The Big Bad Swedish Politics & News Thread

[Diouf]

Also, there is now some kind of scandal regarding many of the top Social Democrat ministers regarding the leak of confidential information, which could perhaps hurt their poll numbers further.

https://www.ft.com/content/d9e15fe4-7051-11e7-aca6-c6bd07df1a3c

Behind paywall

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-sweden-securityleak-idUSKBN1A926F?il=0

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[Gustaf]

The whole thing is insane. This government is so incompetent it defies belief...

[The Lord Marbury]

The Alliance have announced that they will put forward a vote of no confidence against three government ministers for their role in the handling of the leaks in the Transport Agency, which Jimmie Åkesson have announced he'll support as well so we'll likely have three new ministers in a few weeks. The ministers facing the confidence vote are Minister for Infrastructure Anna Johansson (S), Minister for Home Affairs Anders Ygeman (S) and Minister for Defence Peter Hultqvist (S). So looks like the Alliance gets to have the show of force they wanted after all, not surprising at all to see that they jumped at the chance here before the Constitutional Affairs Committee has even gotten their investigation going. It also distracts people from talking too much about the fact that the outsourcing of the Transport Agency's (and other agencies) IT system started under the Alliance government I suppose.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Rumours that the government will resign later today in response to the announcement that the right will vote no confidence for three of Löfven's cabinet ministers.

Prime minister Löfven calling an early election is also another thing that is being rumoured.

[Tender Branson]

Rumours that the government will resign later today in response to the announcement that the right will vote no confidence for three of Löfven's cabinet ministers.

Prime minister Löfven calling an early election is also another thing that is being rumoured.

How long would it roughly take until the new election is held ?

[Diouf]

Aftonbladet refers to a government source, which says they are considering whether to resign and give Kinberg Bartra the possibility to create a government with majority support. There are all kinds of rumours at the moment, but this option would be quite interesting. The Moderates and the Christian Democrats have opened up for cooperation with the Sweden Democrats, while the Center Party and the Liberals are strongly opposed. So in a best case scenario for the Social Democrats, they could give the Alliance the chance to form a government, watch them tear themselves apart, and then form a new government. However, I am always doubtful about these "give the power to the others because it might be difficult for them" in the same way as the "it is a good election to lose" stuff. Anker Jørgensen's government in Denmark apparently thought this way in 1982, and allowed Conservative Poul Schlüter the chance to form a government, and he ended up sitting 11 years.

[Mike88]

So this scandal is about a private company that was managing Sweden's security data but it was revealed that the deal was terribly bad made, thus threatening the data of the swedish government and swedish citizens, right?

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

So this scandal is about a private company that was managing Sweden's security data but it was revealed that the deal was terribly bad made, thus threatening the data of the swedish government and swedish citizens, right?

Pretty much, yes. Combined with the fact that the people handling the security data didn't even have the proper security clearance, which means the arrangement was highly illegal, and that it appears that the government might have known about the information but concealed it from the media and the opposition and not taken the correct steps to remedy the problem before it was discovered by the media.     

[Barnes]

Oh, dear, it always seems to be government by crisis with these chaps. Of course, I still support Löfven quite happily.

A question re: confidence motions: if the Riksdag expresses a lack of confidence in a specific minister would that in turn compel the entire Government to resign/call a snap election? Those are rather murky waters with the Westminster system, so I am wondering if it is more clear cut in Sweden.

[Diouf]

So this scandal is about a private company that was managing Sweden's security data but it was revealed that the deal was terribly bad made, thus threatening the data of the swedish government and swedish citizens, right?

A bit more complex. The crime is that an agency executive decided not to follow the country's laws. The political issues are that the ministers are accused of acting too late against this and that they did not inform Parliament's Committee of these wrongdoings and the fact that confidential information was available to foreignerns without security clearance.

The starting point is quite rightly what you mention. In 2011, the National Audit Office recommended that more of the Swedish state's IT was outsourced to save money. A recommendation that the Reinfeldt goverment obviously agreed with, and which several government department and agencies then started to pursue. In 2015, i.e. after the change of goverment, the Transport Agency as a part of this plan decide to pursue the outsourcing of the vehicle register (including many military vehicles) and the driver's license register. However, the Transport Agency's chief executive Maria Ågren was frustated by the process being hampered by different laws and regulations regarding IT security and the handling of personal information, so she decided that the agency should stop following these laws to make the process run smoother! This meant that IBM technicians in Czechia and Serbia without security clearance had access to confidential information. The Swedish security police found out about this and pushed to stop the process, at first without success. Both the Defence Minister Peter Hultqvist and Minister of Home Affairs Anders Ygeman were informed about this in early 2016. The same was officials in the Transport Ministry, although the Minister Anna Johannsson claims she only got the information herself much later. The Agency' executive Ågren was fired in January 2017, and when media found out why she was fired, the ball started to roll. At no point was parliament informed about the security breach nor the fact that a agency executive willingly broke the law, which is why the Alliance and Sweden Democrats have declared no confidence in the three ministers.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

A question re: confidence motions: if the Riksdag expresses a lack of confidence in a specific minister would that in turn compel the entire Government to resign/call a snap election? Those are rather murky waters with the Westminster system, so I am wondering if it is more clear cut in Sweden.

In theory, if an individual minister loses a vote of no confidence, only they have to resign. If the Prime Minister loses a Vote of No Confidence, the entire government needs to resign.

In practice though the entire government would resign if an individual minister lost, which is why it has never been tried out in practice, because most minister's up and quit as soon as there is a realistic threat of a Vote of No Confidence to save the rest of the government.

[Barnes]

That's what I had assumed, whether or not they would be specifically compelled to resign en mass, they would prefer it as the entire process becomes pretty unworkable when the Riksdag starts picking off certain ministers and the rump ministry tries to trundle along.

[Mike88]

So this scandal is about a private company that was managing Sweden's security data but it was revealed that the deal was terribly bad made, thus threatening the data of the swedish government and swedish citizens, right?

A bit more complex. The crime is that an agency executive decided not to follow the country's laws. The political issues are that the ministers are accused of acting too late against this and that they did not inform Parliament's Committee of these wrongdoings and the fact that confidential information was available to foreignerns without security clearance.

The starting point is quite rightly what you mention. In 2011, the National Audit Office recommended that more of the Swedish state's IT was outsourced to save money. A recommendation that the Reinfeldt goverment obviously agreed with, and which several government department and agencies then started to pursue. In 2015, i.e. after the change of goverment, the Transport Agency as a part of this plan decide to pursue the outsourcing of the vehicle register (including many military vehicles) and the driver's license register. However, the Transport Agency's chief executive Maria Ågren was frustated by the process being hampered by different laws and regulations regarding IT security and the handling of personal information, so she decided that the agency should stop following these laws to make the process run smoother! This meant that IBM technicians in Czechia and Serbia without security clearance had access to confidential information. The Swedish security police found out about this and pushed to stop the process, at first without success. Both the Defence Minister Peter Hultqvist and Minister of Home Affairs Anders Ygeman were informed about this in early 2016. The same was officials in the Transport Ministry, although the Minister Anna Johannsson claims she only got the information herself much later. The Agency' executive Ågren was fired in January 2017, and when media found out why she was fired, the ball started to roll. At no point was parliament informed about the security breach nor the fact that a agency executive willingly broke the law, which is why the Alliance and Sweden Democrats have declared no confidence in the three ministers.

Shameful attitude by the government. Why didn't Lofven dismissed these 3 ministers? That is quite puzzling... Nonetheless, and contrary to other countries, i hope someone is held accountable.

[Diouf]

Shameful attitude by the government. Why didn't Lofven dismissed these 3 ministers? That is quite puzzling... Nonetheless, and contrary to other countries, i hope someone is held accountable.

Well, the expected outcome was that the opposition parties would have forced Transport Minister Anna Johannsson to resign; a sacrifice Lövfen would probably have made without too many complaints. However, since the Alliance decided to target all involved ministers, the situation is another. The PM would look incredible weak if he just accepted three ministers to be forced to leave their positions, especially in key areas like defence and home affairs.

Lövfen will hold a press conference tomorrow at 10.00

[Tender Branson]

The Swedish IT-scandal is very similar to the Austrian scandal about the glue that didn't stick on the absentee ballots last year:

Like in Sweden, government-related stuff (in this case, the printing of postal ballots) was outsourced to a private company.

After the debacle, the printing of postal ballots was re-nationalized again and the ballots are now printed by the state printery again, like decades ago.

[Tender Branson]

Lövfen will hold a press conference tomorrow at 10.00

And ... what did he say ?

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Lövfen will hold a press conference tomorrow at 10.00

And ... what did he say ?

It has been delayed. The press conference is suppose to start in a moment

[The Lord Marbury]

Home Affairs Minister Anders Ygeman and Infrastructure Minister Anna Johansson have left the government, along with Health Minister Gabriel Wikström who's been on sick leave since the beginning of may for depression.

Tomas Eneroth (S), Social Democratic parliamentary group leader becomes the new Minister for Infrastructure
Justice- and Migration Minister Morgan Johansson (S) becomes Minister for Justice and Home Affairs
Social Security Minister Annika Strandhäll (S) who's been acting Health Minister since Wikström went on leave takes over those duties permanently, with her title changed to Minister for Health and Social Affairs.
Helene Fritzon (S) joins the government as the new Minister for Migration.
Anders Ygeman will (likely) be elected as the Social Democrats' new parliamentary group leader.

Peter Hultqvist stays on as Minister for Defence.

[Diouf]

Home Affairs Minister Anders Ygeman and Infrastructure Minister Anna Johansson have left the government, along with Health Minister Gabriel Wikström who's been on sick leave since the beginning of may for depression.

Tomas Eneroth (S), Social Democratic parliamentary group leader becomes the new Minister for Infrastructure
Justice- and Migration Minister Morgan Johansson (S) becomes Minister for Justice and Home Affairs
Social Security Minister Annika Strandhäll (S) who's been acting Health Minister since Wikström went on leave takes over those duties permanently, with her title changed to Minister for Health and Social Affairs.
Helene Fritzon (S) joins the government as the new Minister for Migration.
Anders Ygeman will (likely) be elected as the Social Democrats' new parliamentary group leader.

Peter Hultqvist stays on as Minister for Defence.

So now the question is whether the Alliance will follow through on its no-confidence vote against the Minister for Defence

[The Lord Marbury]

Home Affairs Minister Anders Ygeman and Infrastructure Minister Anna Johansson have left the government, along with Health Minister Gabriel Wikström who's been on sick leave since the beginning of may for depression.

Tomas Eneroth (S), Social Democratic parliamentary group leader becomes the new Minister for Infrastructure
Justice- and Migration Minister Morgan Johansson (S) becomes Minister for Justice and Home Affairs
Social Security Minister Annika Strandhäll (S) who's been acting Health Minister since Wikström went on leave takes over those duties permanently, with her title changed to Minister for Health and Social Affairs.
Helene Fritzon (S) joins the government as the new Minister for Migration.
Anders Ygeman will (likely) be elected as the Social Democrats' new parliamentary group leader.

Peter Hultqvist stays on as Minister for Defence.

So now the question is whether the Alliance will follow through on its no-confidence vote against the Minister for Defence

Pretty much. Even if Hultqvist still loses a no-confidence vote this was probably still one of the best moves Löfven could've made strategically. He gets rid of Johansson who's the minister responsible for the Transport Agency as well as Ygeman who's responsible for Säpo (though he sort of gets moved sideways by becoming parliamentary group leader) while at the same time he keeps Hultqvist which is the minister which the Alliance have by far the weakest case against. It doesn't hurt either that up until now Hultqvist has been well liked or at least respected by the right for the way he has performed as Defence Minister and that defence writers/journalists along with former Moderate Defence Minister Mikael Odenberg are coming to his defence and are calling him the most effective defence minister in recent years. It's gonna be a lot more difficult for the Alliance to just bring down him, especially as none of the agencies involved in this mess are under purview of him and the Defence Ministry.

Even so my guess is that the Alliance will still follow through with the no-confidence vote, if just because they've already said that they lack confidence in Hultqvist (along with the 2 now previous ministers) and they can't very well change their mind after one day without looking like total buffoons.

[The Lord Marbury]

 Some polls out today which seem to confirm that Löfven made a smart move yesterday and that the Alliance just got too trigger happy by including Hultqvist in the no-confidence vote.

TV4/Sifo poll: Should the Alliance hold a vote of no confidence in Defence Minister Peter Hultqvist?
Yes: 27%
No: 51%
Don't know/unsure: 23%

Aftonbladet/Inizio poll: Stefan Löfven has reshuffled the cabinet and have let Anna Johansson and Anders Ygeman leave the government but kept Peter Hultqvist as Defence Minister. Did he make the right choice or the wrong choice?
Right choice: 55.4%
Wrong choice: 31.5%
Don't know/unsure: 13.1%

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

To nuance the picture somewhat, while a majority of the public doesn't want a Vote of No Confidence against Hultqvist, most people are still very disappointed by the government's handling of the situation:

According to a poll from NOVUS conducted on July 27 found that 60% of voters thought the government had handled the situation badly, while only 30% thought they had handled it in a good way, with 10% unsure.

So this has on the whole probably hurt the government, even if Löfven managed to save some of the fall with his reshuffle. 

[The Lord Marbury]

To nuance the picture somewhat, while a majority of the public doesn't want a Vote of No Confidence against Hultqvist, most people are still very disappointed by the government's handling of the situation:

According to a poll from NOVUS conducted on July 27 found that 60% of voters thought the government had handled the situation badly, while only 30% thought they had handled it in a good way, with 10% unsure.

So this has on the whole probably hurt the government, even if Löfven managed to save some of the fall with his reshuffle.  

Just to clarify, I didn't post the numbers in my previous post to make it look like the government came out unscathed of the situtiation. With the nature of the scandal I thought it was obvious that they have taken quite the hit. Though I hadn't seen the particular polling numbers you posted.

I think some commentator on SR (I think it was either Ramberg or Furtenbach) described it in a good way, with this scandal the Alliance have moved ten steps forward, but with Löfven's move on thursday he managed to push them three steps back.

Though I wonder how the fact that the no confidence vote and security leak will be present in the political discussion for the coming months will influence polling. My best guess is like almost every other big event this term (at least bloc-wise).... not much. Maybe some tiny movement in favour of either bloc but otherwise nothing spectacular happens. If the focus is kept on the scandal itself it'll probably move in the Alliance's favour, if the focus is kept on Peter Hultqvist and his ability to serve as Defence Minister it could move back in the Red-Green's favour. But generally there won't be any big changes.

I also strongly suspect if Hultqvist is forced out in September and Löfven manages to stay in Rosenbad after next year's election, he'll probably return to the cabinet then. I suspect the same for Ygeman. It probably won't be the case for Johansson as she hasn't exactly been a spectacular minister, and she would likely only get brought back if Löfven felt there was some need to placate the Social Democratic district in Gothenburg. But there are other ways to do that.

[parochial boy]

Supposing that the Alliance do push Löfven out (although I suppose that is getting less likely by the day) - would the Moderates still be expected to lead the coalition?

Surely Annie Löof wouldn't be too happy at being a junior coalition partner to a party the Centre are currently polling ahead of? And wouldn't Centre be worried about losing support if they did go into being a junior government partner?

[Lord Halifax]

Supposing that the Alliance do push Löfven out (although I suppose that is getting less likely by the day) - would the Moderates still be expected to lead the coalition?

Surely Annie Löof wouldn't be too happy at being a junior coalition partner to a party the Centre are currently polling ahead of? And wouldn't Centre be worried about losing support if they did go into being a junior government partner?

I haven't seen any polls with C ahead of M.