The Big Bad Swedish Politics & News Thread

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Randomly jumping in here with two questions:

1.) Why is Stockholm a stronghold of the center-right?


2.) When I was visiting Vadstena, Odeshog, and Urnatur in May, I met two local green politicians. How strong is the Green Party in Sweden? Is it common for them to be in rural areas and small towns?

Also, we had a talk with the man who owns the treehouse hotel at Urnatur (he's one of the politicians we met) and told us he resented many Greens from the city because they believe that people should all live in cities, while he advocates that people live in the country. How strong is this divide in the Swedish Green Party?


Also, why the f*** do you people not export Kina Wafers??? They are now my favorite chocolate and they're not available in the U.S.

That is just wrong on so many levels.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Damn, did we just abandon this entire megathread? Okay, well, my time to shine then and make up for my total abandonment of Italian politics since March 15th, 2018.

Which party do you trust on the following issues?



Healthcare - SAP
Law & Order - Moderates
Immigration & Integration - SD
Education - SAP
Elder Care - SAP

In terms of opinion polling for 2022, we seem to have gone back mostly to our pre-pandemic numbers, with the SAP polling on average around 27%, just a smidge below their 2018 numbers (28%), but the big change is that the Moderates are seeing a sustained uptick from their 2018 result of less than 20% now up to around 23% and SD stuck around 20%.

The Left Party has ticked up from 8% in 2018 to 10% now, Centre is stuck at 8%, KD has come down from their random high of 12% in mid-2019 back to just 5%, and the Greens are struggling around the 4% threshold.

The big loser is the Liberals, who are polling consistently well below the 4% threshold. Their comeback attempt since 2019 by moving to the right has flopped, and they continue to be cannibalized by Centre, the Moderates, and the SAP (a little bit). I think 2022 might just be the deathblow for them at the national level; they just serve no purpose now that Centre and M have eaten into much of their liberal base and the left-liberal wing has defected to the SAP.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

I have to say that as of this time, my expectation for 2022 is that a conservative/dark blue government is formed with M+KD in government and SD abstaining to let them through. The Liberals are basically dead, but if they somehow manager to survive, they probably would join this government since their rightward turn in 2019. Meanwhile it looks like Centre might be permanently alienated from a potential Alliance reformation, but they're still too liberal to truly join the Red-Greens. We might enter a world with a Red-Green bloc + Centre grudgingly going along in exchange for major concessions against a conservative bloc.

I have to give credit to the Moderates and Ulf Kristersson for cleaning up their act over the past year and finding their footing. They've been putting out quite a lot of solid ideas about how to deal with the pandemic, crime, immigration, and the labor market, and Kristersson himself has improved in focusing on the issues instead of just whining about the Social Democrats and his annoying "socialism never works" spiel that no one cares about.

They also scored a win with the current electricity shortage playing into their pro-nuclear stance, and have built upon it with proposals for big spending on upgrading the grid, more electric car charging stations, and loosening of some restrictions on mining for metals and minerals relevant for electricity production.

The measures they proposed for COVID-19 including mandatory facemasks in public transport, enforceable by fines, as well as stronger laws allowing the closure of business such as ski resorts.

Regarding welfare-to-work:

• Create the equivalent of a double earned income tax deduction on employment for those who have been on government assistance for a long time
• Eliminate the ability to "stack" government grants and aid to prevent dependency
• Reduce taxes on the lowest income bracket

Details have not yet been determined.

I previously posted about their new work visa regulations here:

The Moderate Party introduced a labor immigration proposal for non-EU workers:

• only granting a work permit if the agreed upon salary exceeds the average monthly wage for all of Sweden (currently 31,000 SEK per month, or approximately $3800 per month).
• Implementing a grant ceiling for those on work permits
• Remove the possibility that those who submit an asylum application and are rejected can then apply for a work visa, citing the time they've already lived in Sweden
• Deny work permits for those applying for "personal assistant" jobs, since this category is abused and associated with crime and trafficking
• New maintenance requirements for those who wish to bring their families along with them
• New requirement for employers to submit a copy of an employment contracts along with work permit applications to help ensure they stick to legitimate working conditions

For the most part I don't really have any problems with these proposals, other than two very specific things:

1. The proposed minimum salary of 31,000 SEK is a bit high. I agree that the current salary requirement of 13,000 SEK / month is absurdly low, but a more reasonable minimum would be closer to 25,000 per month or so. Right now a lot of jobs that have shortages (especially healthcare and elderly care) pay between 25,000 and 30,000 SEK, so the situation in these areas would be made even worse if there is no mitigating proposal to raise wages in this sector. Furthermore, 25,000 SEK per month is not actually a bad salary, and outside of major cities, that's actually quite a solid middle class salary for one person. The 31,000 per month suggestion is too "one size fits all", which makes no sense given the extreme cost of living differences between the big cities and the rest of the country. Furthermore, the rural regions are the places where the worker shortages are most extreme and also have larger budget constraints compared to wealthier cities.

2. The maintenance requirement for families is weirdly specific and rigid. I have no qualms with the salary requirements for families, but the proposal also mandates what kind of living space you need to have. I'm not really sure how this is going to actually be enforced, unless Sweden starts sending police to people's homes to check in on them, which is absurd and a huge waste of time and resources. It reminds me of the drug testing of welfare recipients here in the U.S. that's part of being "tough on deadbeats" that ends up costing far more money than it saves.

The Swedish Trade Union Confederation (LO) and Federation of Business Owners (Företagarna) are both very positive towards these proposals, with LO suggesting issuing permits based upon a limited list of career categories to prevent saturation of lower-skilled, lower-paying jobs, while Företagarna criticized the proposed "talent visa" as being a useless tourist visa since applicants can't start working on it and the requirement for a masters degree is too restrictive, and says that professional experience and other qualitative characteristics should be taken into account. They also said the 31,000 SEK per month salary minimum was too high, given that it's equivalent to a starting salary in Stockholm for someone with a masters degree.

The Work Permit Holders Association welcomed the proposals, but also criticized the maintenance requirements regarding housing as being needlessly blunt, and said the proposals to stop the deportation of talented workers over minor administrative errors were too vague and not good enough. They also lamented the lack of any proposal to deal with work permit holders who lost their jobs due to COVID-19, lack of clarification regarding how probationary periods are treated, and the lack of anything to improve the situation with the Migration Agency, which is known for being bureaucratic, arbitrary, punitive, slow-moving, and generally just difficult to deal with all around.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

What caused Amineh Kakabaveh to leave the party?

Felt the party was not taking honor killing legislation seriously enough:

http://proletaren.se/artikel/amineh-kakabaveh-vansterpartiet-har-anpassat-sig-till-islamister

Amineh Kakabaveh has long been a strong voice in the debate on honor killings. As such, she came on a collision course with the (v) leadership who want to tone down the work against honor-related violence. Kakabaveh left the party at the end of August last year.

"The Left Party has adapted to the Islamists who believe that all criticism of their way of life and work is an expression of racism and colonialism", says Amineh Kakabaveh, now independent socialist member of parliament.

If you use the Google Translate Chrome extension, you can read a more detailed history of her issues with the Left Party and Islamism here: https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/samhalle/a/MRqvzm/vansterpartiet-utesluter-amineh-kakabaveh

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

I’m hearing that recently the Left Party has been making moves to moderate itself in both rhetoric and actions lately for electoral gain; mainly on the issues of NATO membership and/or collaboration and the EU. What policy shifts have they done here among other planks during and since the last election?

Gonna be quite honest and say that I don't really follow Vänsterpartiet, I just follow the SocDems (of which I am a paying member), Moderates, and Centre for the most part. But I think they have actually toned down some of their hard-left positions on the EU, yes, however I am not sure about any substantive changes regarding NATO other than not whining about imperialism in the Balkans anymore or whatever.

Are the Moderates continuing to view a coalition government with the Swedish Democrats as untenable or is that shifting?

They still say they refuse to go into a coalition government with them, but say they will "discuss" and "collaborate" on substantive issues where they agree on, so it's a de facto conservative coalition. SD will almost certainly vote to abstain if M+KD+SD have a majority between them, and in 2018 I believe that Jimmie Åkesson (SD party leader) said they would support an Alliance government since they said that the Moderates' immigration proposals were an "acceptable minimum".

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Knife attack reported in Vetlanda, south-central Sweden, near Jonköping. 8 people injured, suspect taken into custody after being shot by police.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Knife attack reported in Vetlanda, south-central Sweden, near Jonköping. 8 people injured, suspect taken into custody after being shot by police.

What about the question we all want to know the answer to? 

Police haven't given many details. Attacker previously known for minor crimes, and while the police are not calling it a terrorist attack, they say there are details that indicate a possible terrorist motive. They also revised the number wounded to 7 injured.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Knife attack reported in Vetlanda, south-central Sweden, near Jonköping. 8 people injured, suspect taken into custody after being shot by police.

What about the question we all want to know the answer to? 

Police haven't given many details. Attacker previously known for minor crimes, and while the police are not calling it a terrorist attack, they say there are details that indicate a possible terrorist motive. They also revised the number wounded to 7 injured.

They have also revised this back to just "attempted murder" investigation and have dropped the "possible terrorist motive" angle for now. Given the attacker's previous criminal record, this could be simply snapping and going on a rampage, mental illness, resentment, etc., let's see what they say.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Small but welcome victory against the gig economy's abuse of workers: the Swedish Transportation Workers' Union signed a collective agreement with Foodora after over a year of negotiations.

The new agreement include increased salaries and compensation for bids during certain times, annual salary increases, compensation for maintenance of bicycles and work clothes as well as pensions and insurance that are in line with Transport's other collective agreements. Routines and guidelines regarding how the parties should work for the bicycle and moped bidders' best working environment must also be updated.

The collective agreement covers the company's operations, including bicycle and moped bids. The Transport Workers' Union fought for a long time for this to also apply to Foodora's car drivers, which they eventually succeeded in doing.

Unfortunately, some 30% of Foodora's bids come from drivers who work for Hungry Delivery, and thus are not included in this agreement. But still, over 2,000 workers in Sweden will now be covered by this agreement.

Foodora is a German company that has been accused to stealing workers' wages and abusing classification of workers as independent contractors, as well as acting punitively against workers who speak out against the company. Every step taken to reign in these gig companies is a step towards progress.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

The Liberals's Party Board have announced that their goal in 2022 is to return a centre-right government. If they manage to stay in government, they almost certainly would join an M+KD government, even if it had external support from SD.

If they manage to survive, even narrowly, that would greatly boost the chances of a conservative government. If they narrowly miss the threshold, however, they could take hundreds of thousands of votes and a dozen seats with them, and risk such a government (not unlike FI narrowly missing in 2014 and taking 195,000 votes and 15 seats that could have boosted the centre-left coalition).

The declaration must be confirmed by the party council vote as well.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

New poll from Demoskop shows Moderates narrowly take the lead as the largest party:



Should be noted that Aftonbladet is a social democratic newspaper that is openly affiliated with the SAP and LO (Swedish Trade Confederation), and that polls by Demoskop are unusually pessimistic about the SAP and Greens and unusually bullish on the Moderates. (But that doesn't mean it's necessarily wrong, of course)

It is interesting that they include the Liberals in that little pie chart as part of the January Agreement while excluding the Left Party from that share. Adding the Left Party would give the Red-Greens+Centre 49.2%, while subtracting the Liberals would give the Red-Greens+Centre 46,5%, and further subtracting the Greens would leave just 43,4%.

Since late-March 2020, only three polls have shown a party other than the SAP in the lead, but given that all pollsters find a renewed Moderate surge, Liberal death spiral, and Greens perilously on the edge, a dark-blue conservative government is still my expectation for next year. But we've still got exactly 18 months to go until September 2022.

I am curious, however, if Stefan Löfvén will step down at the end of this year or perhaps in 2022 to let someone else Magdalena Andersson take the reins as PM and fight next year's election campaign on their own. He seems exhausted, both personally and politically, and is associated with the past 7 years as part of a shaky minority government that relies heavily on liberal parties and struggles to gain consistent public support.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

In an interview today, Annie Lööf said that the Centre Party would be prepared to enter into government with the Social Democrats and Greens after the 2022 election.

She said that the door to joining a M+KD(+L?) government is closed so long as they are prepared to negotiate a budget with SD. Of course, she also reiterated that she opposes giving the Left Party influence on the budget as well.

..............

So, this just increases the likelihood of a conservative bloc on one hand vs. a Red-Green block awkwardly in a de facto alliance with the Centre Party on the other.

But hard to see how an SAP + Centre relationship doesn't end in disaster for at least one of the parties. Lööf is still a Thatcherite which would be suicide for the SAP, while the Centre cannot just shift left suddenly. It's an irreconcilable arrangement.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

The Liberals have voted to endorse opening talks with SD at their party congress. 59 in favor, 31 opposed, 1 abstention.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

But hard to see how an SAP + Centre relationship doesn't end in disaster for at least one of the parties. Lööf is still a Thatcherite which would be suicide for the SAP, while the Centre cannot just shift left suddenly. It's an irreconcilable arrangement.

Exactly how right-wing is C? How comparable is its ideology to parties like the Norwegian and Finnish Centre? And, long-term, what are the chances of it shifting to the centre-left and becoming more like, for example, Radikale Venstre?

Swedish Centre is extremely neoliberal right now under Lööf, at least at the national level. Local chapters are still a mix of left, right, and center liberalism depending on the region in question, but at the national level it is very right-wing in economics (in some cases, moreso than the Moderates) while being more liberal in social/cultural issues.

Finnish Centre under Sipilä was similar, but since the 2019 election debacle and Sipilä"s government being unpopular and seen as a failure, has moved more in line with Norwegian Centre of claiming the "progressive center", a mix of left- and center-liberalism while working with the centre-left bloc.

Going to a more left-liberal stance would require getting rid of Lööf and risks sending the party back to its pre-Lööf struggles of being permanently in that 4-6% range. Lööf's enviro-feminist libertarianism is what has attracted many voters from the Moderates and Liberals, especially young women in urban areas,  and revived the party. I don't see it happening unless the party starts sinking in the polls again, which I also don't see happening because Centre is now fulfilling demand for such a party.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Then what's the difference between conservative liberals and, well, conservatives?

It can be hard to wrap your brain around due to the superficial similarities but there is a meaningful difference. Liberalism and Conservatism are very broad terms that encompass a lot of different shades and flavors depending on time, place, and party. Over the past 40 years, it has gotten much more difficult to differentiate between conservative liberalism and liberal conservatism, because in practice they often align.

I would say that, generally speaking, conservative liberalism still puts great emphasis on internal economic freedom, while embracing conservative stances on social/cultural issues such as crime, law & order, immigration, and integration. I think the best example of this would be Norway's Progress Party, which supports radically neoliberal economics on things such as taxes and the welfare state, while still embracing anti-EU nationalism and being strongly anti-refugee and anti-Islam.

Meanwhile, conservatism values stability to a much greater extent, and will embrace anti-liberal policies to achieve it when needed. For example, see how the Moderates in Sweden have moved to the center regarding the welfare state since 2006, embracing certain pillars of it (e.g. state-funded healthcare) while allowing more private competition. A national state-funded healthcare system can be seen as conservative if it avoids a more statist approach from a left-wing party or undercuts the support of left-wing parties, and thus preferable by conservative parties as a way of preserving the existing order. Conservative parties could also embrace things such as higher taxes to fund defense or infrastructure projects, or restricting free trade to protect domestic interests (think back to the way conservatives were often aligned with the industrial and landed elites and would embrace tariffs to protect those industries and the elites' profits). They could also embrace carbon taxes and environmental regulations to combat climate change, while conservative liberal parties will still prefer market-based solutions (or in the case of the Progress Party, reject climate change science entirely). On immigration, conservatives could be either restrictive (if more national conservative) or more permissive (if liberal conservative). More authoritarian conservatives could start to erode political rights and freedoms that would put them in conflict with conservative liberals. The Progress Party of Norway opposed legalizing same-sex marriage in 2008, while both the Swedish Liberals and Moderates all voted in favor of legalizing same-sex marriage in 2009.

It's obviously very hard to pin down the differences between conservative liberalism and conservatism in a general sense, because it depends so heavily on the specific country, parties, issues, and time period. But I hope this was somewhat helpful?  

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Notes:
1) There is no possible way that I could've been surprised by the fact that some of the leading critics of the January Agreement are from Västerbotten. This totally checks out with the degree of disdain I felt from C members I met when I lived in Umeå and was still a member of S. Also, as someone who grew up in Norrland surrounded by plenty of left-leaning people who despised Maud Olofsson, I found it hilarious to see her described as a "goddess of the Norrland prairies". Especially considering that you can't really find much of a prairie anywhere in Norrland.

I wonder how a prolonged S-C partnership on the national level will impact the party in the North. Especially in those places like Vindeln and Robertsfors where C have been the main opposition party to S and pretty much see them as sworn enemies.

[SNIP]

4) Maybe I should feel pity for those C members who are genuinely despairing in this new political landscape where they feel like their only option is supporting an S-led government. But I can't help but to think back to those CUF (and LUF) members I met in Umeå around the time of the 2014 election. Those who were utterly convinced that if any party would break the cordon sanitaire around SD it would be S. Obviously because S completely lacked principles and would do anything for power, unlike the brave and principled defenders of democracy that you could find in the four Alliance parties. I just can't help but to feel a little bit of schadenfreude.

Actually, why is this the case? Why is Västerbotten's Centre Party so hostile to the SAP? In most other northern regions, don't they usually work together? I know Västerbotten has a peculiar history but I don't understand the region too well.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Uhhhh there might be a snap election in Sweden?

Left is threatening vote of no confidence over housing market reforms. Of course, the Sweden Democrats are hopping onboard with this, so they'd have enough votes to bring forward a motion, and if all the other Alliance parties (other than Centre) join, they'd have enough votes to pass the motion, leading to the government resigning and possibly a snap election

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Current polling average:

Centre-left+Centre: 51%
Conservative Bloc: 49%

Greens right at 4% threshold, Liberals below at 3%


I would argue that the center right has the hardest time in an upcoming election, because many Moderate voters are no longer willing to strategically vote for the Liberals, who have been bleeding votes to Center and the Moderates.  Meanwhile many Social Democratic voters are still perfectly happy to strategically vote for the Greens and save them

Of course, that's assuming these numbers don't change much, which isn't at all a given

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

I don't think the vote of no confidence will go through for several reasons:

1. The housing proposal only affects 1% of residences
2. This could backfire severely against the Left if they are seen as jeopardizing the current government
3. It could also backfire against the conservative bloc if they are seen as creating drama when there's still a pandemic
4. Regular elections are a year away, voters will be mad if subjected to yet more political drama on top of the past several years

Of course on the other hand the new Left Party leader is an unknown quantity, she has made housing a hill to die on and she could be willing to risk it all.

So we'll see

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

I don't think the vote of no confidence will go through for several reasons:

The Left Party has pushed it to far to back out know.

Looks like you're right: https://www.adressa.no/nyheter/utenriks/2021/06/17/V%C3%A4nsterpartiet-Vi-ombestemmer-oss-ikke-24142494.ece

The Left Party confirmed an hour ago that it will support a vote of no-confidence on Monday.

This breaks the decades-long policy of the Left to never vote against an SAP government, only to abstain or vote in favor. Does anyone know how long that policy dates back? I would assume late-1940s or 1950s?

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

The Liberals have just announced that they will not vote out the government. However, the sum of the Moderates, Christian Democrats, Sweden Democrats and Left Party is 182, seven more votes than necessary to pass a vote of no confidence.

So it is still going to happen

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Poll of voters about the situation:

41% believe the vote of no confidence is a bad idea
40% believe it to be a good idea
19% no opinion/don't know

However:

only 29% think an extra election would be a good idea
54% think bad idea
17% no opinion

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Actually, why is this the case? Why is Västerbotten's Centre Party so hostile to the SAP? In most other northern regions, don't they usually work together? I know Västerbotten has a peculiar history but I don't understand the region too well.

Can you tell us more about that?

Just realized that I completely ignored you on this, apologies, but three things make it stand out in my mind from studying Swedish elections:

1. in modern times, Västerbotten is unusual in the north for how it tends to give more support to the Left Party compared to the other northern counties, at the expense of the Social Democrats. The difference isn't massive but it does cause Västerbotten to stand out on party shading maps. Maybe it has something to do with the economic structure of the county, or maybe an unusually strong and popular local Left Party.

2. On some election maps, there is a small remote valley district in the western part of Västerbotten that has, throughout history, given the largest share of its votes to the Liberals (1970), Centre Party (1973 - 1982) and the Christian Democrats (1991). Everything around it supports the Social Democrats as the largest party consistently. Absolutely no idea why this remote district does this.

3. Before the Great Depression, Västerbotten was, believe it or not, an anti-socialist liberal stronghold, which is mind-blowing to think about, but this time I do have an explanation: Västerbotten and Norrbotten were very rural and dominated by small-holdings who viewed the Social Democrats as benefitting industrial workers to the expense of everyone else, and who were also scared by the more radical socialist elements within the SAP (who later would split off into the Communists) and thus felt that they would be the losers should the SAP get their way. This ended in part because of the Great Depression destroying most of their livelihoods, and in part because of the Social Democrats striking a bargain with the Agrarians in 1932, committing themselves to economically aiding smallholders and other farmers in exchange for Agrarian support for social reforms. The Conservatives discredited themselves during WWII, and while they recovered their pre-war strength by the 1980s, they never came back in the North because, by this point, they were the ones who represented the cities in the festering urban-rural culture war.

However, I'm not sure why Västerbotten took so long to fall to the SAP. In the March and September 1914 elections, neighboring Norbotten and Ångermannland (now part of Västernorrland) voted for the SAP, while in 1917 Norbotten and southern parts of Ångermanland voted for the Social Democratic Left Party (who later became the Communists), while Västerbotten remained a liberal stronghold throughout this period. In 1920 and 1921, the far north of Sweden swung back towards the conservatives and liberals, but in 1924 Ångermannland began voting SAP again. In 1932, all of northern Sweden except Västerbotten fell to the SAP, which fell to the SAP in 1936, and it wasn't until 1940/1944 that Västerbotten became an SAP stronghold, although flashes of weakness would show up as early as 1948.

But again, I'm not exactly sure WHY Västerbotten continues to give below-average numbers for the SAP compared to the rest of northern Sweden, especially that one little valley district on the Norwegian border that loves smaller parties.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Anyone interested in some morning political drama can watch here: https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/9O57Qd/liverapportering-om-regeringskrisen

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

The motiom has passed, the government falls. Press conference by Löfvén in 35 minutes

Vote was 181 in favor, 109 against, 51 abstentions