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Author Topic: The Big Bad Swedish Politics & News Thread  (Read 137264 times)
Diouf
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« on: January 08, 2013, 08:16:20 AM »

I guess the Gothenburg riots might have helped the SD even further. I can see that they are on 10 % in the latest poll from SIFO, making them the third-biggest party just infront of the Green party
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Diouf
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« Reply #1 on: January 08, 2013, 08:31:05 AM »



I guess the Gothenburg riots might have helped the SD even further. I can see that they are on 10 % in the latest poll from SIFO, making them the third-biggest party just infront of the Green party

Gothenburg riots? Huh Those happened twelve years ago. I don't really think they have an impact today. ^^

Maybe disturbances would be a better wording, but I'm refering to what happened at and outside the high schools in Gothenburg in December,
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Diouf
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« Reply #2 on: January 08, 2013, 08:39:24 AM »


I guess the Gothenburg riots might have helped the SD even further. I can see that they are on 10 % in the latest poll from SIFO, making them the third-biggest party just infront of the Green party

Gothenburg riots? Huh Those happened twelve years ago. I don't really think they have an impact today. ^^

EDIT: Oh wait, now I realise what you mean. You mean the instagram incident. Doubt that has anything to do with the polls. Unless the Sweden Democrats are also anti-teenagers.

I don't think they are anti-teenagers, but they are anti-immigrant, so as it was predominantly immigrant teenagers I imagine that has helped them further.
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Diouf
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« Reply #3 on: January 08, 2013, 09:26:55 AM »

I don't think they are anti-teenagers, but they are anti-immigrant, so as it was predominantly immigrant teenagers I imagine that has helped them further.

I don't think they were predominantly immigrant. I haven't so read anywhere and the pictures I've seen doesn't show the kids to have more immigrants than usual. But I don't know for sure. Do you have a source? 

Hehe, I certainly wasn't expecting the Swedish newspapers to write so. I haven't noticed if any newspapers published pictures of the arrested so nothing is certain, but, the sources i've seen believes that it was the case as the instagram profile was called orroz, which is apparently Persian or Turkish for slut, and that most of the comments were from other immigrants. Also due to footage like this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=Z16Y5u1YBH8 and http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PmV408vE3FM
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Diouf
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« Reply #4 on: January 08, 2013, 10:29:48 AM »

I don't think they are anti-teenagers, but they are anti-immigrant, so as it was predominantly immigrant teenagers I imagine that has helped them further.

I don't think they were predominantly immigrant. I haven't so read anywhere and the pictures I've seen doesn't show the kids to have more immigrants than usual. But I don't know for sure. Do you have a source? 

Hehe, I certainly wasn't expecting the Swedish newspapers to write so.

Well obviously.
Still if you read between the lines you can usually tell when they are and when they're not. Anyway you might be right. Though I still don't think it has influenced the polls. The SIFO poll was from early December, mostly taken in late November. (That's why C is still above 4% in that poll as well. They announced their new platform the same day as the Gothenburg thing.)

Ahh, sorry.  It certainly didn't affect those numbers then. Just looked at it at Wikipedia's site of opinion polling when it said December 2012, and took for granted that it was end-December as the reference wasn't working.

Is it likely that one of the party from either sides will turn into a support party for the other side, or will both sides generally prefer to rule with an uncertain majority instead?
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Diouf
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« Reply #5 on: December 02, 2014, 11:42:33 AM »

Democratically I think it's great that this means that the government can't pass a budget just with a plurality because the opposition parties disagree with them in different ways. Especially in an important area like the budget I think there should be a simple majority for it to be passed.

I guess the government will now try to lure one of the Alliance party away from the block, but that might be difficult. Which party would generally be closest to the government economically? KD?
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Diouf
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« Reply #6 on: July 24, 2015, 10:23:17 AM »

New Sentio poll for Nyheter i dag

Social Democrats 24.1%
Sweden Democrats 23.3%
Moderates 20.8%
Centre Party 6.7%
Greens 6.4%
Left Party 6.4%
Liberals 4.4%
Christian Democrats 3.1%

The highest the Sweden Democrats have ever polled, and the first time they are among the top two parties.
Left wing parties have 36.9% while the Alliance parties have 35%, including the Christian Democrats which are below the treshold.
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Diouf
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« Reply #7 on: August 12, 2015, 02:26:44 PM »
« Edited: August 12, 2015, 03:13:02 PM by Diouf »

In the whole discussion about whether or not to cooperate with the SD, one should also remember the simple reality of majority building. Even if the leaders of the Moderates wanted to try to build a majority with the SD, which would probably be supported by a majority of their voters, then those two parties would still not have a majority. Annie "Unlimited Immigration" Lööf and the Centre Party would certainly not participate in such a majority, and the Liberals would be very likely to reject it as well. There have been some slight rumblings in the Christian Democrats about reducing the numbers of refugees and immigrants, so perhaps they could accept joining the Moderates in a coalition backed by the SD; but the Christian Democrats have a harder and harder time crossing the treshold and even if they just get it, it might very well not be enough for a Moderate-Christian-SD majority.

So for obvious reasons, the left-wing will not cooperate with the SD, and for the Moderates, there isn't really a viable majority with the SD yet. If such a one turns up consistently in the polls, then it would make sense for the Moderates to look towards the SD.
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Diouf
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« Reply #8 on: October 10, 2015, 07:01:12 AM »
« Edited: October 10, 2015, 07:04:15 AM by Diouf »

From what I have read, this time the Alliance parties will all submit individual budgets, and will only vote for their own, which means that the government's budget will still win. However, that is only for this year's budget negotiations. They haven't made any promises for the coming years yet, so if they, along with SD, vote through their own budget or remove central parts of the government budget, then Löfven might call an extraordinary election again at some point. But as the last time it happened, it is not that clear whether others than the SD want new elections, unless the Moderates and the Christian Democrats decide that they will cooperate with the SD. But it is probably a bit too early for that yet.
An alternative is that the Greens leave the government, and the Social Democrats form a government on their own which will then largely cooperate with the Alliance parties when getting legislation passed.

Understandable that the Christian Democrats wanted to do something to make a stand. The last poll had them all the way down at 1.9%.
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Diouf
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« Reply #9 on: October 10, 2015, 03:52:50 PM »
« Edited: October 10, 2015, 04:40:29 PM by Diouf »

I really have difficulty in fathoming the short sighted thinking of the Christian Democrats (and the rest of the Alliance) with this since right now it seems quite unlikely that the Alliance will be larger than the Social Democrats and Sweden Democrats put together after the next election, which means that SD would only need to vote for the S budget to defeat an Alliance government budget. Basically the Alliance have just flushed their only chance at implementing economic policies without serious concessions to either the Social Democrats or Sweden Democrats down the toilet.

The Christian Democrats need something to differentiate themselves; with a decreasing share for the Alliance parties, there are fewer votes for them to loan as well. For some the 1.9 % opinion poll perhaps made them make up their mind completely. I would think that some of them counted on the other Alliance parties keeping the deal, which would probably have made the Christian Democrats surge quite markedly as they would have stood out. Now that surge might be less certain.
And as Ingemann says, the mistake was making the agreement, not tossing it again. At least they could have forced the Social Democrats to make deals with the Alliance instead of just allowing them to carry through their policies with the Greens and the Left Party. With small movements toward a tougher immigration and refugee policy from at least some of the Alliance parties, there is probably a bigger chance that they could get SD support for their budget. SD will probably never support a budget that is proposed by the Greens and the Left Party.
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Diouf
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« Reply #10 on: October 10, 2015, 04:50:39 PM »

But the Alliance in its current state would likely never ever seek support from the Sweden Democrats for its budgets, because that would lead to the break up of the Alliance. The Centre Party, as well as the Liberals and parts of the Moderates are just as opposed to the Sweden Democrats as the Social Democrats are. The Sweden Democrats are only interested in getting through their immigration policies, the rest doesn't really matter, and the Centre Party in particular would probably be more likely to work with the Social Democrats than SD, and that's saying something considering the current hate-on they seem to have Löfven & the gang.

I wasn't thinking of actively seeking support, but if some of the toughening of policies suggested by some of the Alliance parties are included, then it's hardly impossible that the SD would decide to support such a budget. Maybe a return somewhat to the situation before the last election.
With the current opinion polls, it would even work with a much smaller Alliance if the Centre Party (and the Liberals) don't want to join such an exercise. Moderates + SD only lack 3 seats from a majority in the latest Sentio poll. And if the Christian Democrats get a bounce and get above the threshold, their support will probably be enough.
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Diouf
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« Reply #11 on: January 20, 2017, 05:17:26 AM »

The cracks in the Alliance is growing stronger by the day. The Moderates thinks the Alliance parties should submit a common budget this fall, which, if supported by the Sweden Democrats, would get a majority. This would force the Red-Green government to resign as it would be untenable for a government to stay in power, implementing the opposition's budget. The Christian Democrats support this idea, while the Centre Party and the Liberals reject it. We might see a complete collapse of the Alliance, if the Moderates and the Christian Democrats continue to oppose keeping the Red-Green government in power. The Moderates still reject government or budget negotiations with Sweden Democrats, but they are no longer ruling out some cooperation with them on comittees. The "Danish model" of Moderate-Christian government supported by Sweden Democrats will probably not be an option already at the next election, but we are closer to a point, where it could happen. The difference between the Moderates and the two small socially liberal Alliance parties seem to be getting bigger and bigger.


http://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=2054&artikel=6611471
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Diouf
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« Reply #12 on: March 17, 2017, 05:05:24 PM »

Moderates at their lowest level ever in Sentio poll - 11% lower than Sweden Democrats.
Sentio is among the half of pollsters that show Sweden Democrats high, and were closer to their actual level at the latest general election.

Left: 8.9%
Social Democrat: 24.1%
Green: 3.4%

Liberal: 3.9%
Centre: 11.0%
Moderate: 15.2%
Christian Democrat: 2.4%

Sweden Democrat: 26.0%

Feminist Initiative: 3.0%

Alliance: 32.5%
Red-Greens: 36.4%
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Diouf
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« Reply #13 on: April 26, 2017, 05:23:48 AM »

Poll by Som-institute at Göteborg University. 52% wants Sweden to take in fewer refugees, 24% is opposed to taking fewer refugees. 96% of SD voters wants fewer refugees, but also a majority of Moderate (64%) and KD (53%) voters support it. For the Social Democrats and Liberals the number is 42 and 41 %, and even in Annie Löof's Centre Party, 34% wants fewer refugees. The number of people opposed to fewer refugees is not mentioned for the parties, but at least for the Social Democrats and the Liberals, it seems likely that more people prefer the proposal than are opposed to it considering the low overall score for opposition to the notion.

53% would like a vote on EU-membership, but 56% thinks it's a bad idea to leave the EU, while only 22% support it.
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Diouf
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« Reply #14 on: July 24, 2017, 11:18:17 AM »

Also, there is now some kind of scandal regarding many of the top Social Democrat ministers regarding the leak of confidential information, which could perhaps hurt their poll numbers further.


https://www.ft.com/content/d9e15fe4-7051-11e7-aca6-c6bd07df1a3c
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Diouf
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« Reply #15 on: July 24, 2017, 01:49:46 PM »
« Edited: July 24, 2017, 01:58:41 PM by Diouf »

Also, there is now some kind of scandal regarding many of the top Social Democrat ministers regarding the leak of confidential information, which could perhaps hurt their poll numbers further.

https://www.ft.com/content/d9e15fe4-7051-11e7-aca6-c6bd07df1a3c

Behind paywall

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-sweden-securityleak-idUSKBN1A926F?il=0

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Diouf
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« Reply #16 on: July 26, 2017, 09:59:08 AM »

Aftonbladet refers to a government source, which says they are considering whether to resign and give Kinberg Bartra the possibility to create a government with majority support. There are all kinds of rumours at the moment, but this option would be quite interesting. The Moderates and the Christian Democrats have opened up for cooperation with the Sweden Democrats, while the Center Party and the Liberals are strongly opposed. So in a best case scenario for the Social Democrats, they could give the Alliance the chance to form a government, watch them tear themselves apart, and then form a new government. However, I am always doubtful about these "give the power to the others because it might be difficult for them" in the same way as the "it is a good election to lose" stuff. Anker Jørgensen's government in Denmark apparently thought this way in 1982, and allowed Conservative Poul Schlüter the chance to form a government, and he ended up sitting 11 years.
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Diouf
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« Reply #17 on: July 26, 2017, 10:49:25 AM »

So this scandal is about a private company that was managing Sweden's security data but it was revealed that the deal was terribly bad made, thus threatening the data of the swedish government and swedish citizens, right?

A bit more complex. The crime is that an agency executive decided not to follow the country's laws. The political issues are that the ministers are accused of acting too late against this and that they did not inform Parliament's Committee of these wrongdoings and the fact that confidential information was available to foreignerns without security clearance.

The starting point is quite rightly what you mention. In 2011, the National Audit Office recommended that more of the Swedish state's IT was outsourced to save money. A recommendation that the Reinfeldt goverment obviously agreed with, and which several government department and agencies then started to pursue. In 2015, i.e. after the change of goverment, the Transport Agency as a part of this plan decide to pursue the outsourcing of the vehicle register (including many military vehicles) and the driver's license register. However, the Transport Agency's chief executive Maria Ågren was frustated by the process being hampered by different laws and regulations regarding IT security and the handling of personal information, so she decided that the agency should stop following these laws to make the process run smoother! This meant that IBM technicians in Czechia and Serbia without security clearance had access to confidential information. The Swedish security police found out about this and pushed to stop the process, at first without success. Both the Defence Minister Peter Hultqvist and Minister of Home Affairs Anders Ygeman were informed about this in early 2016. The same was officials in the Transport Ministry, although the Minister Anna Johannsson claims she only got the information herself much later. The Agency' executive Ågren was fired in January 2017, and when media found out why she was fired, the ball started to roll. At no point was parliament informed about the security breach nor the fact that a agency executive willingly broke the law, which is why the Alliance and Sweden Democrats have declared no confidence in the three ministers.
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Diouf
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« Reply #18 on: July 26, 2017, 01:19:12 PM »

Shameful attitude by the government. Why didn't Lofven dismissed these 3 ministers? That is quite puzzling... Nonetheless, and contrary to other countries, i hope someone is held accountable.

Well, the expected outcome was that the opposition parties would have forced Transport Minister Anna Johannsson to resign; a sacrifice Lövfen would probably have made without too many complaints. However, since the Alliance decided to target all involved ministers, the situation is another. The PM would look incredible weak if he just accepted three ministers to be forced to leave their positions, especially in key areas like defence and home affairs.

Lövfen will hold a press conference tomorrow at 10.00
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Diouf
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« Reply #19 on: July 27, 2017, 04:21:57 AM »

Home Affairs Minister Anders Ygeman and Infrastructure Minister Anna Johansson have left the government, along with Health Minister Gabriel Wikström who's been on sick leave since the beginning of may for depression.

Tomas Eneroth (S), Social Democratic parliamentary group leader becomes the new Minister for Infrastructure
Justice- and Migration Minister Morgan Johansson (S) becomes Minister for Justice and Home Affairs
Social Security Minister Annika Strandhäll (S) who's been acting Health Minister since Wikström went on leave takes over those duties permanently, with her title changed to Minister for Health and Social Affairs.
Helene Fritzon (S) joins the government as the new Minister for Migration.
Anders Ygeman will (likely) be elected as the Social Democrats' new parliamentary group leader.

Peter Hultqvist stays on as Minister for Defence.


So now the question is whether the Alliance will follow through on its no-confidence vote against the Minister for Defence
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Diouf
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« Reply #20 on: August 23, 2017, 09:58:33 AM »

For the simple reason that the Alliance feel the need to show some kind of strength when they're unable unify over the issue of how they should govern when there's a Red-Green plurality in a hung parliament, they do this. Yes of course they don't like the particular policies put forward, but if a majority of the Riksdag can't tolerate a government's fiscal policy you bring it down by presenting an alternative budget or with a vote of no confidence in the Prime Minister. But because they can't agree on how to act after such a vote goes through they settle for this weird halfway point, which is taking out individual members of the cabinet. An instrument which in the past has only really been used when a cabinet member has done something extremely irresponsible, not for implementing a budget which the cabinet has collectively approved.

I agree, that this constant drama with Alliance taking down individual ministers etc is a weird charade to try to cover for the fact that they are keeping the centre-left government in power. But with their big disagreements internally, it is perhaps not a bad strategy per se to try to wear down the government while not having to face the dilemma of how to take over power. Hopefully a new Moderate leader (who could that be?) can say clearly that they need to cooperate with the Sweden Democrats, whether in a Danish or Norwegian model. AKB has, if nothing else, at least been a useful figure in starting this process. A new leader can then take the step fully. If the Centre Party and/or Liberals reject this, then the Moderates must let go of the whole Alliance project and try to clearly align two sides in Sweden according to the cultural differences, which is likely to be a succesful strategy.
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Diouf
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« Reply #21 on: February 06, 2019, 03:29:10 PM »

Jan Björklund won't run for another term as L leader, meaning he will step down at their party congress in November. His announcement comes at the same day as a Novus poll shows L at 2.7%

SVT speculates about a number of names as possible replacements. In the wing, who opposed cooperation with the left wing, are MPs Johan Pehrson, Mats Persson and Gulan Avci as well as former Minister of Equality Nyamko Sabuni. In the pro-cooperation wing, parliamentary group leader Christer Nylander is mentioned along with Stockholm councillors  Anna Starbrink and Lotta Edholm. There are also dreams about EU Commissioner, Cecilia Malmström, but she has ruled it out repeatedly.
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Diouf
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« Reply #22 on: March 10, 2019, 03:09:12 AM »

KD 4th biggest party at 10.6%. With L under the threshold, there is a M-KD-SD majority.

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Diouf
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« Reply #23 on: March 21, 2019, 01:25:29 PM »

Christian Democrats open for negotiations with Sweden Democrats

As the first party in the Swedish parliament, the Christian Democrats are now opening for negotiations with Sweden Democrats in policy issues. KD leader Ebba Busch Thor wrote on Facebook about her party's cooperation with other parties: "With the Moderates, we have an active and close cooperation. With the Centre Party and the Liberals, we hope to govern in the future, either in a government or a budget cooperation. With the Social Democrats, Sweden Democrats, the Left Party and the Green Party, we are ready to discuss separate policy issues whenever it is meaningful to do so". Previously, all parties have shunned negotiations with Sweden Democrats in all negotiations. Will be interesting to see whether there is movement in the Moderates as well. They could be pressured if the Christian Democrats continue rising in polls.

https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/1nkW5l/kds-nya-linje-oppnar-for-att-forhandla-med-sd
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