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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results
  2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: Torie, ON Progressive)
  Kerry - Romney Counties
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Author Topic: Kerry - Romney Counties  (Read 4780 times)
mileslunn
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« on: November 24, 2012, 05:41:51 pm »

I know there were some particularly in the South, so anybody have a complete list.  I believe there were none in the Western half of the country while in Missouri it was only Ste. Genevieve County, there were a few in the Northeastern part of Arkansas, possibly one or two in Louisiana.  Not sure about Wisconsin as in the North you have a lot of really competitive ones that can go either way.  In Illinois there was Madison County, but thats all I can think of while in Michigan I believe Kerry won three counties in the Upper Peninsula as opposed to Obama's two.  There were the coal counties in Kentucky and a number of rural ones in Middle Tennessee, while in the Northeast I believe Beaver County, Westmoreland County, and Fayette County, all in SW Pennsylvania were the only ones.  Off course all the counties Kerry won in West Virginia as well as I think there were one or two in the extreme SW of Virginia that went for Kerry although those went for McCain in 2008.  In Florida, just Volusia County.  Anybody have a complete list.  If you take Gore to Romney there were obviously quite a few more.
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politicallefty
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« Reply #1 on: November 25, 2012, 02:36:13 am »

What's the explanation for Volusia? Obama carried that one easily four years ago.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #2 on: November 25, 2012, 07:21:47 pm »

What's the explanation for Volusia? Obama carried that one easily four years ago.

It was actually fairly close in the past few elections.  I think it is somewhat whiter than other counties as lets remember Kerry got over 40% of the white vote in Florida whereas Obama in 2012 did not.  The biggest difference is Bush won the Latino vote in 2004 in Florida whereas Obama won them by almost 20 points, so that might be the best explanation.  Also how close is it to the Space Coast as I know there was a lot of anger at Obama in that area.
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nclib
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« Reply #3 on: November 25, 2012, 07:51:03 pm »

All Kerry-McCain counties are Kerry-Romney counties. It would be more interesting to list Kerry-Obama-Romney counties.
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Benj
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« Reply #4 on: November 25, 2012, 07:56:16 pm »

What's the explanation for Volusia? Obama carried that one easily four years ago.

It was actually fairly close in the past few elections.  I think it is somewhat whiter than other counties as lets remember Kerry got over 40% of the white vote in Florida whereas Obama in 2012 did not.  The biggest difference is Bush won the Latino vote in 2004 in Florida whereas Obama won them by almost 20 points, so that might be the best explanation.  Also how close is it to the Space Coast as I know there was a lot of anger at Obama in that area.

I thought there might be anger, but Brevard County actually trended to Obama. I also doubt there are many people employed in NASA-related jobs in Volusia County. That said, the trend in Volusia was pretty small, enough to be just noise. In general, most of Florida moved against Obama, counterbalanced only by Obama's massive improvement in Dade County, presumably from doing far better with Cubans.

Generally speaking, Romney got the swings he needed to win Florida, except in Dade. On election night, as results came in, I was convinced Romney would win Florida until Dade County was so heavily reporting that it was clear there were no Romney-heavy parts of Hialeah that would tip it closer to the 2008 result.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #5 on: November 26, 2012, 12:06:24 pm »

What's the explanation for Volusia? Obama carried that one easily four years ago.

It was actually fairly close in the past few elections.  I think it is somewhat whiter than other counties as lets remember Kerry got over 40% of the white vote in Florida whereas Obama in 2012 did not.  The biggest difference is Bush won the Latino vote in 2004 in Florida whereas Obama won them by almost 20 points, so that might be the best explanation.  Also how close is it to the Space Coast as I know there was a lot of anger at Obama in that area.

I thought there might be anger, but Brevard County actually trended to Obama. I also doubt there are many people employed in NASA-related jobs in Volusia County. That said, the trend in Volusia was pretty small, enough to be just noise. In general, most of Florida moved against Obama, counterbalanced only by Obama's massive improvement in Dade County, presumably from doing far better with Cubans.

Generally speaking, Romney got the swings he needed to win Florida, except in Dade. On election night, as results came in, I was convinced Romney would win Florida until Dade County was so heavily reporting that it was clear there were no Romney-heavy parts of Hialeah that would tip it closer to the 2008 result.

Obama also performed rather exceptionally well in Orlando.  Kissimee going from a Bush 04 county to a 60% Obama 2012 county is pretty significant.  It's interesting that Flagler also swung more than expected, although it's a county Romney "should" have won with his national numbers.
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Snowstalker's Last Stand
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« Reply #6 on: November 26, 2012, 12:19:48 pm »

What happened in Gallatin, Illinois? It was fairly Democratic through 2008 (Obama won it 56-42, and it swung/trended Democratic), and then it votes 58-40 for Romney.
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« Reply #7 on: November 26, 2012, 01:21:11 pm »

What happened in Gallatin, Illinois? It was fairly Democratic through 2008 (Obama won it 56-42, and it swung/trended Democratic), and then it votes 58-40 for Romney.

It's near the centre of southern IL's coal basin, fwiw.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #8 on: November 26, 2012, 01:57:16 pm »

What's the explanation for Volusia? Obama carried that one easily four years ago.

It was actually fairly close in the past few elections.  I think it is somewhat whiter than other counties as lets remember Kerry got over 40% of the white vote in Florida whereas Obama in 2012 did not.  The biggest difference is Bush won the Latino vote in 2004 in Florida whereas Obama won them by almost 20 points, so that might be the best explanation.  Also how close is it to the Space Coast as I know there was a lot of anger at Obama in that area.

I thought there might be anger, but Brevard County actually trended to Obama. I also doubt there are many people employed in NASA-related jobs in Volusia County. That said, the trend in Volusia was pretty small, enough to be just noise. In general, most of Florida moved against Obama, counterbalanced only by Obama's massive improvement in Dade County, presumably from doing far better with Cubans.

Generally speaking, Romney got the swings he needed to win Florida, except in Dade. On election night, as results came in, I was convinced Romney would win Florida until Dade County was so heavily reporting that it was clear there were no Romney-heavy parts of Hialeah that would tip it closer to the 2008 result.

I was pretty sure that Hialeah hadnt reported yet when I saw the Obama percentage in Dade. 
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memphis
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« Reply #9 on: November 26, 2012, 02:16:23 pm »

All Kerry-McCain counties are Kerry-Romney counties. It would be more interesting to list Kerry-Obama-Romney counties.
I'm using the numbers posted here. I don't know if they've all been updated. Most are very close and could change if Atlas numbers aren't final. Anyhow:
Volusia, FL
Calhoun, IL
Madison, IL
Menifee, KY*
Rowan, KY
Wolfe, KY*
Arenac, MI
Big Stone, MN*
Ste Genevieve, MO
Belmont, OH
Jefferson, OH
Monroe, OH
Stark, OH
Houston, TN*
Jackson, TN*
Kenedy, TX
Boone, WV
Braxton, WV
Marion, WV
McDowell, WV
Webster, WV
Iron, WI
Pierce, WI
* denotes McGovern county
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mileslunn
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« Reply #10 on: November 26, 2012, 05:23:15 pm »

All Kerry-McCain counties are Kerry-Romney counties. It would be more interesting to list Kerry-Obama-Romney counties.
I'm using the numbers posted here. I don't know if they've all been updated. Most are very close and could change if Atlas numbers aren't final. Anyhow:
Volusia, FL
Calhoun, IL
Madison, IL
Menifee, KY*
Rowan, KY
Wolfe, KY*
Arenac, MI
Big Stone, MN*
Ste Genevieve, MO
Belmont, OH
Jefferson, OH
Monroe, OH
Stark, OH
Houston, TN*
Jackson, TN*
Kenedy, TX
Boone, WV
Braxton, WV
Marion, WV
McDowell, WV
Webster, WV
Iron, WI
Pierce, WI
* denotes McGovern county

Looks like about half of them were coal counties.  Also I know there are two in SW Virginia that went for Kerry in 2004 but flipped to McCain 2008.  Also in Pennsylvania, there was Beaver County, Westmoreland County, and Fayette County (also part of coal country) which Kerry won in 2004, but Romney in 2012 and I believe those went for both Mondale and McGovern as well.
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Snowstalker's Last Stand
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« Reply #11 on: November 26, 2012, 10:21:01 pm »

Kerry didn't win Westmoreland; no Democrat has won it since Clinton (who only won it narrowly in 1996).
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Benj
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« Reply #12 on: November 26, 2012, 11:44:48 pm »
« Edited: November 26, 2012, 11:49:07 pm by Benj »

What's the explanation for Volusia? Obama carried that one easily four years ago.

It was actually fairly close in the past few elections.  I think it is somewhat whiter than other counties as lets remember Kerry got over 40% of the white vote in Florida whereas Obama in 2012 did not.  The biggest difference is Bush won the Latino vote in 2004 in Florida whereas Obama won them by almost 20 points, so that might be the best explanation.  Also how close is it to the Space Coast as I know there was a lot of anger at Obama in that area.

I thought there might be anger, but Brevard County actually trended to Obama. I also doubt there are many people employed in NASA-related jobs in Volusia County. That said, the trend in Volusia was pretty small, enough to be just noise. In general, most of Florida moved against Obama, counterbalanced only by Obama's massive improvement in Dade County, presumably from doing far better with Cubans.

Generally speaking, Romney got the swings he needed to win Florida, except in Dade. On election night, as results came in, I was convinced Romney would win Florida until Dade County was so heavily reporting that it was clear there were no Romney-heavy parts of Hialeah that would tip it closer to the 2008 result.

Obama also performed rather exceptionally well in Orlando.  Kissimee going from a Bush 04 county to a 60% Obama 2012 county is pretty significant.  It's interesting that Flagler also swung more than expected, although it's a county Romney "should" have won with his national numbers.

Demographic shifts are the entire story there, especially in Osceola County. At the 2000 Census it was majority white; at the 2010 census it was plurality Hispanic with a big black population. (All of the massive population growth has been lower-middle class suburbs full of hospitality-industry minorities.) It would have been a bit of a surprise if it didn't swing further to Obama, to be honest (similar to, say, Rockdale County, GA).
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mileslunn
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« Reply #13 on: November 27, 2012, 01:04:17 am »

Kerry didn't win Westmoreland; no Democrat has won it since Clinton (who only won it narrowly in 1996).

My bad, I meant Washington County, PA which Kerry did win.  Your right about Westmoreland County though.
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Devils30
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« Reply #14 on: January 04, 2013, 01:51:56 am »

"All Kerry-McCain counties are Kerry-Romney counties. It would be more interesting to list Kerry-Obama-Romney counties."

False! I found a Kerry-McCain-Obama county: Benton, MS

I think this is the only one.

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nclib
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« Reply #15 on: January 04, 2013, 09:24:56 pm »

"All Kerry-McCain counties are Kerry-Romney counties. It would be more interesting to list Kerry-Obama-Romney counties."

False! I found a Kerry-McCain-Obama county: Benton, MS

I think this is the only one.



That may have been true at the time I made that comment (Nov. 25), at least according to this thread.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #16 on: January 14, 2013, 10:26:29 pm »

Don't forget Arenac, MI.  That was Gore-Kerry-Obama-Romney.
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Chaddyr23
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« Reply #17 on: January 15, 2013, 01:05:44 am »

Volusia County is chalk full of older white retirees that Romney ran up numbers with. First time voting Republican nationally since 1988! Totally underscored the shrinking of clout white voters had in the I-4 corridor and the state as a whole.
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Thomas_S_Richard106
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« Reply #18 on: January 20, 2013, 09:18:37 pm »

Kerry-Romney Counties:

2004 Washington County, PA: 50/49 Kerry
2012 Washington County, PA: 56/43 Romney

2004 Beaver County, PA: 51/48 Kerry
2012 Beaver County, PA: 52/47 Romney

2004 Fayette County, PA: 53/46 Kerry
2012 Fayette County, PA: 53/46 Romney

2004 Carter County, KY: 50/49 Kerry
2012 Carter County, KY: 58/41 Romney

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