The Big Bad Swedish Politics & News Thread

[The Lord Marbury]

The government presented its spring supplementary budget today which gives them their first opportunity to implement their own economic policy following the budget crisis during the autumn and the December Agreement. The main points like the improved unemployment benefits and ROT/RUT cuts were of course already known, but here are the main points of the budget. Since the government is unable to raise income taxes with the spring budget the room reforms are of course significantly smaller than it was in the fall.

• Decreased tax subsidies for household renovations (ROT) and household services (RUT)
  -The maximum amount you can deduct with RUT is cut from 50.000 to 25.000 for those under the age of 65. Cooking except for those over 65, pool cleaning, private bartenders and tutoring will no longer be deductible.
  -The maximum percentage of the cost of renovations you can deduct with ROT is cut from 50% to 30%.
• Investments in more personnel in elderly care.
  -1 billion this year
  -2 billion in 2016
• Investments i rail maintenance
  -620 million this year.
  -1.24 billion in 2016.
• Free medicine for all children under the age of 18.
• Business policies.
  -225 million this year.
  -315 million in 2016.
• Improvements in the unemployment insurance
  -The cap for receiving 80% of ones wage during the first 100 days of unemployment is raised from a wage of 18.700 SEK/month to 25.025 SEK/month.
• Increased child support from 1 273 SEK/month to 1 573 SEK/month.
• Increased taxes on petrol, diesel and ethanol.
  -0.55 SEK/litre increase on petrol.
  -0.60 SEK/litre increase on diesel.
  -1.18 SEK/litre increase on ethanol. The increase on ethanol was done only in order to comply with EU regulations and was not part of the government’s budget originally.
• 6.500 new places in higher education and adult education/training this year. 650 million
• Abolished payroll tax discount for hiring those under 25
  -5.5 billion this year
  -16 billion in 2016.
• Investments in conservation. 460 million this year.
• Investments in maternity care
  -200 million this year.
  -400 million in 2016.
• Increased housing benefit for pensioners by 100 SEK/month.
• Benefits for the purchase of eyeglasses for all children in the ages 8-19.
• Support for local climate investments.
  -125 million in 2015, thereafter 600 million per year.

[The Lord Marbury]

A crossparty agreement on defense funding between the government and the Moderate, Centre and Christian Democrat parties was announced today, which entails an additional 10.2 billion going to the armed forces in the next five years. This however falls quite a bit behind the armed forces' own request for additional funding of about 20 billion in order to meet the obligations set by the crossparty defence commission. The government also apoint a commission to investigate international cooperation, which falls short of the Alliance parties' demands of a commission to investigate NATO membership since the commission won't look at Swedish neutrality policy.

The Liberal People's Party is staying out of the agreement as they demanded an increase of about 17 billion and Jan Björklund seems to be making a shift away from the education issues towards defence in his bid to keep the party leadership. The Liberals staying out of the deal also signifies the first true split in Alliance since before the 2006 election. It's also interesting to note that during their first time ever in government the traditionally pacifist Green Party's MPs will actually vote to increase defence funding.

[The Lord Marbury]

Though SD is certainly growing at the moment, no doubt about that, those numbers should be taken with a significant pinch of salt as Nyheter idag is not a serious news site. It was actually founded by Sweden Democrat MP Kent Ekeroth and is run by people associated with other far-right online publications/blogs like Avpixlat.

Sentio, who only base their polls on web panels, are also known for constantly showing the Sweden Democrats with significantly higher numbers than other polling companies (the same with YouGov). While they're definitely bigger now, I doubt they're at these kinds of numbers. Other polls generally have them at around 17% or so.

[The Lord Marbury]

Sentio, who only base their polls on web panels, are also known for constantly showing the Sweden Democrats with significantly higher numbers than other polling companies

Other polling companies has constantly underestimated SD, so I wouldn't trust other polling companies.

That is certainly true, though I don't think they're underestimating SD to the degree show here.

Sentio, who only base their polls on web panels, are also known for constantly showing the Sweden Democrats with significantly higher numbers than other polling companies (the same with YouGov). While they're definitely bigger now, I doubt they're at these kinds of numbers. Other polls generally have them at around 17% or so.

Well, before the election the other pollsters had SD around 8-11 percent. Sentio's last poll before the election had them at 12.7%, which was pretty much what they got in the election (12.9%).

Yep that is correct, though I'm not sure if it's Sentio discovering trends not seen by other companies or more like they got it right by a fluke and a last month surge brought SD up to numbers similar to what Sentio had shown SD at for nearly six months at that point.

[The Lord Marbury]

Has the Swedish pollsters said anything about why they under pollled SD?

Here Gallup has just said they failed to include certain parameters and as the reason why they under polled DPP, but kept quiet as to what those "parameters" may be. Are Swedish pollsters equally wussy?

I remember some pollster talking about their failure to take into account that some people would be hesitant to say that they supported SD, somewhat similar to the "Shy Tory Factor" talked about in the UK 1992 (and to some extent 2015) elections. Other than that I can't think of anything at the moment.

[The Lord Marbury]

Describing the Social Democrats as divided on NATO is ridiculous, imo. It's a fringe opinion and the wing that opposes NATO membership would all die of suicides and heart attacks if they changed the policy on it. Sweden Democrats are much more likely to become pro-NATO imo.

^Pretty much this. There is not much of a divide over NATO in the Social Democrats at all, what you have is a wing which is vehemently opposed to joining and another wing which is still opposed but more pragmatic and could reluctantly move towards membership if it for some reason became a political necessity.

In other news, a recent DN/Ipsos poll shows a major increase in the number of people who think we should take in more refugees than we already do compared to a poll taken in february.

Do you think that Sweden should take in more or less refugees than we do today?
Significantly more: 23% (+14)
Somewhat more: 21% (+4)
Neither more nor less: 20% (-13)
Don't know: 6% (+1)
Somewhat less: 14% (-2)
Significantly less: 16% (-4)

Are you concerned about....

...an increased number of refugees?
Yes: 39% (+9)
No: 57% (-11)

...xenophobia?
Yes: 71%
No: 27%

[The Lord Marbury]

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http://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=2054&artikel=6268163

Well well, this has all taken a very interesting turn. Things certainly aren't puppies and roses in the Sweden Democrats right now, I do wonder how much worse the situation is going to get.

[The Lord Marbury]

The chance of there being a new election within the near future seems pretty slim at the moment so its hard to see how much this decision changes things. The Red-Green government will still get through its budget, and probably next year's too if the Alliance parties sticks to their plan of not presenting a common budget until the autumn of 2017 (what happens then is still a mystery though). I really have difficulty in fathoming the shortsighted thinking of the Christian Democrats (and the rest of the Alliance) with this since right now it seems quite unlikely that the Alliance will be larger than the Social Democrats and Sweden Democrats put together after the next election, which means that SD would only need to vote for the S budget to defeat an Alliance government budget. Basically the Alliance have just flushed their only chance at implementing economic policies without serious concessions to either the Social Democrats or Sweden Democrats down the toilet.

[The Lord Marbury]

But the Alliance in its current state would likely never ever seek support from the Sweden Democrats for its budgets, because that would lead to the break up of the Alliance. The Centre Party, as well as the Liberals and parts of the Moderates are just as opposed to the Sweden Democrats as the Social Democrats are. The Sweden Democrats are only interested in getting through their immigration policies, the rest doesn't really matter, and the Centre Party in particular would probably be more likely to work with the Social Democrats than SD, and that's saying something considering the current hate-on they seem to have towards Löfven & the gang.

[The Lord Marbury]

.... and there's much talk about Sweden implementing a 6-hour workday, which could also be seen as "progressive reform".

That talk about Sweden implementing a 6-hour workday has really been blown totally out of proportion. Of course I would personally be very supportive of such a thing, but what's happened here is really only that a few (mostly minor, aside from Toyota) private companies have moved towards a 6-hour workday and some Red-Green municipalities are also doing so on trial basis in elderly care. We are incredibly far away from ever implementing a 6-hour workday in terms of national legislation or even industry-wide collective agreements.

But the Alliance in its current state would likely never ever seek support from the Sweden Democrats for its budgets, because that would lead to the break up of the Alliance. The Centre Party, as well as the Liberals and parts of the Moderates are just as opposed to the Sweden Democrats as the Social Democrats are. The Sweden Democrats are only interested in getting through their immigration policies, the rest doesn't really matter, and the Centre Party in particular would probably be more likely to work with the Social Democrats than SD, and that's saying something considering the current hate-on they seem to have Löfven & the gang.

I wasn't thinking of actively seeking support, but if some of the toughening of policies suggested by some of the Alliance parties are included, then it's hardly impossible that the SD would decide to support such a budget. Maybe a return somewhat to the situation before the last election.
With the current opinion polls, it would even work with a much smaller Alliance if the Centre Party (and the Liberals) don't want to join such an exercise. Moderates + SD only lack 3 seats from a majority in the latest Sentio poll. And if the Christian Democrats get a bounce and get above the threshold, their support will probably be enough.

However most of those policies have to do with integration, and since SD are only talking about limiting immigration and don't actually have any integration policies themselves, I honestly don't see that happening.
In the case of either C or FP or both leaving the Alliance should such a situation arise, I'd expect that the "centrist" parties would see significant growth. Especially the Centre Party considering that they don't seem totally directionless at the moment (though there is such a thing as overconfidence which they need to be aware of). Remember that the reason M were so successful in the past 8-10 years is because the moved to the centre, being reliant on SD would shatter that image.

Could the Centre Party realign to the left like in Norway?

Seems unlikley since the Centre Party has become increasingly libertarian-ish in recent years and they seem to continue in that direction. If any Alliance party should switch sides (which I don't see happening within the near future), the Liberals would be the best bet.

[The Lord Marbury]

Swedish Leftist politicians apparently attended an anti-semitic rally in Malmö:

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http://www.thelocal.se/20151020/swedish-slaughter-the-jews-rally-grabs-criticism

Not surprising, still disappointing. The Swedish left has much more in common with the nazis they despise than the Sweden Democrats, imo.

...This must litterally be the most stupid sentence I've read in the past year. To slander the Swedish left because a few anti-semitic assholes were present at a pro-Palestinian rally is just moronic. I had some (Social Democratic) friends present at the rally who also talked to me about how furious they were that those anti-semitic douchebags tried to take over the event. It's no different from when a small portion of Communists showed up last year in my city when we were rallying against the then Alliance governement's planned cuts to student benefits and they were yelling "hang the bourgeois". The mainstream left bears zero responsibility for some iditios hijacking their campaigns when they're tackling an important and just issue.

[The Lord Marbury]

^The police have now confirmed that the school killings were a racially motivated hate crime where the killer selected his victims based on their ethnicity.

----

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http://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=2054&artikel=6285752

In addition to what's mentioned in the article, with Migration Board doubling their projection for the amount of refugees expected to come this year, Sweden will also request to join the same EU quota system currently designed to relocate refugees from Italy and Greece to other nations in the Union.

[The Lord Marbury]

@People making a big deal out of Wallström happening to wear a necklace that she's worn in several interviews and official pictures for at least a year judging from a quick Google search:

[The Lord Marbury]

http://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=2054&artikel=6304287

So it's official, the Liberal People's Party, commonly called just the People's Party in Swedish (Folkpartiet) is changing its name to the Liberals (Liberalerna) at their party conference this weekend. Jan Björklund said that this is part of the "largest political renewal process in the party's history", although apparently that renewal process doesn't include getting a new leader.

[The Lord Marbury]

^The man referred to in the post above was arrested by the security service earlier this evening, BTW.

[The Lord Marbury]

Stefan Löfven has presented a cabinet reshuffle today so here's the main points.

People who are leaving the government:
Minister for Climate and the Environment Åsa Romson (MP)
Minister for Housing and Urban Development Mehmet Kaplan (MP) [already gone]
Minister for Strategic Development and Nordic Cooperation Kristina Persson (S)

Current ministers who get new or changed responsibilities:
-Minister for International Development and Green co-leader Isabella Lövin (MP) now has the title Minister for International Development and Climate as well as the title Deputy Prime Minister.
-Minister for Energy Ibrahim Baylan (S) is moved from the Environment Ministry to the Prime Minister's Office and now has the title Minister for Policy Coordination and Energy, with added responsibilites for coordinating cross-departemental policy issues.
-Minister for Foreign Affairs Margot Wallström (S) takes over responsibility for the Nordic cooperation issues.

New ministers:
Minister for EU Affairs and Trade Ann Linde (S)
-State Secretary for Home Affairs Minister Anders Ygeman, 2014-2016
-Head of the International Office, Party of European Socialists, 2013-2014
-Secretary for International Issues, Social Democrats, 2000-2013
Minister for Housing and Digital Development Peter Eriksson (MP)
-Member of the European Parliament, 2014-2016
-Chair of the Riksdag's Committee on Constitutional Affairs, 2010-2014
-Co-leader of the Green Party, 2002-2011
Minister for the Environment Karolina Skog (MP)
-Municipal commissioner in Malmö municipality, 2010-2016

[The Lord Marbury]

So after an entire day of bickering and the Centre, Liberal and Christian Democratic parties going out and saying that they will not follow the Moderates' lead and be open to negotiating with the Sweden Democrats in the Riksdag, Anna Kinberg Batra held a press conference basically just saying that the Moderates are sticking by what she said on Thursday. I just don't get how this is in any way supposed to work logistically for them. The only point in negotiating with the Sweden Democrats would be to get a majority for proposals in the Riksdag, but for that they need the rest of the Alliance and they still have no interest in talking with the Sweden Democrats. Are they planning on jumping back and forth, first negotiating with the Sweden Democrats, then negotiating within the Alliance, then with the Sweden Democrats, then with the Alliance, etc?

Or what's more likely is that they don't really have a plan at all and this is just an attempt to turn back the flow of voters to the Sweden Democrats, but in that case I think AKB and the Moderate leadership are gravely underestimating the willingness of SD voters to suddenly jump ship and vote M. After all, now that AKB is legitimising the Sweden Democrats by being willing to negotiate with them M/SD swing voters might as well decide to stick with SD, confident that they will get a rightwing government either way but with a stronger SD to drag it even further to the right.

The divide between the Alliance parties seems to be growing bigger by the day, and unless there's some spectacular landslide victory I doubt that the Alliance will make it past 2018. Even now it's on life support, since a government alternative with no united position on how to act in the very likely case of another hung parliament situation like 2014 isn't much of an alternative at all.

I also doubt that this mess will do much good for the Moderates in the polls, and considering how they've acted in the past week, I wonder what'll happen if the polls drop even further and they get even more desperate.

Some polls:

SIFO: Who would you vote for if there was an election today? (9-19 January)
Left: 8.0% (-0.4)
Social Democrat: 29.7% (+2.1)
Green: 4.3% (-0.9)

Liberal: 5.3% (-0.7)
Centre: 9.3% (+0.2)
Moderate: 21.9% (-0.3)
Christian Democrat: 2.6% (-1.0)

Sweden Democrat: 16.0% (+0.8]

Other: 2.9% (+0.3)

Red-Green total: 42.0% (+0.8]
"Alliance" total: 39.1% (-1.8]

SIFO: Party leader approvals (12-15 December)
Annie Lööf (Centre): 45% (+5)
Stefan Löfven (Social Democrat): 43% (+8)
Anna Kinberg Batra (Moderate): 40% (-5)
Jan Björklund (Liberal): 34% (+2)
Jonas Sjöstedt (Left): 31% (-)
Gustaf Fridolin (Green): 26% (+1)
Isabella Lövin (Green): 21% (+3)
Jimmie Åkesson (Sweden Democrat): 20% (-)
Ebba Busch Thor (Christian Democrat): 18% (-1)

[The Lord Marbury]

Depends on who you ask. All "Alliance" parties have pledged to vote against (and trigger government formation talks with the Speaker) Stefan Löfven if he tries to stay on after the next election even if the left wins a plurality, and the Moderates and Christian Democrats wants to form an Alliance government even if the Red-Greens are larger than the Alliance. Although the Christian Democrats don't want to negotiate with the Sweden Democrats and simply trust that they won't have the guts to bring down an Alliance government, while the Moderates are now open to negotiating with them in the Riksdag, but apparently not about important things like the budget and are instead mumbling something about transportation policy.

The Liberals on the other hand have ruled out forming an Alliance government if the Red-Greens are larger, as has the Centre Party, since such a government would be reliant on Sweden Democrat support every time the Red-Greens vote as one bloc. The Liberals have said that they would prefer dealing with the Social Democrats in that case, with the caveat that they also want the Alliance as a whole to enter talks with the Social Democrats. The Centre Party hasn't really made a choice yet and are sticking by the Alliance with no clear alternative, however the party and Annie Lööf has invested far too much political capital in their opposition to the Sweden Democrats to be able to change their mind after the election and enter a government dependent on the Sweden Democrats and/or negotiate with them. At least not without facing massive talks of betrayal likely far worse than what Nick Clegg and the Lib Dems faced after entering the coalition in 2010.

[The Lord Marbury]

So after an entire day of bickering and the Centre, Liberal and Christian Democratic parties going out and saying that they will not follow the Moderates' lead and be open to negotiating with the Sweden Democrats in the Riksdag, Anna Kinberg Batra held a press conference basically just saying that the Moderates are sticking by what she said on Thursday.

I though KD was to the right of the Moderates, and closer to SD on immigration?

Eh, it's not really that simple. Of course the party is to the right of the Moderates on a lot of social issues, but historically the party has been quite positive to things like development aid and accepting refugees as a result of its core voters coming from various free church denominations who like those things as well. However after the terrible result they got in the last election they moved to the right on immigration and law & order and moved away from their classic focus on health care and elderly care in order to attract conservative voters who were dissatisfied with the Moderates but weren't comfortable with SD. Unfortunately for them the Moderates also soon realized that there were a lot of voters there and moved to the right as well and whatever gap had existed between SD and the Moderates was soon squeezed shut and KD had no new voters to gain there. So now M is actually to the right of KD on immigration, since KD still retains some of those classic christian democratic positions like making family reunification easier.

The failed rightward shift is also one of the reasons they're doing so badly now, aside from losing a popular leader, because in an attempt go for the tough on immigrants, law & order and defence crowd the old core voters grew disillusioned as the focus shifted away from soft issues like health care and families. The party now seems to attempt to somewhat pivot back towards their classic issues, but the whole back and forth just makes the party seem confused and its plain jarring to see Ebba Busch Thor go from talking about families and the elderly one day and chemical castration of rapists the other day.

[The Lord Marbury]

The graveyard.

Joking aside, if they stay within the Alliance (which they'd likely do) the Centre Party would seem like the best fit since M & L are too focused on hardline issues like law & order and defence and it also has a strong rural base like KD. The Centre Party is actually the second largest party among voters who are regular churchgoers (although their voters tend to be in the Church of Sweden rather than a free church), probably as a result of their strong rural support. But there's of course also a big possibility that disillusioned KD voters would just stay on the couch instead.

[The Lord Marbury]

New polls are out.

Between the blocs there pretty much remains a tie, while within the Alliance it's perfectly clear that the Moderate's new strategy of cozying up to SD has been a massive success... for the Centre Party.

Expressen/Demoskop:
Left: 9.0% (+0.9)
Social Democrat: 26.9% (+0.2)
Green: 4.7% (-)

Liberal: 5.8% (+1.1)
Centre: 11.1% (+1.7)
Moderate: 18.5% (-5.8 )
Christian Democrat: 3.6% (+1.0)

Sweden Democrat: 17.1% (+1.3)

Feminist Initiative: 2.1% (-)
Others: 0.8% (-0.4)

Red-Green total: 40.6% (+1.1)
Alliance total: 39.0% (-2.0)

SvD/SIFO:
Left: 7.4% (-0.6)
Social Democrat: 27.3% (-2.4)
Green: 4.6% (+0.3)

Liberal: 5.9% (+0.6)
Centre: 11.6% (+2.3)
Moderate: 19.8% (-2.1)
Christian Democrat: 3.9% (+1.3)

Sweden Democrat: 16.5% (+0.5)

Others: 3.1% (+0.2)

Red-Green total: 39.3% (-2.7)
Alliance total: 41.2% (+2.1)

[The Lord Marbury]

Stefan Löfven, now towards the end of his weeklong mini-tour of Sweden has announced that he will skip this years' Almedalen political week in favour of travelling around the country and discussing politics with regular people. Finance Minister Magdalena Andersson will replace him in Almedalen.

The person in his staff who came up with this should be given a raise. In PR terms it could be a fantastic move to skip that weeklong festival of politicians, business elites, journalists and rosé in order to meet with regular voters. And since he's planning on actually travelling around Sweden he won't make the mistake Bo Lundgren made and go to Almedalen either way and just hang around on the beach or in his hotel room instead of speaking.

[The Lord Marbury]

Today's Expressen/Demoskop poll:
(link in Swedish: http://www.expressen.se/nyheter/demoskop-nu-ar-sd-storre-an-moderaterna/)

Left: 7.9% (-1.1)
Social Democrat: 27.8% (+0.9)
Green: 5.7% (+1.0)

Liberal: 5.1% (-0.7)
Centre: 12.1% (+1.0)
Moderate: 16.6% (-1.9)
Christian Democrat: 3.0% (-0.6)

Sweden Democrat: 18.2% (+0.7)

Feminist Initiative: 2.0% (-0.1)
Others: 1.6% (+0.8 )

Alliance: 36.8% (-2.2)
Red-Greens: 41.4% (+0.8 )

Well then... good job, Anna.

[The Lord Marbury]

People angry at the moderates for opening up to SD, it would seem.

The rise of the party actually started long before the Moderates' flirt with SD. That just accelerated the trend. Centre leader Annie Lööf has had very good approval numbers since the 2014 election (yes, the same Annie Lööf that used to be as popular as the plague).

The party has done a good job reconnecting with its rural base, talking a lot about the division between cities and rural areas, attacking the government for not doing enough for rural areas while at the same time cooperating with them to implement some good policies such a moving government jobs from Stockholm to smaller towns and cities.

At the same time the party finally seems to be making inroads in the cities (especially Stockholm) thanks to its immigration and economic policies. They have gained from liberal-minded Greens and centrists Moderates who're both disappointed with their old parties.

I'd reckon the numbers also has a fair bit to do with voters who generally dislike both the Conservative right in M/SD and our incompetent Red-Green government. Similarly to how the LibDems used to win folks who hated both Tories and Labour simply by being neither.

And the Liberals aren't seen as a credible alternative by these folks?

No, because the Liberals are too confused about what kind of party they want to be at the moment. They take tough positions on defence and law and order, even to the right of the Moderates which doesn't appeal to the people who are going to the Centre right now, while at the same time they make deals with the government on gender equality issues, such as earmarking a further month in parnetal leave for fathers. Also, they attempt to hold on to their old core issue of education with some limited success. Honestly I think the big problem in all of this is Jan Björklund. Don't get me wrong, I think Jan Björklund was born to be an opposition politician and in other circumstances he would excell, but his baggage from the previous government is just too much to overcome. The best thing for the Liberals would be if he had resigned after the last election to give them a chance at a fresh start but now they're stuck, and replacing him one year before the election would just reek of desperation.

Moderates at their lowest level ever in Sentio poll - 11% lower than Sweden Democrats.
Sentio is among the half of pollsters that show Sweden Democrats high, and were closer to their actual level at the latest general election.

Left: 8.9%
Social Democrat: 24.1%
Green: 3.4%

Liberal: 3.9%
Centre: 11.0%
Moderate: 15.2%
Christian Democrat: 2.4%

Sweden Democrat: 26.0%

Feminist Initiative: 3.0%

Alliance: 32.5%
Red-Greens: 36.4%

A few things I would like to note:
1) Sentio is a self-recruited web-panel which doesn't openly disclose the method in which it chooses its participants in the way that other pollsters like Novus, Demoskop, Ipsos, Sifo or SCB does. Such as system can also be easily messed with, as shown in 2014 when a group of students signed up for either YouGov or Sentio's poll (don't remember which), which resulted in the Pirate Party getting 8% while the Feminist Initiative got nearly 20%. The polling company later "corrected" the numbers and published a different result, though without publishing any details of how they "corrected" the result or what had gone wrong the first time.
2) Whether pollsters like Sentio were right about the share of the vote SD were about to get in the last election or just lucky can be disputed. Looking at the last few polls some other pollsters also showed an uptick for SD towards the end which moved in the direction of web panels like Sentio. Though there's not any doubt in the fact that most other pollsters severely underpolled SD ahead of the last election.

Why have the Greens plumetted so badly?

Also, if there were to happen in an election, surely one of the two remaining alliance parties would hold up S?

The Greens have plummeted because they have for the first time ever gone from being in opposition to being in government, and they're also in government with a much larger partner which has blocked several Green manifesto pledges. There was also the whole mess last year with Mehmet Kaplan and Åsa Romson's resignation which brought the party down even further, so they've hit rock bottom and are trying to find their way out. With this crisis they've at least seemed to find out what works best for them, and that's focusing on environmental issues, and they've made a heavy pivot back to that instead focusing of education and other stuff in the past year. We'll just have to wait and see if it works for them. Personally I think they could recover, but they desperately need to repace Gustav Fridolin just like they did Åsa Romson before that could happen, because while he can be somewhat charismatic at times he just drags around too much baggage for them to move beyond this mess.

My personal guess is that if we end up with situation where the Red-Green parties are larger than the Alliance and the Moderates have suffered a heavy defeat, perhaps even down to 3rd place, is that we will end up with some kind of Social Democratic minority government. Probably with passive support from the Centre and/or Liberals which takes the shape of those two parties agreeing not to bring down the government, though there will likely be no deal for active support. At least not as long as M+SD could bring down an S or S+V+MP budget.

[The Lord Marbury]

Like the situation with the Centre Party, any gains by SD seems to be a result of the problems the Moderates are having. Though Sentio seems like an outlier, other polls have SD at around 18-20%.