The Big Bad Swedish Politics & News Thread

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Kristersson already gave up, after just one day

Yesterday the Moderates attempted to bribe Centre or at least get a defector to abstain by announcing a major investment package for rural areas, but Centre immediately smacked it down. A spokesman said that Centre's ideal constellation would be to reassemble the Alliance with the support of the Green Party to gain a centre-right majority not reliant on SD or S+V

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Löfven up next, but now the rogue Left Party MP is considering voting "no", which would cause a 175 - 174 majority against.

[Flyersfan232]

Without Centre in the mix, what is Kristersson hoping for? SAP no-shows? Or are they still courting C?

Honestly no idea.

I guess maybe a defector from C? This defector would of course likely end their political career, and i would think risk getting expelled outright from the party. Alternatively this person could defect outright from the party entirely, unsure of how this works in the Riksdag.

Alternatively if there are SAP absentees, they could form a government, avoid controversial issues for one year and just focus on COVID and dare the opposition to restart the government crisis by voting the government down, which could damage the opposition, and hope to get a mandate in 2022.

But yeah, otherwise not sure what the game plan is here

anyone from the c that could join l or m?

[Former President tack50]

Kristersson already gave up, after just one day

Yesterday the Moderates attempted to bribe Centre or at least get a defector to abstain by announcing a major investment package for rural areas, but Centre immediately smacked it down. A spokesman said that Centre's ideal constellation would be to reassemble the Alliance with the support of the Green Party to gain a centre-right majority not reliant on SD or S+V

Even if we were to assume that the Green Party is willing to commit suicide by doing that; how exactly would that work given that S+SD+V have a "blocking majority" between the three of them? (and therefore any hypothetical government must include at least an abstention from one of them)

[Astatine]

So, with L having at least announced to switch back to M+KD, can they expect to be kept alive by some Moderate voters or rather not?

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Löfven's deadline is today. He must do one of the following:

1. Ask for more negotiation time
2. Announce a new government
3. Give up

Centre today said they would be fine with voting to keep Löfven on as PM, but are still being coy about the budget for 2022. This is more or less the same thing that the Left Party said, of course the issue is that Centre refuses to negotiate the Left. Great fun!

Several Liberal members have said they do not intend to vote against Löfven as PM, in response to which party leader Nyamko Sabuni said she expects all MPs to follow the party line. However, not sure what the penalties are?

[Lord Halifax]

So, with L having at least announced to switch back to M+KD, can they expect to be kept alive by some Moderate voters or rather not?

Tactical voting for a party polling at 1.5 to 2 percentage points below the threshold seems pointless, it's more likely that some L voters will vote M to avoid wasting their vote.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

So, with L having at least announced to switch back to M+KD, can they expect to be kept alive by some Moderate voters or rather not?

Tactical voting for a party polling at 1.5 to 2 percentage points below the threshold seems pointless, it's more likely that some L voters will vote M to avoid wasting their vote.

Yeah, if they were closer to 4% then they probably would cross over, but below 3% is the valley of death for a party in Sweden and makes total collapse more likely

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

SAP party board unanimously voted to open negotiations with the Centre Party, and Löfven has informed the Speaker that he intends to accept nomination as the PM candidate for an SAP+Green government.

Of course, the Left Party must still give its blessing to whatever agreement they reach, which is not guaranteed.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Kristersson already gave up, after just one day

Yesterday the Moderates attempted to bribe Centre or at least get a defector to abstain by announcing a major investment package for rural areas, but Centre immediately smacked it down. A spokesman said that Centre's ideal constellation would be to reassemble the Alliance with the support of the Green Party to gain a centre-right majority not reliant on SD or S+V

Even if we were to assume that the Green Party is willing to commit suicide by doing that; how exactly would that work given that S+SD+V have a "blocking majority" between the three of them? (and therefore any hypothetical government must include at least an abstention from one of them)

Ignored you, sorry, but in such a constellation, the hope would likely be that the SAP would vote to abstain on such a minority government (thus allowing it to pass), like they tolerated a minority Alliance government from 2010 to 2014 and the Alliance tolerated a Red-Green minority government from 2014 to 2018.

[Helsinkian]

Löfven continues as Prime Minister. What an anticlimax.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Löfven continues as Prime Minister. What an anticlimax.

That was faster than i expected. I guess there is still drama awaiting for the budget.

Vote was 116 in favor (all of SAP + Greens), 60 abstentions (Centre + Left + one rogue Liberal), 173 against (M, L, SD, KD)

[The Lord Marbury]

Stefan Löfven will be stepping down as party leader and Prime Minister at the Social Democratic party congress in November.

Bring on all the speculations about who his successor will be. My money's on Finance Minister Magdalena Andersson.

[Mike88]

Stefan Löfven will be stepping down as party leader and Prime Minister at the Social Democratic party congress in November.

Bring on all the speculations about who his successor will be. My money's on Finance Minister Magdalena Andersson.

What are the reasons for this sudden exit?

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Stefan Löfven will be stepping down as party leader and Prime Minister at the Social Democratic party congress in November.

Bring on all the speculations about who his successor will be. My money's on Finance Minister Magdalena Andersson.

What are the reasons for this sudden exit?

He's in a weak spot given the summer crisis, and the SAP's poll numbers have sagged hard recently, so he wants to give the party a new leader who could give the party new life ahead of next year's elections.

He's also probably just tired of the job, having been party leader since 2012, PM since 2014, and his tenure has been marked by almost constant crisis and instability.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

There were actually quite a lot of murmurs about Löfven stepping down before the 2022 election before the pandemic. But I think most people presumed that because of the pandemic he would stay on.

Anyway, considering how short time there is to the party congress in September and that there is only a year left until the election, I can't see anyone else than Magdalena Andersson succeeding him.

[Astatine]

If Löfven had resigned earlier, it might have been quite likely that all of the independent Nordic countries (Iceland, Denmark, Norway, Finland, Sweden + Estonia if one wants to identify it as "Nordic") would've had a female head of government simultaneously. Since Solberg (and perhaps Katrín) is probably gone by November, we won't see that happen, though.

[The Lord Marbury]

Two polls on who should succeed Löfven, one of all voters and one of those who voted for S in the last election.

Who should succeed Stefan Löfven as leader of the Social Democrats?
(all voters, Aftonbladet/Demoskop, 22-23 August)
Magdalena Andersson: 26%
Mikael Damberg: 15%
Lena Hallengren: 8%
Ardalan Shekarabi: 5%
Anders Ygeman: 4%
Peter Hultqvist: 3%
Ibrahim Baylan: 1%
Someone else: 11%

Who should succeed Stefan Löfven as leader of the Social Democrats?
(S voters, SVT/Novus, 23-24 August)
Magdalena Andersson: 48%
Lena Hallengren: 13%
Mikael Damberg: 8%
Anders Ygeman: 5%

So Andersson is clearly the runaway favourite. Though the question is how much the constant talk in the media in the past few days about she being the clear frontrunner may have influenced those who responded to this poll.

[The Lord Marbury]

Magdalena Andersson has now received the backing of six party districts, including the biggest right-leaning district Stockholm County and the two biggest left-leaning districts, Skåne and the City of Stockholm. As well as the youth league, the chair of the trade union confederation LO, and from five of her fellow cabinet members. Including Anders Ygeman, Mikael Damberg and Ardalan Shekarabi, so pretty much all of her possible challengers.

Clearly the only thing that can stop her from becoming leader now is some kind of major scandal.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Elections for the Church of Sweden ended yesterday, here are the results:

Turnout: 17.5%, decrease of 1.6% compared to 2017
251 seats total


SAP: 27.6% // 70 seats (-2.7%, -6)
Posk (non-partisan): 19.5% // 31 seats (+2.4%, +5)
Centre: 11.1% // 31 seats (-2.6%, -3)
Civic Alternative: 8% // 19 seats (-0.6%, -3)
SD: 7.8% // 19 seats (-1.5%, -5 seats)
Left: 7.4% // 18 seats (+4%, +9 seats)
Open Church: 5.4% // 13 seats (+1%, +2)
Bold Church: 3.5% // 8 seats (-0.5%, -2)
Greens: 3.3% // 8 seats (+0.9%, +2)
Christian Democrats: 2.8% // 7 seats (-0.2%, n/c)
Free Liberals: 1.6% // 4 seats (-1.4%, -3)
Alternative for Sweden: 1.2% // 3 seats (new)
Heaven and Earth: 0.6% // 1 seat (new)

Pundits are saying turnout was surprisingly high. 5 million people were eligible to vote. You must be a memebr of the Church of Sweden and 16 years old to vote.

AfS apparently invested heavily in this election but failed miserably. There is no threshold, so even small groups cam get seats. Disappointing results for SD and Centre. SAP middling, probably best seen as a defensive victory since they mobilized their voters well enough. Big victory for the Left Party, however.

[crals]

Is "Civic Alternative" the Moderates?

[The Lord Marbury]

Is "Civic Alternative" the Moderates?

Yes, they were formed ahead of the 2013 elections when the Moderates decided not to stand in the election. But in practice they are the Moderates, even if they're not formally affiliated.

Same goes for the Left, Liberal, Green and Christian Democratic nomination groups in the Church elections, which are technically all fully independent from the political parties. Even if it would be hard to find a single member of those groups who isn't also a member of their corresponding political party.

[The Lord Marbury]

The Social Democratic nomination committee have officially nominated Finance Minister Magdalena Andersson to be elected as party leader at the party congress in November. A mere formality at this point, all 26 party districts had already nominated her.

If nothing unexpected happens between now and then, she'll become Sweden's first female PM in about a month and a half.

[The Lord Marbury]

https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/magdalena-andersson-elected-as-new-social-democrat-leader

Magdalena Andersson has just been elected as the 11th leader of the Social Democrats at their 41st party congress in Gothenburg. She will be holding her first major speech as party leader tomorrow at 10am CET, but she spoke briefly after her election. She outlined her three main priorities as retaking democratic control over the education, healthcare and eldery care sectors, Sweden leading the fight against climate change, and battling segregation and gang violence.

If everything goes smoothly and Löfvens hands in his resignation to the Speaker on Monday she could be elected as Prime Minister and have her new cabinet in place by Friday next week. Things could take more time if negotiations with V, C and MP prove more difficult.

Currently MP and C seem to have a lot of difficulty in reaching an agreement regarding liberalisation of regulations concerning construction near lakes, rivers, seas, etc., something which C demanded in order to let Löfven form government again earlier this year. There are some rumours that MP may end up leaving the government if they're unable to force C to back down.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Stefan Löfven has submitted his resignation as Prime Minister



Centre has announced they will support Andersson, Left hasn't said anything yet but it's likely to happen. No date has been set for her election yet.

Of course, the next budget is due in December, so an Andersson government could easily collapse within a month