Can some Canadian poster please explain to me....
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  Can some Canadian poster please explain to me....
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #25 on: September 22, 2013, 05:47:52 PM »

Presumably the parties would shift to the left somewhat if Canada actually got to vote in Presidential elections. Under those circumstances I assume Alberta would vote GOP and the rest of the provinces would go Democrat. The shift left would mean the GOP would presumably pick up states like Virginia, New Hampshire etc.
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Nichlemn
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« Reply #26 on: September 22, 2013, 09:58:17 PM »

Polls of Canadian presidential preferences have consistently shown a strong Democratic edge, even in Alberta. I kind of have a hard time picturing Alberta voting Democratic in practice though.

Calgary, Canada's "most conservative city" has a Muslim mayor.  A Republican would need to win Calgary to win Alberta, and I can't picture a Muslim getting elected in the US anywhere a Republican would win. 

What about in somewhere like Orange County?

A big factor would be why exactly Alberta is voting in US Presidential elections. If it was suddenly thrown into the US for no reason now, health care and a few other issues would probably make it Democratic. But there would have to be some reason. If it had become a US state in 1867, I'd imagine the lack of policy influence from the rest of Canada would have made it vote similarly to states with similar demographics and economies, making it GOP. If it were to become a US state in the near future, it'd probably be due to secession as a result of a left-wing federal government doing something like oil nationalisation, which would probably prime voters into voting for the more "pro-oil" American party.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #27 on: September 22, 2013, 10:01:29 PM »

One has to remember that Alberta is quite urban. 2/3 of the population live in either Calgary or Edmonton. I'm thinking the last provincial election would be a good indicator in how a Dem-GOP race would result in Alberta with PC areas voting Dem and WRP areas voting GOP.
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Njall
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« Reply #28 on: September 22, 2013, 10:12:16 PM »

One has to remember that Alberta is quite urban. 2/3 of the population live in either Calgary or Edmonton. I'm thinking the last provincial election would be a good indicator in how a Dem-GOP race would result in Alberta with PC areas voting Dem and WRP areas voting GOP.

That's how I've thought it would go too.  The rural south would be pretty decent GOP territory, but everywhere else would at least lean democratic.  Certain suburban parts of Calgary could conceivably go GOP as well, but overall I could see Calgary voting >60% democratic and Edmonton voting >75% democratic.
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adma
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« Reply #29 on: September 22, 2013, 11:57:19 PM »

Calgary, Canada's "most conservative city" has a Muslim mayor.  A Republican would need to win Calgary to win Alberta, and I can't picture a Muslim getting elected in the US anywhere a Republican would win. 

Re winning Calgary: not necessarily, esp. if the GOP gets huge compensating rural pluralities elsewhere in the province--or, for that matter, if a Jason Kenney had some multicult-friendly influence on GOP strategizing.

And the first Muslim in congress, Keith Ellison of Minnesota, was first elected in 2006--the same year that Tim Pawlenty was reelected governor, and two years before Norm Coleman was *nearly* reelected Senator.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #30 on: September 23, 2013, 12:00:05 AM »

I dont think Pawlenty or Coleman won Ellison's CD, so not a fair comparison. Minnesota is not dominated by the Twin cities in the same way Alberta is with Calgary and Edmonton.
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Sol
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« Reply #31 on: September 23, 2013, 09:06:41 AM »

BTW, I like Canadian politics because It's so weird- It flounts the 2-party pattern you see in most FPTP English speaking countries. I suppose it's because of the regionalism; Quebec obviously, but aren't the Prairies geographically quite disconnected from the east?
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lilTommy
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« Reply #32 on: September 23, 2013, 09:21:49 AM »

BTW, I like Canadian politics because It's so weird- It flounts the 2-party pattern you see in most FPTP English speaking countries. I suppose it's because of the regionalism; Quebec obviously, but aren't the Prairies geographically quite disconnected from the east?

To some degree; just like the Maritime provinces are geographically disconnected. To get to the prairies you (from here in southern Ontario) have to either go through the US (Michigan, and go around the southern part of the Great lakes, which I've been told can be quicker) or go north, and  go around the Lakes that way. It can take oh, 8-9hours to get around the lakes, even longer.
Northern Ontario is where you see a transition between Eastern CA and the West politically. The NDP has become, has been in the rural areas in particular the more dominant party vs the Conservatives federally and provincially (although the Liberals have a base of support in the northern cities and hold those provincial ridings)... Once you hit MAN, you see the stark two party system of NDPvs"right-wing party" that has emerged in MAN and SASK, SASK is much more pronounced though.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #33 on: September 23, 2013, 09:49:55 AM »

8-9 hrs?

Depends on your definition. To drive from Ottawa to Manitoba non stop would take at least 24 hours.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #34 on: September 23, 2013, 10:07:22 AM »

8-9 hrs?

Depends on your definition. To drive from Ottawa to Manitoba non stop would take at least 24 hours.
Really! i think it only takes about 8-9 to get around the lakes... i might be wrong, in fact it might take that long to get up to Lake Superior from here. I just google'd it. takes 15hrs to get from TO to Thunder Bay...
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #35 on: September 23, 2013, 02:47:16 PM »

I dont think Pawlenty or Coleman won Ellison's CD, so not a fair comparison. Minnesota is not dominated by the Twin cities in the same way Alberta is with Calgary and Edmonton.

Also, Minnesota is actually strongly liberal. The Republicans mentioned up thread only got elected with pluralities of like 40% because of a strong third party.
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toaster
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« Reply #36 on: September 29, 2013, 05:26:23 PM »
« Edited: September 29, 2013, 05:29:54 PM by toaster »

One has to remember that Alberta is quite urban. 2/3 of the population live in either Calgary or Edmonton. I'm thinking the last provincial election would be a good indicator in how a Dem-GOP race would result in Alberta with PC areas voting Dem and WRP areas voting GOP.

Many of those who vote for the Wildrose (including the leader herself) are socially progressive (in favour of gay marriage, pro choice, etc).  So, they may not vote GOP.  Trying to determine Albertan's American voting intentions is not as simple as trying to line up the parties.  The Wildrose party in itself is probably one of the most difficult parties to define in terms of the right/left spectrum (other than maybe the PQ).
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adma
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« Reply #37 on: September 29, 2013, 07:09:14 PM »

Many of those who vote for the Wildrose (including the leader herself) are socially progressive (in favour of gay marriage, pro choice, etc).  So, they may not vote GOP.  Trying to determine Albertan's American voting intentions is not as simple as trying to line up the parties.  The Wildrose party in itself is probably one of the most difficult parties to define in terms of the right/left spectrum (other than maybe the PQ).

Then again, that aspect of Wildrose has some commonality w/the Ron Paul wing of the GOP...
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