up above the election threshold. This, however, will not be enough to save the Stoltenberg government. Nor will a single Rødt representative in Oslo.

4. Arbeiderpartiet losing the election being a pity? Not at all. They have acted arrogant, particularly after the July 22 attacks, and have spent the entire election campaign so far warning about how terrible Norwegian society will become should the right win.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #68 on: August 04, 2013, 04:49:54 AM »

Question for the Norwegian posters:

How many parties are running exactly and where are they running ?

Or do all parties run Norway-wide ?
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Viewfromthenorth
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« Reply #69 on: August 04, 2013, 05:08:38 AM »

Question for the Norwegian posters:

How many parties are running exactly and where are they running ?

Or do all parties run Norway-wide ?

The forum is stubbornly refusing to allow me to post links, so I will instead write it down:

Arbeiderpartiet, De Kristne, Demokratene, Fremskrittspartiet, Høyre, Kristelig Folkeparti, Kystpartiet, Miljøpartiet, Piratpartiet, Rødt, Senterpartiet, Sosialistisk Venstreparti and Venstre are running in all counties/constituencies (Ap, Frp, H, KrF, Sp, SV and V are represented in Parliament today)

Det Liberale Folkepartiet (libertarians), Kristent Samlingsparti (fundamentalist Christians), Norges Kommunistiske Parti (communists), Pensjonistpartiet (senior citizens) and Samfunnspartiet (anarchists) are running in some constituencies, but not all.

Folkeliste mot Oljeboring (People's List Against Oil Drilling, Nordland), Folkemakten (People's Power, direct democracy party, Hordaland) and Sykehus til Alta (Hospital to Alta, Finnmark) are only running in a single constituency.

In total, 13 parties will be on the ballot in all constituencies and in total 21 parties will contest the election.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #70 on: August 04, 2013, 05:12:22 AM »

They're still around?
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What does that mean?
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MaxQue
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« Reply #71 on: August 04, 2013, 05:13:53 AM »

Question for the Norwegian posters:

How many parties are running exactly and where are they running ?

Or do all parties run Norway-wide ?

The forum is stubbornly refusing to allow me to post links, so I will instead write it down:

You need 20 posts to post links.
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Viewfromthenorth
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« Reply #72 on: August 04, 2013, 05:14:46 AM »

They're still around?
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Kystpartiet are still around, I forget if Steinar Bastesen is a member or if they expelled him for the third time.

Samfunnspartiet simply means Society Party. They've gained most of their reputation for putting random celebrities on their lists because, under Norwegian law, you cannot refuse a nomination to Parliament just because you don't want to...
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #73 on: August 04, 2013, 05:15:58 AM »

under Norwegian law, you cannot refuse a nomination to Parliament just because you don't want to...
lol, that's an ... interesting ... law.
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Viewfromthenorth
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« Reply #74 on: August 04, 2013, 08:47:38 AM »

under Norwegian law, you cannot refuse a nomination to Parliament just because you don't want to...
lol, that's an ... interesting ... law.

Indeed. This is part of their list in my home county of Akershus:
2. Gunhild Anker Stordalen (wife of hotel mogul Petter Stordalen)
3. Tor Erling Staff (a literal devil's advocate, lawyer who often quite controversially defends sex offenders etc.)
5. Alex Rosén (comedian/musician)
9. Vendela Kirsebom (model)
10. Aylar Lie (glamour model)
12. Pia Haraldsen (journalist/satirist)
13. Katrine Moholt (singer)
14. Dorthe Skappel (TV hostess)
15. Ole Paus (musician)
16. Brynjar Meling (lawyer)
18. and 19. Johan Golden and Atle Antonsen (comedians)

...none of these people have actually declared themselves as candidates, but should one of them get elected (Whereupon a flight of pigs shall be cleared for takeoff at Oslo Airport), they will have to take a seat in Parliament. It's ridiculous.
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