Norwegian Parliamentary Election 2013

[Franknburger]

Is my understanding correct that handelsgymnasium (Oslo, 62.5% Hoyre) is similar to the German "Wirtschaftsgymnasium", i.e. having a special curriculum focusing on accounting and finance? And the "Oslo By Steinerskole" (31.1% MDG) is probably named after antroposopher  Rudolf Steiner, and following Waldorf pedagogy, right? The "kristne" in "Framnes kristne vidaregåande skule (56.8% CDP) is easy to understand even for a foreigner. So, no surprises here.

As to the other schools, somebody minding to explain some patterns...

[Lurker]

Is my understanding correct that handelsgymnasium (Oslo, 62.5% Hoyre) is similar to the German "Wirtschaftsgymnasium", i.e. having a special curriculum focusing on accounting and finance? And the "Oslo By Steinerskole" (31.1% MDG) is probably named after antroposopher  Rudolf Steiner, and following Waldorf pedagogy, right? The "kristne" in "Framnes kristne vidaregåande skule (56.8% CDP) is easy to understand even for a foreigner. So, no surprises here.

As to the other schools, somebody minding to explain some patterns...

Your understanding is correct. These elections really tend to confirm stereotypes .

As for other patterns:

Høyre's best schools are all private schools, with the exception of Oslo Handelsgymnasium.

Arbeiderpartiet's best schools are mostly in the Eastern parts of Oslo. Oslo has historically (and still is to a large degree) been split politically between a West side dominated by Høyre  and East side dominated by Labour. The West is obviously the wealthier area, and the East more working class (and these days, has a much larger number of immigrants).

Senterpartiet's best school seems to have some connection to agriculture. Their best results are all in rural areas, far from the larger cities.

KRF's best results are all in Christian schools, run by (conservative) Missionary organization. Those are the only places where youth will vote KRF in such massive numbers.

As for SV, Venstre and FrP, I can't immediately see any clear patterns, though maybe some of our other resident Norwegians could tell.

[DL]

The Conservative party in Canada is extremely rightwing by historical Canadian standards and for a country like Norway I would think that a party that is even slightly to the right of Canada's Conservatives would be almost "off the chart" and sort of Norwegian equivalent of France;s Front Nationale.

Why can't the Liberals form a front with other centrist parties like the Christian Democrats and the Centre party and announce they they will refuse to participate in any government that includes the Progress Party and insist that they not be allowed in the cabinet - and if Hoyre objects - the middle parties could always form some sort of "grand coalition" with the Labour party instead (sort of like how the SPD in Germany refuses to work with the Linke party or how both the SPO and OVP in Austria refuse to have anything to do with the Freedom Party.

I have a question about Norwegian politics...my understanding is that the Liberals or Venstre Party would ally themselves with the so-called bourgeois parties to form a right of centre coalition. There is no way for the right to government without including the ultra rightwing racist Progress party. How can the Liberal party which seems to be very socially liberal and environmentalist and pro-immigration and multiculturalism justify joining a government that would have to also include those kooks from the Progress party?
 

1. The Progress Party are not far-right nor explicitly racist.
2. Because they'll be getting some kind of power after this electino anyway and then it's better to try to limit their influence than trying to be in opposition against a party that has some support among other parties for almost all its policies.

I see a Canadian flag on your profile. The Progress Party is only slightly to the right of the Conservative Party over there, really.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Ah it wouldn't be a real Scandinavian election without DL coming on and complaining about the centre-right parties actions and political ideology. Makes me nostalgic for the good old Swedish election 2010 thread. Don't ya worry DL, next year around this time you'll be ranting about why people still vote for FP, and why Stockholm has turned so heavily to the right. I can't wait.

 

[Lurker]

Ah it wouldn't be a real Scandinavian election without DL coming on and complaining about the centre-right parties actions and political ideology. Makes me nostalgic for the good old Swedish election 2010 thread. Don't ya worry DL, next year around this time you'll be ranting about why people still vote for FP, and why Stockholm has turned so heavily to the right. I can't wait.

His view on Venstre cooperating with Frp is totally in line with Venstre's own view at the last election.
Though of course, they changed leaders since then. And I suppose four more years out of government has made them more accepting of making deals with Frp. Though their first choice is still a coalition with Krf and Høyre (which would be a minority government).

[Viewfromthenorth]

As for SV, Venstre and FrP, I can't immediately see any clear patterns, though maybe some of our other resident Norwegians could tell.

Venstres pattern is that those were all schools they sent parliamentary candidates to.

As for the centrist parties, they face a choice between co-operating with FrP or not having any influence at all, period. Guess which hill they choose to die on.

[DL]

Isn't the Progress Party in Norway the equivalent of the Sweden democrats in Sweden who are considered plutonium and taboo to have any dealings with...as far as I can tell the only real difference is that Progress got into parliament longer again Norway so I guess people have been lulled into accepting them as a civilized party.

Why can't the Liberals in Norway join a coalition with the Labour Party to keep the far right out of power, like the way the Radical Liberals in Denmark usually cooperate with the Social Democrats there to keep the Danish Progress party out of power? For that matter why not a "grand coalition of Labour, Hoyre and Ventre" that would let the opposition the two "bookends" of Progress and Socialist people's party? If the Norwegian Centre party can work with Labour, why not the Liberals?

[FredLindq]

The Norwegian FRP is in my opinion the least right-wing off the Scandinavian far right parties. FRP started as a tax protest/populist party in the seventies as the Danish FRP did. The danish FRP became the more nationalist and anti muslim. The swedish SD however grew out of the racist and extreme right BSS and Sverigepartiet. They call themseleves social conservatvie but many off the grassroots are still nationalist and there is a conflict there. The finnish PS is populist and somewhat nationalist but not that hardcore. Both PS and DF are memmbers off the Euroskpetic EFD but the Swedish SD is cooperting with the French FN and would join a far right group in EP.

From left to right
FRP (Norway) PS (Finland) DF (Denmark) SD (Sweden)

[Tender Branson]

derstandard.at has a chart:



http://derstandard.at/1378248206824/Norwegen-Wechselstimmung-trotz-guter-Bilanz

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

The Norwegian FRP is in my opinion the least right-wing off the Scandinavian far right parties. FRP started as a tax protest/populist party in the seventies as the Danish FRP did. The danish FRP became the more nationalist and anti muslim. The swedish SD however grew out of the racist and extreme right BSS and Sverigepartiet. They call themseleves social conservatvie but many off the grassroots are still nationalist and there is a conflict there. The finnish PS is populist and somewhat nationalist but not that hardcore. Both PS and DF are memmbers off the Euroskpetic EFD but the Swedish SD is cooperting with the French FN and would join a far right group in EP.

From left to right
FRP (Norway) PS (Finland) DF (Denmark) SD (Sweden)

Very well explained. Though I'd probably list DF to the right of SD, despite SD's more racist roots.

For that matter why not a "grand coalition of Labour, Hoyre and Ventre"

Because Scandinavia isn't Austria or Germany. Grand Coalitions only happens here if there's a World War. You know stuff like this DL, you've lived in Scandinavia for God's sake.

[Leftbehind]

Progress just seem like massive Thatcherites to me, more UKIP than Nazi-like SD.

[Diouf]

The Norwegian FRP is in my opinion the least right-wing off the Scandinavian far right parties. FRP started as a tax protest/populist party in the seventies as the Danish FRP did. The danish FRP became the more nationalist and anti muslim. The swedish SD however grew out of the racist and extreme right BSS and Sverigepartiet. They call themseleves social conservatvie but many off the grassroots are still nationalist and there is a conflict there. The finnish PS is populist and somewhat nationalist but not that hardcore. Both PS and DF are memmbers off the Euroskpetic EFD but the Swedish SD is cooperting with the French FN and would join a far right group in EP.

From left to right
FRP (Norway) PS (Finland) DF (Denmark) SD (Sweden)

Very well explained. Though I'd probably list DF to the right of SD, despite SD's more racist roots.

You could argue that way; it will be completely dependent on which criteria you choose. If you talk about general status with the other parties; i.e. if they are considered "toxic" for the other parties, then DF is probably the most left wing. If you look at the current state in the societies and what policies they are actually proposing, then you might be right in saying that DF is the most right-wing as Denmark has the tighest immigration rules of those countries currently. But then again, even the Danish Socialist People's Party would probably be regarded as racist and to the right of every non-SD Swedish party on immigration so I'm not sure how appropiate the latter method is.

[Tender Branson]

My prediction:

29% Ap (-6%)
26% H (+9%)
15% FrP (-8%)
  7% KrF (+1%)   
  6% V (+2%)
  5% Sp (-1%)
  5% SV (-1%)
  3% MdG (+3%)
  2% R (+1%)
  2% Others

Turnout: 78% (+2%)

Government: 39%
Opposition: 54%

BTW: Would MdG and R enter a coalition with the current left-wing government if they passed the 4% barrier, or would they remain out of a coalition ?

[Diouf]

My prediction:

29% Ap (-6%)
26% H (+9%)
15% FrP (-8%)
  7% KrF (+1%)   
  6% V (+2%)
  5% Sp (-1%)
  5% SV (-1%)
  3% MdG (+3%)
  2% R (+1%)
  2% Others

Turnout: 78% (+2%)

Government: 39%
Opposition: 54%

BTW: Would MdG and R enter a coalition with the current left-wing government if they passed the 4% barrier, or would they remain out of a coalition ?

R would support a left-wing government from the outside, quite similar to Enhedslisten in Denmark. However, Rødt seems quite more dogmatic than Enhedslisten, so it will be a less stable supporting party although a socialist party will always be quite reluctant to withdraw support completely.

MdG has said that they don't support any of the blocs, but that they will choose the side where they can get the most influence, especially on environmental policy. They have, however, said that they do not want to cooperate with FrP. Whether they would join a goverment or support it from the outside probably depends on the specific negotations after an election.

[FredLindq]

If we look att the Nordic nationalist and rightwing popolust parties and their economic policies we have to change the scale. The dansih DF is almaost socialdemocratic in their economic policies. The finnish PS is alsmot leftwing. The Swedish SD is centrist, som welfare policies but also decreasing taxes. The FRP is almost libertarian.

The economic scale
PS (Norway) - DF (Denmark) - SD (Sweden) - FRP (Norway)

[HansOslo]

Is my understanding correct that handelsgymnasium (Oslo, 62.5% Hoyre) is similar to the German "Wirtschaftsgymnasium", i.e. having a special curriculum focusing on accounting and finance? And the "Oslo By Steinerskole" (31.1% MDG) is probably named after antroposopher  Rudolf Steiner, and following Waldorf pedagogy, right? The "kristne" in "Framnes kristne vidaregåande skule (56.8% CDP) is easy to understand even for a foreigner. So, no surprises here.

As to the other schools, somebody minding to explain some patterns...

Your understanding is correct. These elections really tend to confirm stereotypes .

As for other patterns:

Høyre's best schools are all private schools, with the exception of Oslo Handelsgymnasium.

Arbeiderpartiet's best schools are mostly in the Eastern parts of Oslo. Oslo has historically (and still is to a large degree) been split politically between a West side dominated by Høyre  and East side dominated by Labour. The West is obviously the wealthier area, and the East more working class (and these days, has a much larger number of immigrants).

Senterpartiet's best school seems to have some connection to agriculture. Their best results are all in rural areas, far from the larger cities.

KRF's best results are all in Christian schools, run by (conservative) Missionary organization. Those are the only places where youth will vote KRF in such massive numbers.

As for SV, Venstre and FrP, I can't immediately see any clear patterns, though maybe some of our other resident Norwegians could tell.

SV is basically a middle class party, with a lot of voters with high education and cultural capital. To some extent it is also a very urban party. That also reflects on the young people who support SV. I went to Oslo Katedralskole, which used to be one of SVs best schools. In their heyday there, I think 35 – 40% voted SV, the rest went to Rødt and AP, with a few people (myself included) voted for parties on the right.

Venstre doesn’t really have a base region or core voter group anymore. That’s why I think their results are incredibly random. Their best results were at Valler, which is in Høyres suburban core region. Their next best result was in a small rural area with a few thousand inhabitants, Gloppen. I don’t think there is any pattern here at all.

I’m not sure about FrP. But it seems like their best results are in rural areas.

[Lurker]

SV is basically a middle class party, with a lot of voters with high education and cultural capital. To some extent it is also a very urban party. That also reflects on the young people who support SV. I went to Oslo Katedralskole, which used to be one of SVs best schools. In their heyday there, I think 35 – 40% voted SV, the rest went to Rødt and AP, with a few people (myself included) voted for parties on the right.

Venstre doesn’t really have a base region or core voter group anymore. That’s why I think their results are incredibly random. Their best results were at Valler, which is in Høyres suburban core region. Their next best result was in a small rural area with a few thousand inhabitants, Gloppen. I don’t think there is any pattern here at all.

I’m not sure about FrP. But it seems like their best results are in rural areas.

That is probably true of SV voters in general, yes. But some of their best results doesn't really fit that pattern: these include Vadsø and Inderøy.

It seems like things are really changing at Katta, I was surprised at how low SV polled there. http://www.samfunnsveven.no/skolevalg/resultat/skole/10060?aar=2005  As recently as 2005 SV+RV got 45% of the vote, and in '07 RV was even the largest party.

As for FrP's best schools, I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of them were focused on "yrkesfag".

[HansOslo]

SV is basically a middle class party, with a lot of voters with high education and cultural capital. To some extent it is also a very urban party. That also reflects on the young people who support SV. I went to Oslo Katedralskole, which used to be one of SVs best schools. In their heyday there, I think 35 – 40% voted SV, the rest went to Rødt and AP, with a few people (myself included) voted for parties on the right.

Venstre doesn’t really have a base region or core voter group anymore. That’s why I think their results are incredibly random. Their best results were at Valler, which is in Høyres suburban core region. Their next best result was in a small rural area with a few thousand inhabitants, Gloppen. I don’t think there is any pattern here at all.

I’m not sure about FrP. But it seems like their best results are in rural areas.

That is probably true of SV voters in general, yes. But some of their best results doesn't really fit that pattern: these include Vadsø and Inderøy.

It seems like things are really changing at Katta, I was surprised at how low SV polled there. http://www.samfunnsveven.no/skolevalg/resultat/skole/10060?aar=2005  As recently as 2005 SV+RV got 45% of the vote, and in '07 RV was even the largest party.

As for FrP's best schools, I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of them were focused on "yrkesfag".

Indeed, Vadsø and Inderøy don’t fit the pattern. It might be that there is a remnant of the radical rural tradition. Take NKP for example. Their strongest area in the 1940s and 1950s wasn’t the eastern parts of Oslo, where a lot of workers lived. I believe their best results were in places like Hedemark and in the North. SVs results these places might be explained in light of that.

I actually voted in the election you linked to. I think Høyre was represented by Nikolai Astrup in the debate. But of course it is extraordinary how Venstre and Høyre are actually doing better there now than SV.

You are probably right about FrP and “yrkesfag”. I think Hadsel videregående skole actually is such a place. That should probably be cause for concern for FrP. They are doing really badly in Oslo. Venstre actually beat them. They were barely able to eke out 14,5 % in Akershus. They probably have a solid base among working class people in some rural and suburban areas, but those areas are losing representatives.

[eric82oslo]

Isn't the Progress Party in Norway the equivalent of the Sweden democrats in Sweden who are considered plutonium and taboo to have any dealings with...as far as I can tell the only real difference is that Progress got into parliament longer again Norway so I guess people have been lulled into accepting them as a civilized party.

In my opinion Progress Party used to be far more right wing than Sweden Democrats were at their most extreme (and pre parliamentary-entrance, when they too were really racist like Progress Party used to be). However, post-22/7, Siv Jensen (leader) and most of her staff have not deared to utter really racist stuff in the immigration debate anymore as they used to do almost daily pre-22/7.

[eric82oslo]

The Norwegian FRP is in my opinion the least right-wing off the Scandinavian far right parties. FRP started as a tax protest/populist party in the seventies as the Danish FRP did. The danish FRP became the more nationalist and anti muslim. The swedish SD however grew out of the racist and extreme right BSS and Sverigepartiet. They call themseleves social conservatvie but many off the grassroots are still nationalist and there is a conflict there. The finnish PS is populist and somewhat nationalist but not that hardcore. Both PS and DF are memmbers off the Euroskpetic EFD but the Swedish SD is cooperting with the French FN and would join a far right group in EP.

From left to right
FRP (Norway) PS (Finland) DF (Denmark) SD (Sweden)

Very well explained. Though I'd probably list DF to the right of SD, despite SD's more racist roots.

And Frp used to be way, way to the right of Dansk Folkeparti during the 90ies and early 2000s, basically all the time while Carl. I Hagen remained as the Pia Kjaersgaard in devil. He was basically her guardian devil for a couple of decades. After Siv Jensen took over, the racist rhetoric started to decline, but it wasn't until the terrorist attack by their own political sympathiser that their rhetoric started to take a completely different form. It's okey for people to have short memories, I don't judge them for that. The Final Party Leader Debate tonight was extremely interesting. Extremely interesting because I've never ever ever seen Progress Party that defensive and out of the place before. Every single party from Red to the Conservatives kept attacking Progress Party for 2 hours straight, and Siv Jensen had absolutely nothing to say for her own defense.

[eric82oslo]

The Norwegian FRP is in my opinion the least right-wing off the Scandinavian far right parties. FRP started as a tax protest/populist party in the seventies as the Danish FRP did. The danish FRP became the more nationalist and anti muslim. The swedish SD however grew out of the racist and extreme right BSS and Sverigepartiet. They call themseleves social conservatvie but many off the grassroots are still nationalist and there is a conflict there. The finnish PS is populist and somewhat nationalist but not that hardcore. Both PS and DF are memmbers off the Euroskpetic EFD but the Swedish SD is cooperting with the French FN and would join a far right group in EP.

From left to right
FRP (Norway) PS (Finland) DF (Denmark) SD (Sweden)

Very well explained. Though I'd probably list DF to the right of SD, despite SD's more racist roots.

For that matter why not a "grand coalition of Labour, Hoyre and Ventre"

Because Scandinavia isn't Austria or Germany. Grand Coalitions only happens here if there's a World War. You know stuff like this DL, you've lived in Scandinavia for God's sake.

This is ridiculous. Of couse a grande coalition could be just as happening here as everywhere else. The only thing stopping it is that the Scandinavian Labour Party has been way, way, way stronger in Norway, Sweden and in parts in Denmark than in almost any other country in the world. That's what's stopping a centre-centre-government from forming. And only that. Don't keep telling your head ridiculous reasons okey?

[eric82oslo]

If we look att the Nordic nationalist and rightwing popolust parties and their economic policies we have to change the scale. The dansih DF is almaost socialdemocratic in their economic policies. The finnish PS is alsmot leftwing. The Swedish SD is centrist, som welfare policies but also decreasing taxes. The FRP is almost libertarian.

The economic scale
PS (Finland) - DF (Denmark) - SD (Sweden) - FRP (Norway)

I completely 100% agree with you that Frp is by far the most right wing nationalist party in the Nordic countries. It's hard to say which is the least nationalist/right wing, but it's certainly not Frp or Dansk Folkeparti. In other words it has to be either Sverigedemokratene or the Finnish party which I don't know a whole lot about unfortunately. The latter party that is. Sverigedemokratene is like a facial massage compared to how Frp used to be during the 90ies.

[eric82oslo]

I’m not sure about FrP. But it seems like their best results are in rural areas.

Frp is the new Senterpartiet, more or less. The ignorants vote for them, everyone else try to escape them as if they were the black death.

[Viewfromthenorth]

eric82oslo, I find your hatred and descriptions of FrP completely irrational. FrP are considerably more moderate than they were in, say, 1989. Them entering government will likely be about as harmless as SV entering government was in 2005. Dansk Folkeparti is in my view to the right of FrP. And, lastly, there are educated people who vote for FrP as well (albeit not many).

[Tender Branson]

My (more detailed) prediction:

28.6% Ap (-6.8%)
26.7% H (+9.5%)
16.1% FrP (-6.8%)
  6.5% KrF (+1.0%)   
  6.0% V (+2.1%)
  5.5% SV (-0.7%)
  5.1% Sp (-1.1%)
  2.8% MdG (+2.5%)
  1.4% R (+0.1%)
  1.3% Others (+0.2%)

Turnout: 77.6% (+1.2%)

39.2% Government
55.3% Opposition