WV-Sen: Rockefeller Retiring

[CountryRoads]

YES!

[Mr.Phips]

North Dakota redux possible. Republican candidate supposedly unstoppable, loses in the ended to credible Democrat.

Capito is established and popular. Berg was neither.

And West Virginia is much more Democratic in local level than North Dakota.
And Berg didn't have to fight against the Club for Growth and Jim DeMint.

I wouldn't classify a U.S. Senate race as "local." It's going to be an election during the sixth year of Obama's Presidency. It will very much be a national race.

Historically, when the president's party gets creamed in year 2, they tend to break even in year 6.  In other words, I wouldn't count on a sixth year itch to carry the GOP in 2014.  2010 was probably Obama's sixth year itch.  Obama hasn't managed to sink local Dems in WV in 2008 or 2012 when he was actually on the ballot.  Capito was probably better off with Rockefeller than Generic D after Rockefeller's "I hate coal" speech.

Small sample size, though. Also, it doesn't really apply for the Senate, where staggered terms mean that there isn't the "regression to the mean" that applies to House races, and where the sixth year is the first election since the President was first elected.

Pretty big sample size actually.  No two term President has had two awful midterm elections going back to the 1800's. 

[Nichlemn]

North Dakota redux possible. Republican candidate supposedly unstoppable, loses in the ended to credible Democrat.

Capito is established and popular. Berg was neither.

And West Virginia is much more Democratic in local level than North Dakota.
And Berg didn't have to fight against the Club for Growth and Jim DeMint.

I wouldn't classify a U.S. Senate race as "local." It's going to be an election during the sixth year of Obama's Presidency. It will very much be a national race.

Historically, when the president's party gets creamed in year 2, they tend to break even in year 6.  In other words, I wouldn't count on a sixth year itch to carry the GOP in 2014.  2010 was probably Obama's sixth year itch.  Obama hasn't managed to sink local Dems in WV in 2008 or 2012 when he was actually on the ballot.  Capito was probably better off with Rockefeller than Generic D after Rockefeller's "I hate coal" speech.

Small sample size, though. Also, it doesn't really apply for the Senate, where staggered terms mean that there isn't the "regression to the mean" that applies to House races, and where the sixth year is the first election since the President was first elected.

Pretty big sample size actually.  No two term President has had two awful midterm elections going back to the 1800's. 

There haven't been many Presidents whose first midterm was awful, so given that it's already occurred to Obama we can't say much about whether a bad second midterm is less likely.

[memphis]

WV is an eternally quirky state. I never undertood how a Rockefeller could be so popular in a state like WV to begin win. He's always won overwhelmingly. I don't understand WV. At all. Still, way too early to handicap. Either party could win comfortably or lose epically with the right or wrong candidate. Obama's not going to be on the ballot in 2014.

[nolesfan2011]

Goodwin is the way to go.. for one he is a Manchinite (popular, even more so than Capito).  Rahall is barely holding onto his house seat..

with Goodwin (or the Gov Tomblin, though unlikely).. I say Dems hold the seat.

North Dakota redux possible. Republican candidate supposedly unstoppable, loses in the ended to credible Democrat.

Capito is established and popular. Berg was neither.

And West Virginia is much more Democratic in local level than North Dakota.
And Berg didn't have to fight against the Club for Growth and Jim DeMint.