WV-Sen: Rockefeller Retiring

[tmthforu94]

Advantage GOP - Capito isn't the only Republican who could win here, but she's the one we need.

[Lief 🗽]

R+1. This is why it was important for us to gain seats in 2012, to build a buffer against the inevitable losses this cycle.

[Drop Billionaires, Not Bombs]

Goodwin is our best chance here. Capito seems unbeatable but some insurance would be good. And if we lose, a pro-choice Republican from West Virginia isn't all that bad either.

It makes me wonder, though, how would Capito perform against a pro-life Democrat in West Virginia?

[retromike22]

Goodwin is our best chance here. Capito seems unbeatable but some insurance would be good. And if we lose, a pro-choice Republican from West Virginia isn't all that bad either.

It makes me wonder, though, how would Capito perform against a pro-life Democrat in West Virginia?

I'd like to see that race.

[Miles]

I know West Virginia's Republican bench is dismal, but are any names being thrown out (besides McKinley) as possible primary challengers to Moore-Capito?

As RougeBeaver first said, McKinley is considering running. He's part of the Republican Main Street partnership as well, which could be a liability on the right.

Rick Snuffer, who performed better than I expected against Rahall last year, might be more apt to run from the right.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

North Dakota redux possible. Republican candidate supposedly unstoppable, loses in the ended to credible Democrat.

Capito is established and popular. Berg was neither.

That didn't stop people from declaring the race Safe Republican. All I'm saying is don't count your chicken, especially after all the overestimation last year.

That's fine but I'm saying the dynamics on the GOP side in each race are totally different. It isn't exactly a sound comparison.

A better comparison would be with Wisconsin 2012.

Except Thompson was kind of yesterday news, Capito is not.

[Keystone Phil]

North Dakota redux possible. Republican candidate supposedly unstoppable, loses in the ended to credible Democrat.

Capito is established and popular. Berg was neither.

That didn't stop people from declaring the race Safe Republican. All I'm saying is don't count your chicken, especially after all the overestimation last year.

That's fine but I'm saying the dynamics on the GOP side in each race are totally different. It isn't exactly a sound comparison.

A better comparison would be with Wisconsin 2012.

Except Thompson was kind of yesterday news, Capito is not.

I said "better" not "perfect."    Plus, Capito, unlike Thompson, will win.

[MasterJedi]

Good news of the day. Advange GOP but of course anything can happen in 21 months.

[Maxwell]

Good news of the day. Advange GOP but of course anything can happen in 21 months.

I could definitely see the GOP snatching defeat from the jaws of victory once again.

[Mr.Phips]

North Dakota redux possible. Republican candidate supposedly unstoppable, loses in the ended to credible Democrat.

Capito is established and popular. Berg was neither.

And West Virginia is much more Democratic in local level than North Dakota.
And Berg didn't have to fight against the Club for Growth and Jim DeMint.

I wouldn't classify a U.S. Senate race as "local." It's going to be an election during the sixth year of Obama's Presidency. It will very much be a national race.

Historically, when the president's party gets creamed in year 2, they tend to break even in year 6.  In other words, I wouldn't count on a sixth year itch to carry the GOP in 2014.  2010 was probably Obama's sixth year itch. 

Yep, just like 1994 and 1998.  In almost every case of two term President's where there was a "six year itch", their first midterm was either mild or good(see 1954, 1962, 1970, and 2002). 

[HappyWarrior]

I still think Goodwin could have a great shot, even against Capito especially after a bruising primary fight.

[Talleyrand]

I remember seeing Senator Rockefeller on C-SPAN during the convening of the new Senate this year. He seemed to look rather tired and had to walk with the assistance of a cane, while many of his older colleagues seemed to be more vibrant and in good health. I think he genuinely wants to retire from the hard grind of Washington politics (especially in the Senate) and the Capito entry made it a lot easier for him to do so, since I don't think he would want to end his upstanding career with a humiliating defeat.

He has been a good Senator. It will be sad to see him go. I hope Capito turns out to be the moderate the CFG is portraying her as once she takes office in 2015.

[Lief 🗽]

SPOILER ALERT: She won't be.

[RogueBeaver]

He said in an exit interview with a local paper that he had a bad leg but was otherwise fine. In that Politico interview, also mentioned that he'd been pondering the question since October but only made up his mind very recently. I suspect that he started leaning no over the summer, hence the decision to make that coal speech. Capito's entry just sealed the deal- after all, she led him 2 years ago. Plus her father was the only one who ever defeated him, so no need for deja vu all over again.

[minionofmidas]

Just because Tea Party challenger Ted Cruz beat David Dewhurst didn't automatically lose him the general election.

It's not as if there were any non-joke candidates on the GE ballot.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Just because Tea Party challenger Ted Cruz beat David Dewhurst didn't automatically lose him the general election.

We're not discussing Texas here.

[politicallefty]

Just because Tea Party challenger Ted Cruz beat David Dewhurst didn't automatically lose him the general election.

We're not discussing Texas here.

Indeed. WV Democrats do far better in statewide races than TX Democrats. Though I don't think Capito can be beaten in a general election, this race could be broken wide open if she doesn't get through the primary. That's exactly why Democrats need some insurance in this race. It may be tough, but this one is not unwinnable.

[RogueBeaver]

Tomblin isn't interested. So either Tennant or Rahall it is.

http://atr.rollcall.com/west-virginia-democrats-begin-positioning-to-run-for-rockefellers-seat/

[Vosem]

Just because Tea Party challenger Ted Cruz beat David Dewhurst didn't automatically lose him the general election.

We're not discussing Texas here.

Indeed; we're discussing a state which voted even more heavily against Obama.

I understand you're trying to point at the state's more credible statelevel Democratic Party than Texas's, but 37% Obama betrays a state it would be difficult for the Tea Party to faze.

EDIT: Thank you for pointing out my mistake, Miles

[Miles]

Just because Tea Party challenger Ted Cruz beat David Dewhurst didn't automatically lose him the general election.

We're not discussing Texas here.

Indeed; we're discussing a state which voted even more heavily for Romney against Obama.

[Brittain33]

When was the last time WV elected a new Democrat to the Senate? For Texas, it's been several decades. I forget the answer for WV.

[Tokugawa Sexgod Ieyasu]

When was the last time WV elected a new Democrat to the Senate? For Texas, it's been several decades. I forget the answer for WV.

2010.

[Where's the Epstein Client List?]

Time for the Democrats to start funneling money to whichever Republican candidate is most likely to discuss rape.

[RodPresident]

In a good campaign, Tennant can win a la Heitkamp. Obama will still the President, but he isn't on ticket.

[Nichlemn]

North Dakota redux possible. Republican candidate supposedly unstoppable, loses in the ended to credible Democrat.

Capito is established and popular. Berg was neither.

And West Virginia is much more Democratic in local level than North Dakota.
And Berg didn't have to fight against the Club for Growth and Jim DeMint.

I wouldn't classify a U.S. Senate race as "local." It's going to be an election during the sixth year of Obama's Presidency. It will very much be a national race.

Historically, when the president's party gets creamed in year 2, they tend to break even in year 6.  In other words, I wouldn't count on a sixth year itch to carry the GOP in 2014.  2010 was probably Obama's sixth year itch.  Obama hasn't managed to sink local Dems in WV in 2008 or 2012 when he was actually on the ballot.  Capito was probably better off with Rockefeller than Generic D after Rockefeller's "I hate coal" speech.

Small sample size, though. Also, it doesn't really apply for the Senate, where staggered terms mean that there isn't the "regression to the mean" that applies to House races, and where the sixth year is the first election since the President was first elected.