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  2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: Torie, ON Progressive)
  Income distribution of the white vote
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Author Topic: Income distribution of the white vote  (Read 5343 times)
Trends are real, and I f**king hate it
Antonio V
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« on: January 03, 2013, 03:14:23 pm »

I've looked for that in a few exit poll, but couldn't find data that crossed race and income data. I would be interested if someone had it, because I'm curious to see if the stark income stratification observed in the past elections is mostly explained by the vote of minorities (since they are overwhelmingly less affluent than whites on average) or if there was a real class factor even among whites.

For reference, here's the income data among the general electorate (I crossed the data from the NYT and CNN, which apparently used the same exit poll):

Under $30,000: O 63 / R 35 (20%)
$30,000-50,000: O 57 / R 42 (21%)
$50,000-100,000: O 46 / R 52 (31%)
Over $100,000: O 44 / R 54 (28%)
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Trends are real, and I f**king hate it
Antonio V
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« Reply #1 on: January 03, 2013, 09:39:08 pm »

Well?
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Sbane
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« Reply #2 on: January 04, 2013, 02:34:31 am »

I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of the drop off in the white vote for Obama from 2008 was among whites making more than 50k.
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memphis
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« Reply #3 on: January 04, 2013, 10:20:05 am »

I don't see any variarion in voting habits amongst whites by income. Education is a different story as old people have less formal education, can make about the same as a young with more education, and are more like to vote GOP.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #4 on: January 04, 2013, 10:28:41 am »

Long story short: Poor whites are to the left of rich whites.
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minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
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« Reply #5 on: January 04, 2013, 10:32:45 am »

The (comparatively) lilywhite states would be a good starting point. If the factor disappears there, then... but IIRC it doesn't.

But bear in mind that income and class are not identical. College students, unless their parents are really super duper hyper rich, tend to live in relative penury (and collect a lot of nontangible benefits from school and from home that aren't going to show up in an income question, making them appear poorer than they are.) And we know how they vote.
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Trends are real, and I f**king hate it
Antonio V
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« Reply #6 on: January 04, 2013, 01:09:55 pm »

The (comparatively) lilywhite states would be a good starting point. If the factor disappears there, then... but IIRC it doesn't.

But bear in mind that income and class are not identical. College students, unless their parents are really super duper hyper rich, tend to live in relative penury (and collect a lot of nontangible benefits from school and from home that aren't going to show up in an income question, making them appear poorer than they are.) And we know how they vote.

Of course, class in itself is almost impossible to identify in a society like America (which doesn't mean that it doesn't exist).

Another method could be to identify how the minority electorate breaks down in terms of income (ie which percentage is under 30k, which 30-50k, etc.), then infer a uniform vote regardless of income (a debatable premise, but probably not too far from reality) and make some math. I know that this kind of statistical tricks made on already dubious data can get pretty silly, but better than nothing.
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LastVoter
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« Reply #7 on: January 04, 2013, 04:36:41 pm »

http://www.gallup.com/poll/154883/professionals-pick-obama-execs-business-owners-romney.aspx
This probably the best survey for determining how different social classes vote in US. Unfortunately it's Gallup, so it's inaccurate to a certain degree.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #8 on: January 04, 2013, 04:44:12 pm »

http://www.gallup.com/poll/154883/professionals-pick-obama-execs-business-owners-romney.aspx
This probably the best survey for determining how different social classes vote in US. Unfortunately it's Gallup, so it's inaccurate to a certain degree.

That poll is B.S. Construction and manufacturing workers were handily for Obama.
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Trends are real, and I f**king hate it
Antonio V
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« Reply #9 on: January 04, 2013, 07:12:09 pm »

http://www.gallup.com/poll/154883/professionals-pick-obama-execs-business-owners-romney.aspx
This probably the best survey for determining how different social classes vote in US. Unfortunately it's Gallup, so it's inaccurate to a certain degree.

That poll is B.S. Construction and manufacturing workers were handily for Obama.

Cool story bro.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #10 on: January 04, 2013, 07:15:58 pm »


Uh, the unions were for Obama.

I have a hard time imagining a bunch of guys in hardhats voting for Romney, of all people.
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Trends are real, and I f**king hate it
Antonio V
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« Reply #11 on: January 04, 2013, 07:33:28 pm »


Uh, the unions were for Obama.

I have a hard time imagining a bunch of guys in hardhats voting for Romney, of all people.

I've got news for you: something can be both extremely sad and absolutely true.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #12 on: January 04, 2013, 09:16:55 pm »

The (comparatively) lilywhite states would be a good starting point. If the factor disappears there, then... but IIRC it doesn't.

But bear in mind that income and class are not identical. College students, unless their parents are really super duper hyper rich, tend to live in relative penury (and collect a lot of nontangible benefits from school and from home that aren't going to show up in an income question, making them appear poorer than they are.) And we know how they vote.

Of course, class in itself is almost impossible to identify in a society like America (which doesn't mean that it doesn't exist).

Another method could be to identify how the minority electorate breaks down in terms of income (ie which percentage is under 30k, which 30-50k, etc.), then infer a uniform vote regardless of income (a debatable premise, but probably not too far from reality) and make some math. I know that this kind of statistical tricks made on already dubious data can get pretty silly, but better than nothing.

You can probably do it with Black voters. The data I've seen indicates that Hispanic voters tend strongly to be affected by income though. I've seen plenty of data on this though so I'm sure it's available.
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« Reply #13 on: January 05, 2013, 02:49:32 pm »

They kind of broke down the 2008 exit polls by race/income:

Whites Under $50,000 (25%): McCain 51% / Obama 47%
Whites Over $50,000 (49%): McCain 56% / Obama 43%
Non-Whites Under $50,000 (13%): Obama 86% / McCain 13%
Non-Whites Over $50,000 (13%): Obama 75% / McCain 22%

Similarly:

White College Graduates (35%): McCain 51% / Obama 47%
Whites - No College (39%): McCain 58% / Obama 40%
Non-White College Grads (9%): Obama 75% / McCain 22%
Non-White - No College (16%): Obama 83% / McCain 16%

Latino Decisions' 2012 exit poll with Hispanics also broke down the Hispanic vote on the base of income:

Under 40k: Obama 84% / Romney 15%
40k-79k: Obama 77% / Romney 19%
80k+: Obama 62% / Romney 36%
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Trends are real, and I f**king hate it
Antonio V
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« Reply #14 on: January 05, 2013, 03:06:34 pm »

Whites Under $50,000 (25%): McCain 51% / Obama 47%
Whites Over $50,000 (49%): McCain 56% / Obama 43%

How can McCain win whites over 50k by 13 points if he won whites overall by 12? Huh Anyway, pretty depressing numbers.
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minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
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« Reply #15 on: January 06, 2013, 06:59:57 am »

Whites Under $50,000 (25%): McCain 51% / Obama 47%
Whites Over $50,000 (49%): McCain 56% / Obama 43%

How can McCain win whites over 50k by 13 points if he won whites overall by 12? Huh A
Presumably because in this poll he didn't. That'd be the logical explanation. That set of figures points to a win by 10, the other one (college) to a win by 11. Either way it's just statistical noise.

It's stunning how there's a clear-cut class angle to Non-White Republicanism but the White picture is so much more complicated. One really wonders whether there can be any No College but Over 50k White Democrats left... or any College but Under 50k White Republicans, either.
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PR
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« Reply #16 on: January 08, 2013, 01:14:45 pm »

This may be a good thread to bring in Andrew Gelman:

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http://andrewgelman.com/2012/11/richer-people-continue-to-vote-republican/



And this:


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http://andrewgelman.com/2012/03/voting-patterns-of-americas-whites-from-the-masses-to-the-elites/

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Trends are real, and I f**king hate it
Antonio V
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« Reply #17 on: January 08, 2013, 01:43:50 pm »

Very interesting stuff, thanks Progressive Realist. Smiley It seems the correlation between wealth and vote is slightly higher than it was in 2008 (which is understandable). The crossing of graduation and income data is also interesting (the "no HS degree" chart is pretty weird. The statistical significance of these subsamples might be pretty limited though...
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PR
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« Reply #18 on: January 08, 2013, 01:46:16 pm »

Very interesting stuff, thanks Progressive Realist. Smiley It seems the correlation between wealth and vote is slightly higher than it was in 2008 (which is understandable). The crossing of graduation and income data is also interesting (the "no HS degree" chart is pretty weird. The statistical significance of these subsamples might be pretty limited though...

Do you mean income? Income and wealth, of course, are not the same. Wink
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Trends are real, and I f**king hate it
Antonio V
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« Reply #19 on: January 08, 2013, 02:43:57 pm »

Very interesting stuff, thanks Progressive Realist. Smiley It seems the correlation between wealth and vote is slightly higher than it was in 2008 (which is understandable). The crossing of graduation and income data is also interesting (the "no HS degree" chart is pretty weird. The statistical significance of these subsamples might be pretty limited though...

Do you mean income? Income and wealth, of course, are not the same. Wink

Yeah, sorry. I don't know which of the two measures is the best to identify class, but I'd guess income is slightly better.
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Snowstalker's Last Stand
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« Reply #20 on: January 08, 2013, 04:50:49 pm »

Whites who graduated only high school swung Republican in 2008, and seemingly significantly? Not entirely sure how accurate that is.
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PR
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« Reply #21 on: January 08, 2013, 05:55:51 pm »

Whites who graduated only high school swung Republican in 2008, and seemingly significantly? Not entirely sure how accurate that is.

Why? Doesn't that fit the description of a lot of people in, say, Appalachia and much of the South?
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Snowstalker's Last Stand
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« Reply #22 on: January 08, 2013, 06:02:33 pm »

It does, but Appalachia (especially the actual mountains) are more sparsely populated than anything else east of the Mississippi. I'd have assumed a light D swing in that year.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #23 on: January 26, 2013, 10:24:38 pm »

Considering whites in the South tend to be poorer than elsewhere and vote quite heavily Republican, I suspect the variance amongst whites was rather small.  Lets remember places like Manhattan and San Francisco have lots of rich whites and I am pretty sure Obama won those.  The real reason lower income people were more likely to go for Obama is the percentage amongst this group who are African-American or Latino is well above the national average.  I wouldn't be surprised if more than 50% of lower income households were minorities.  Its also the same with age as although the age divide exists with whites, its not nearly as large as exit polls suggest since the 18-29 demographic is much less white than the 65+ demographic.
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Sbane
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« Reply #24 on: January 27, 2013, 08:40:57 pm »

In 2008, the exit polls broke down whites by income and those making less than 50k did vote more Democratic than those making more. Of course a lot of lower income people are younger, so if you control for age I wonder how much of a difference there would be. Of course a large contributor to the heavily Democratic under 50k vote is the Latino and AA vote, no doubt about that.
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