British Elections 1885-1918 (user search)
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Author Topic: British Elections 1885-1918  (Read 18049 times)
DistingFlyer
Jr. Member
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Posts: 650
Canada


Political Matrix
E: 0.25, S: -1.74

« on: May 17, 2017, 11:04:21 AM »
« edited: May 17, 2017, 11:34:36 AM by DistingFlyer »

(Blows off dust)

Have just updated my big spreadsheet to include 1885-1910; besides some of the regional preferences that have already been discussed here, there are some other trends to be observed during this period that have some parallels with more recent times.

Let's compare 1892 with 1910 - a minority Liberal government (with about the same number of seats each time, in addition to 40 Labour MPs), but the Tories having 40 fewer seats in the latter election than the former.

Regional breakdowns between the two years are as follows (numbers are Lib-Cons-Lab):

Scotland - 50-20 in 1892, 58-9-2 in 1910
North - 84-68 in 1892, 86-44-22 in 1910
Midlands - 38-50 in 1892, 31-49-8 in 1910
London - 22-36 in 1892, 25-33-1 in 1910
Rest of South - 46-107 in 1892, 46-107-2 in 1910
South - 68-143 in 1892, 71-140-3 in 1910
Wales - 31-3 in 1892, 27-2-5 in 1910
Ireland - 0-21 in 1892, 1-19 in 1910

The Midlands, South, Wales & Ireland didn't change much from 1892 to 1910 if you look at the Tory vs Lib-Lab numbers. London sees some increase in Liberal-Labour strength, and some Tory weakening. The big differences are in Scotland (Conservatives down 11, Lib/Lab up 10) and the North of England (Conservatives down 24, Lib/Lab up 24).

One could take this same regional description, change the dates to post-war ones 20 or so years apart, and it would fit pretty well there too.


One other point, not quite related to this: given the large numbers of MPs elected by acclamation during this time - and the wide variation in acclamation rates between elections - national vote figures can't really be compared election-to-election like they can be now. For instance, if one looks at the national vote for 1900 vs 1906, it looks like only a 5.4% swing was recorded - large, but not what one would expect from such a huge electoral shift. However, if one compares the figures when only looking at seats that were contested in both elections, the picture is very different: Tories drop 11.6%, Liberals rise 6.6% and Labour rises 3.6%. Now, since there was a fair degree of cooperation between Liberal & Labour - usually just one party ran in a constituency - the two parties' rise should really be added together to give 10.2%. The swing figure of 10.9% that you get now (as well as the Tory drop of 11.6%) is just about double what was calculated using purely national figures, and is actually pretty close to the 1997 result (a 10.3% swing and 11.4% Tory drop) - just a little bigger, in fact - and does a much better job of explaining the huge Conservative defeat.

If one applies this same method to the different regions, this is what comes out:
Scotland - Tories down 11.7%, Lib/Lab up 9.4%
North - Tories down 13.1%, Lib/Lab up 11.2%
Midlands - Tories down 8.5%, Lib/Lab up 7.1%
London - Tories down 16.0, Lib/Lab up 13.8%
non-London South - Tories down 11.1%, Lib/Lab up 11.4%
Total South - Tories down 12.5%, Lib/Lab up 12.2%
Wales - Tories down 8.0%, Lib/Lab up 5.2%

Apart from the high Scottish & Northern swing and the low Midlands swing, these figures aren't too far off from 1997 either.

(Irish figures aren't really applicable here given the IPP's presence and the massive numbers of uncontested seats, but if you want them anyway they are Tories down 2.0%, Lib/Lab up 5.3%)
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DistingFlyer
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 650
Canada


Political Matrix
E: 0.25, S: -1.74

« Reply #1 on: May 18, 2017, 11:15:35 PM »
« Edited: May 18, 2017, 11:18:53 PM by DistingFlyer »

Using the above system, here are the regional figures for each election in this period (seats gained/lost are in parentheses after the vote change):

1886
Scotland: Cons +11.7% (+19), Lib +1.9% (-8)
North: Cons +2.8% (+19), Lib -1.4% (-18)
Midlands: Cons +7.5% (+40), Lib -6.3% (-39)
London: Cons +6.5% (+12), Lib -5.0% (-12)
Total South: Cons +8.8% (+61), Lib -8.2% (-59)
Wales: Cons +2.9% (+4), Lib -1.6% (-3)
Ireland: Cons +10.0% (+3), Lib -5.8% (-), IPP +2.0% (-1)
UK: Cons +6.9% (+147), Lib -4.2% (-128)

The Southwest swung the most - 11.8% - with the Liberals losing 23 of 33 MPs there. Birmingham also flipped heavily, being Chamberlain territory. Not a huge Northern swing, but lots of seats changing hands anyway.

1892
Scotland: Cons -0.6% (-7), Lib -0.8% (+7)
North: Cons -1.4% (-19), Lib +1.1% (+18)
Midlands: Cons -0.9% (-11), Lib +0.5% (+11)
London: Cons -5.7% (-12), Lib +4.0% (+11)
Total South: Cons -6.0% (-42), Lib +5.2% (+39)
Wales: Cons -3.2% (-5), Lib +3.2% (+5)
Ireland: Cons +4.1% (+4), Lib +5.9% (-), IPP -15.4% (-13)
UK: Cons -2.4% (-80), Lib +2.7% (+80)

Big swings in London & the South, with a lot of Midlands & Northern seats falling on a relatively small regional swing.

1895
Scotland: Cons +3.3% (+11), Lib -2.6% (-11)
North: Cons +2.7% (+28), Lib -4.5% (-27)
Midlands: Cons +3.4% (+14), Lib -3.6% (-14)
London: Cons +6.3% (+15), Lib -4.9% (-14)
Total South: Cons +3.9% (+40), Lib -3.4% (-37)
Wales: Cons +6.2% (+6), Lib -7.4% (-6)
Ireland: Cons +0.2% (-2), Lib -1.2% (+1), IPP -4.7% (-2)
UK: Cons +3.3% (+97), Lib -94 (-3.6%)

The Tories' best Welsh result during this period, with the biggest swing of the election.

1900
Scotland: Cons +1.8% (+5), Lib -1.6% (-5)
North: Cons +1.9% (+2), Lib -2.9% (-3)
Midlands: Cons -0.5% (-4), Lib -0.6% (+3)
London: Cons +3.1% (-), Lib -3.6% (-)
Total South: Cons +1.3% (-9), Lib -1.7% (+9)
Wales: Cons -5.1% (-3), Lib -0.2% (+2)
Ireland: Cons -2.0% (-), Lib +0.4% (-), IPP +8.1% (+7)
UK: Cons +1.0% (-9), Lib -1.5% (+6)

Most of the southern Tory losses came from the Southwest, in spite of a neutral swing there. This election is rather different from more recent years in that the strongest Tory swings were in Scotland, North and London! (The old small 'North' region - Cumberland, Durham & Northumberland - recorded a remarkable Tory swing of 5.7% and five gains).

1906
Scotland: Cons -11.7% (-26), Lib/Lab +9.4% (-26)
North: Cons -13.1% (-67), Lib/Lab +11.1% (+67)
Midlands: Cons -8.5% (-33), Lib/Lab +7.1% (+33)
London: Cons -16.0% (-32), Lib/Lab +13.8% (+32)
Total South: Cons -12.4% (-110), Lib/Lab +12.1% (+110)
Wales: Cons -8.0% (-6), Lib/Lab +5.0% (+5)
Ireland: Cons -3.9% (-4), Lib/Lab +7.7% (-), IPP -0.1% (+5)
UK: Cons -11.6% (-246), Lib/Lab +10.3% (+241)

Not much to add to the regional comments made in the earlier post, except to say that Birmingham still remained loyal to the Tories - that Chamberlain magic still at work, I suppose. I've combined the Liberal & Labour gains here (and will do so for the next two elections) in order to reflect their close electoral cooperation that was agreed in 1903 - while they weren't exactly in coalition (there were some three-cornered contests), they tended not to get in each other's way. Overall, an election that deserves comparison with 1945 and 1997, but doesn't seem to get mentioned nearly enough in their company.

1910
Scotland: Cons +1.6% (-1), Lib/Lab +0.2% (-)
North: Cons +3.1% (+13), Lib/Lab -2.6% (-13)
Midlands: Cons +4.9% (+22), Lib/Lab -4.5% (-22)
London: Cons +6.9% (+14), Lib/Lab -5.6% (-14)
Total South: Cons +7.9% (+76), Lib/Lab -7.3% (-76)
Wales: Cons +3.1% (+2), Lib/Lab -3.0% (-1)
Ireland: Cons +3.6% (+4), Lib/Lab +13.6% (-), IPP -1.6% (-11)
UK: Cons +5.1% (+116), Lib/Lab -4.1% (-112)

A popular swing back to the Tories of about half of what went against them in 1906 produces a similar change in seats, as they win back about half of what they lost. The Southeast is their best territory here, registering a 9.3% swing and 34 gains (versus a 14.9% swing against them and 39 losses in 1900). The North, Scotland & Wales shuffle back at a much slower pace - here we do see some parallels with more recent times.

1910, take two
Scotland: Cons +2.4% (-), Lib/Lab -1.4% (+1)
North: Cons +3.0% (+6), Lib/Lab -1.1% (-5)
Midlands: Cons -0.6% (+1), Lib/Lab +1.1% (-1)
London: Cons +0.3% (-3), Lib/Lab -0.6% (+3)
Total South: Cons -0.4% (-6), Lib/Lab +0.3% (+5)
Wales: Cons +1.0% (+1), Lib/Lab +0.4% (-1)
Ireland: Cons +0.1% (-2), Lib/Lab -0.5% (-), IPP +4.1% (+3)
UK: Cons +0.9% (-), Lib/Lab -0.3% (-1)

Here we can see the North playing a bit of catch-up, and the South falling back a bit, producing an overall swing (and seat change) that was relatively neutral. The best Southern area for Liberal gains was the counties that touched the Thames.
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DistingFlyer
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 650
Canada


Political Matrix
E: 0.25, S: -1.74

« Reply #2 on: June 07, 2017, 01:09:58 PM »
« Edited: June 07, 2017, 04:38:00 PM by DistingFlyer »

Here are some maps (not shaded, though I hope to have some of those coming) showing the elections from 1895 to 1910, hopefully illustrating some of the points made above.

A note on color - where a constituency returned two members of different parties, I've tried to use a mix of colors rather than splitting the seat up. Therefore, a constituency with a Liberal & Labour MP (the most frequent combination here) is colored orange; one with a Conservative & Liberal is a lavender color (as green might prove confusing).


Dec 1910 (Cons 272, Lib 271, IPP 74, Lab 42, AFIL 8, Others 3)


Jan-Feb 1910 (Lib 274, Cons 272, IPP 71, Lab 40, AFIL 8, Others 5)


Jan-Feb 1906 (Lib 397, Cons 156, IPP 81, Lab 29, HN 1, Others 5)


Oct 1900 (Cons 402, Lib 183, IPP 77, HN 4, Others 2)


Jul-Aug 1895 (Cons 411, Lib 177, INF 70, INL 12)

More to come.

As for shading, I'm still not entirely certain of the Irish constituency numbers - I've used Walker's book, but unfortunately he doesn't seem to have overall vote totals for each election so I'm not 100% sure I've copied them correctly - I've been over them a couple times to check, but one never knows. Does anybody have the Irish vote totals for this period (not Craig's)?
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DistingFlyer
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 650
Canada


Political Matrix
E: 0.25, S: -1.74

« Reply #3 on: June 07, 2017, 04:42:01 PM »

And here are 1885 through 1892:

Jul 1892 (314 Cons, 271 Lib, 72 INF, 9 INL, 4 Others)


Jul 1886 (394 Cons, 191 Lib, 85 IPP)


Nov-Dec 1885 (319 Lib, 247 Cons, 86 IPP, 18 Others)
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DistingFlyer
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 650
Canada


Political Matrix
E: 0.25, S: -1.74

« Reply #4 on: June 07, 2017, 06:48:19 PM »

Interesting that Liberals seem to have been the ones who were overrepresented in terms of land area back in these days.

Yes, the biggest single difference between then and now seems to be the urban/rural split - the Conservatives doing much better in the cities back then and less well in the rural areas. One consequence of the main anti-Tory party going from Liberal to Labour, I suppose.
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DistingFlyer
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 650
Canada


Political Matrix
E: 0.25, S: -1.74

« Reply #5 on: June 09, 2017, 08:47:41 PM »

During this time the number of seats that changed hands every election was quite high - even elections that featured strong swings still had a decent number of seats switching against the trend.

1886
Lib +24, -152 (-128)
Cons +161, -14 (+147)
IPP +1, -2 (-1)
Others -18
186 total changes (27.8%)

1892
Cons +21, -101 (-80)
Lib +99, -19 (+80)
INF -13
INL +9
Others +4
133 total changes (19.9%)

1895
Cons +114, -17 (+97)
Lib +18, -112 (-94)
INF +3, -5 (-2)
INL +5, -2 (+3)
Others -4
140 total changes (20.9%)

1900
Cons +32, -41 (-9)
Lib +38, -32 (+6)
IPP +13, -6 (+7)
HN +4, -12 (-8)
Lab +2
Other +2
91 total changes (13.6%)

1906
Cons +5, -251 (-246)
Lib +223, -9 (+214)
IPP +6, -1 (+5)
HN -3
Lab +28, -1 (+27)
Other +5, -2 (+3)
267 total changes (39.9%) - contrast this with 1997 where 27.9% changed hands on a similar swing

1910
Lib +12, -135 (-123)
Cons +130, -14 (+116)
IPP -11
Lab +17, -6 (+11)
AFIL +7
Other +5, -5 (-)
171 total changes (25.5%)

1910 again
Lib +23, -26 (-3)
Cons +28, -28 (-)
IPP +5, -2 (+3)
Lab +5, -3 (+2)
AFIL +2, -2 (-)
Other +1, -3 (-2)
64 total changes (9.6%)
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DistingFlyer
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 650
Canada


Political Matrix
E: 0.25, S: -1.74

« Reply #6 on: March 27, 2018, 02:50:26 AM »

Here are shaded maps (using my usual system, plus some new colors to indicate acclamations) for 1900, 1906 and January 1910.

1900 (Cons 402, Lib 183, IPP 77, HN 4, Others 2):


1906 (Lib 397, Cons 156, IPP 81, Lab 29, HN 1, Others 5):


1910 (Lib 274, Cons 272, IPP 71, Lab 40, AFIL 8, Others 5):
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DistingFlyer
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 650
Canada


Political Matrix
E: 0.25, S: -1.74

« Reply #7 on: March 27, 2018, 11:00:32 PM »
« Edited: March 27, 2018, 11:54:09 PM by DistingFlyer »

Here's a shaded map for December 1910 (Cons 272, Lib 271, IPP 74, Lab 42, AFIL 8, Others 3):



And here are shaded maps showing only the constituencies that changed hands.

Dec 1910 (Lib +23/-26, Cons +28/-28, IPP +5/-2, Lab +5/-3, AFIL +2/-2, Other +1/-3, Total 64):






Jan-Feb 1910 (Lib +12/-135, Cons +130/-14, IPP -11, Lab +17/-6, AFIL +7, Other +5/-5, Total 171):






Jan-Feb 1906 (Cons +5/-251, Lib +223/-9, IPP +6/-1, HN -3, Lab +28/-1, Other +5/-2, Total 267):





Note the large number of Tory seats that were won unopposed in 1900 but lost in 1906 (54 of 163 acclamations).


(For dual-member constituencies, I've left both halves colored even if only one seat changed hands.)
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DistingFlyer
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 650
Canada


Political Matrix
E: 0.25, S: -1.74

« Reply #8 on: March 30, 2018, 03:22:25 AM »
« Edited: March 30, 2018, 10:25:39 AM by DistingFlyer »

Here is a shaded map for 1895 (Cons 411, Lib 177, INF 70, INL 12):




And here are maps showing the seat changes at the 1900 election (Cons +32/-41, Lib +38/-32, IPP +13/-6, HN +4/-12, Lab +2, Other +2, Total 91):



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DistingFlyer
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 650
Canada


Political Matrix
E: 0.25, S: -1.74

« Reply #9 on: December 31, 2019, 10:32:46 PM »
« Edited: December 31, 2019, 11:44:18 PM by DistingFlyer »

(Blows dust off again)

Here are maps for 1900, 1906 & Jan 1910, indicating the winners' percentage of the vote. (Have also changed the Tory acclamation color from earlier.)

1900


1906


Jan 1910



Additionally, here are regional swings for 1886 through December 1910; these were calculated solely based on constituencies that were contested in both the 'before' and 'after' elections.

1886


1892


1895


1900


1906


Jan 1910


Dec 1910
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DistingFlyer
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 650
Canada


Political Matrix
E: 0.25, S: -1.74

« Reply #10 on: January 03, 2020, 03:44:33 PM »

Here's one for December 1910:
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DistingFlyer
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 650
Canada


Political Matrix
E: 0.25, S: -1.74

« Reply #11 on: January 04, 2020, 12:27:22 AM »

And here's 1895:
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