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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results
  2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: Torie, ON Progressive)
  The Sandy Effect
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Question: do you think that Sandy may have increased Obama's margins in NJ and NY?
#1
yes
 
#2
no
 
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Total Voters: 28

Author Topic: The Sandy Effect  (Read 1192 times)
jman123
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« on: December 12, 2012, 05:18:43 pm »

This is something that I am intrigued about. Did Obama get more votes in NJ and NY due to his handling of Sandy or not?
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Trends are real, and I f**king hate it
Antonio V
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« Reply #1 on: December 12, 2012, 05:45:04 pm »

Of course it might have helped. I don't think NJ or Richmond county would have had a dem swing otherwise.

That said, despite Politico's rants, I highly doubt it had any meaningful impact outside of this area.
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Snowstalker's Last Stand
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« Reply #2 on: December 12, 2012, 06:20:54 pm »

Given that NJ and NY (two states which on paper would probably have trended R) swung and may end up having swung Obama, obviously.
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Clamdick McClaw
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« Reply #3 on: December 12, 2012, 06:23:47 pm »

Yes, there was an effect... unless you can give me another reason Ocean and Cape May counties on the Jersey shore would swing to Obama.  These towns are extremely wealthy, nearly 100% white, and the GOP could not have picked a better nominee for these areas.  
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nclib
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« Reply #4 on: December 12, 2012, 09:23:43 pm »

Sandy had some effect, though NY and NJ would probably still have trended D. I wonder if the LA and MS swings can be partially explained by Sandy reminding people about Katrina, and how Republicans botch natural disasters.
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Clamdick McClaw
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« Reply #5 on: December 12, 2012, 11:13:37 pm »

Sandy had some effect, though NY and NJ would probably still have trended D. I wonder if the LA and MS swings can be partially explained by Sandy reminding people about Katrina, and how Republicans botch natural disasters.

Trended is one thing.  For Obama to get SWINGS in the affluant white counties of NY and NJ when the country as a whole swung about 4 pts the other way, and the GOP candidate was Mitt Romney, shows that another factor was at play. 

Interesting point about MS and LA.  Louisiana shocked me, I thought for sure Obama was set to erode even more.  Mississippi is a little more understandable, as black voters made up a greater % of the voting populace. 
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True Federalist
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« Reply #6 on: December 12, 2012, 11:15:43 pm »

Rather than the swing being due to changed votes, I suspect it was more because more Romney voters than Obama voters chose to stay home rather than vote.  While Obama increased his margin in New Jersey, his absolute vote total was down.
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minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
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« Reply #7 on: December 13, 2012, 10:45:13 am »

Yeah, the real Sandy effect in Staten Island and on the Shore in Ocean County is homeless Republicans not bothering to vote.
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GMantis
Dessie Potter
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« Reply #8 on: December 13, 2012, 02:44:07 pm »

Wait, weren't the Republicans the ones who would swim through crocodile infested rivers to vote? Wink
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zorkpolitics
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« Reply #9 on: January 04, 2013, 10:03:08 pm »

Yes, Sandy swung NJ and NY voters to Obama, since both states went against the national trend
2012 Obama winning margin vs 2008:
Nationally decreased 3.43%
NY increased 1.28%
NJ increased 2.15%
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Smash255
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« Reply #10 on: January 04, 2013, 10:56:51 pm »

Yes, Sandy swung NJ and NY voters to Obama, since both states went against the national trend
2012 Obama winning margin vs 2008:
Nationally decreased 3.43%
NY increased 1.28%
NJ increased 2.15%

Both areas did swing to Obama, and Sandy might have had some impact, but not as much as you might think.

The swing was stronger in the core areas near NYC in Jersey than along the shore. 

In NY, while 4 of the 5 boroughs did swing to Obama (Manhattan being the only one that didn't), the strongest swings to Obama were in northern and portions of western NY.  Almost everything from Monroe County (Rochester), east to Albany and north to the Canadian border (with a few exceptions just north of Albany) swung Obama.
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