From one of my posts from December:
Sure D 123
Likely D 94
Likely R 23
Lean D 26
Tipping-point states 29
Lean R 75
Sure R 100
Depends upon nominee as a cultural fit 67The legitimate swing states in a near-even Presidential race are in pastel colors or white, and they have 156 electoral votes. For a d@mnyankee, cosmopolitan egghead the states in dark green might as well be in deep blue.
.....
New analysis (I love parallels):
R blowout R 415 D 123 D nominee wins
deep red and nothing else
R inverse of 2012 R 321 D 217 D nominee adds states in
medium redR win as in 2004 R 295 D 243 D nominee adds states in
pinkcontroversial R win R 275 D 263 or R 286 D 252 D nominee wins one state in
whitecontroversial D win D 272 R 266 D nominee adds both states in
whiteweak D win D 275 - 290 R 248 - 263 D nominee adds any state in
pale blue or
aqua other than Florida
D win like 2008 D 373 R 165 D nominee wins all states in any shade of red, the two in white, and all in
pale blue and
aquaD blowout D 417 R 121 R nominee wins no state that Republicans have not lost since at least 1976 (states only in
deep blue)
If it is more extreme, then the election will be a bore. Yes, I consider Illinois a marginal swing state in 2016.