The Big Bad Swedish Politics & News Thread

[The Lord Marbury]

BTW, if any (swedish speakers) wish to see the debate about the issue that caused me so much annoyance and anger, it's available on this site.
http://abflive.vivius.se/videos/video/1958/

The specific debate starts roughly around 03:57.

[The Lord Marbury]

BTW, if any (swedish speakers) wish to see the debate about the issue that caused me so much annoyance and anger, it's available on this site.
http://abflive.vivius.se/videos/video/1958/

The specific debate starts roughly around 03:57.

Marbury just described 50% of my skepticism towards youth organizations, though I'm contemplating joining one anyways regularly...

For the record, I also had an S+MP+FP government drawn up way back when the media talked about it the most, looking like this (first minister in each paragraph is the head of the ministry):

PM: Stefan Löfven (S)
Deputy PM: Åsa Romson (MP) (shifting out for Fridolin in 2016)

Foreign Affairs: Carin Jämtin (S)
Trade: Urban Ahlin (S)
Foreign Aid: Fredrik Malm (FP)
EU Affairs: Marie Granlund (S)

Finance: Magdalena Andersson (S)
Financial Markets: Fredrik Olovsson (S)
Local Government: Anneli Hulthén (S)

Defence: Peter Hultqvist (S)

Justice: Thomas Bodström (S)
Migration and Asylum Affairs: Maria Ferm (MP)

Education: Maria Arnholm (FP)
Schools: Mikael Damberg (S)
Equality: Birgitta Ohlsson (FP)
Integration: Ardalan Shekarabi (S)

Enterprise: Gustav Fridolin (MP)
Energy: Matilda Ernkrans (S)
Infrastructure: Bodil Ceballos (MP)
Sustainable Development: Emilia Hagberg (MP)

Health and Social Affairs: Erik Ullenhag (FP)
Health Care: Lena Hallengren (S)
Social Security: Morgan Johansson (S)

Rural Affairs: Åsa Westlund (S)

Environment: Åsa Romson (MP)

Culture and Sports: Stefan Holm (S)

Employment: Therese Guovelin (S)

A few oddities in retrospect, admittedly, such as having 26 (!) ministers, but it shows that such a government would have to compromise a lot.

I understand that, and at times I have become frustrated with the direction the party and the youth league takes, at times making me consider to not continue as an active member. Though that's usually when I start to remember why I joined in the first place; a strong respect for the history of labour movement, as well as a sincere belief in the ideals it espouses and that it is possible to fundamentally change the shape of our society. And then I just say "better to stay and fight for what you believe in rather than give up and do nothing". Sounds incredibly cheesy but that's the way it is.

Also, may I ask which youth league you have considered joining?

Looks like a somewhat realistic take of a S+MP+FP coalition, though I think it's a possbility that S would be prefer parting with Justice or Defense in exchange for keeping Health. At least if FP has a more social liberal leadership than today, which I assume they have considering your list. The party leader is either Arnholm or Ullenhag, correct?

[The Lord Marbury]

It's an S+Mp coalition which governs Västerbotten, V is in opposition and campaigned for the Yes side on the referendum.

[The Lord Marbury]

Fredrik Reinfeldt and Stefan Löfven are facing off for the first time ever in a one-on-one debate in tonight's "Aktuellt" on SVT 2. It's been a tradition in Swedish politics that the PM and the leader of the opposition debate from time to time, usually after the opposition has presented its shadow budget, but Reinfeldt broke that tradition after the 2010 election, claiming it's because the Red-Greens fell apart, and there hasn't been a one-on-one debate between him and either Juholt or Löfven since, until tonight that is. He probably realized that refusing to debate with your big opponent wouldn't be the best strategy during the coming campaign, though interestingly he hasn't been willing to wait until the Social Democrats presented their shadow budget, putting him at a slight advantage heading into the whole thing.

Any other Swedes (or others) who plan to watch it?

[The Lord Marbury]

I did as well. It'd be pretty stupid for someone who's been nominated by his party to not vote.

[The Lord Marbury]

Coinciding with the opening of the Riksdag today, Reinfeldt has made a minor reshuffle of his cabinet. International Development minister Gunilla Carlsson, subject to a great deal of internal department criticism for her leadership style, is leaving the government and will be replaced by the current Employment minister Hillevi Engström who in turn will be replaced by MP and employment committee chairman Elisabeth Svantesson. Svantesson has also been the leader of the Riksdag's christian caucus, is a former member of the strict christian organization Livets Ord and has previously worked for the anti-choice organization "Yes to Life".

[The Lord Marbury]

So the party leaders' debate was tonight and IMO, Jonas Sjöstedt was by far the strongest preformer in this debate, coming with the most convincing arguments. Löfven is getting slightly better with each debate but still he's not quite up to snuff. Probably that's as a result of originally coming from a union where the main goal is to reach a consensus, not to highlight differences like in electoral politics. For Reinfeldt I mainly think that his attitude is his biggest problem. He really came off as a bit of an arrogant bully a lot of the times, and that usually doesn't win you a lot of votes out there.

All in all, I'm pretty disappointed of how little coverage was given to the infrastructure needs of less populated areas such as northern Sweden. It's good and well to talk about improving the rail traffic between Stockholm and Gothenburg, but when almost all rail traffic ends in Umeå you have a situation which puts the northern counties at a indisputable disadvantage to the rest of Sweden, and hold us back from growing our economy as well as our population. Gah! Build the goddamn North Bothnia Line already!

[The Lord Marbury]

New approval numbers for the party leaders are out today, and it looks as if Löfven has finally managed to bridge the previously large approval gap between him and Reinfeldt.

Aftonbladet/SIFO:
Fredrik Reinfeldt (Moderate) 56% (-7)
Stefan Löfven (Social Democrat) 55% (+9)
Gustav Fridolin (Green) 49% (+9)
Åsa Romson (Green) 29% (+7)
Jonas Sjöstedt (Left) 29% (+8)
Jan Björklund (Liberal) 28% (-4)
Göran Hägglund (Christian Democrat) 27% (-1)
Annie Lööf (Centre) 19% (+3)
Jimmie Åkesson (Sweden Democrat) 10% (-3)

[The Lord Marbury]

Since the election is actually over now and the election thread is done now, I thought we might as well restart this thread to cover the day-to-day political stuff from now on.

----------------------

The Riksdag held its party leaders debate today and it's also the last debate Fredrik Reinfeldt will participate in. He's actually not done as a party leader until March when his successor will be elected but there's another debate in January so it's a bit unclear who will stand in for him then. The Social Democrats had party group leader Mikael Damberg step in for Löfven in the past 2 years when he wasn't in the Riksdag, but the Moderates' party group leader Anna Kinberg Batra is considered to be one of the strongest contenders for the party leadership so having her take Reinfeldt's place and debate Löfven in January could cause a bit of a stir.

Due to this being his last debate the other party leaders also handed over goodbye gifts to Reinfeldt. The various gifts handed over were:

*Tickets to "Life is a Schlager" by Jonas Gardell, a melodifestivalen/eurovision-centric musical was given to the former PM by his successor Stefan Löfven and the Social Democratic Party. A fitting present considering the ex-PMs enjoyment of musicals and his generally awful taste in music.+

+Exhibit A: The Moderates' official campaign song from this year's election.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q60yS3rmPwU

*A certificate for a sum of money given to aid organization UNHCR was presented by Sweden Democrat leader Jimmie Åkesson. As if to say that "We are totally nice people too, and we give money to charities, and this totally changes the impression people have of us due to our inhumane immigration policies, right?"

*Deputy PM Åsa Romson presented Reinfeldt with a illustraded book about Swedish national parks and a bouqet of flowers. A typical Green Party gift.

*Annie Lööf gave her former boss a new pot for his kitchen and ingredients for a sausage stew.

*Left Party leader Jonas Sjöstedt gave Reinfeldt a copy of the book "The Reinfeldt Effect" which analyzes the success of the 'New Moderates' and the decline of the Social Democrats. It was also written by the Left Party's current party secretary Aron Etzler.

*The probably soon to be replaced Liberal leader Jan Björklund gave him a Nespresso™ coffee machine and a t-shirt which says "Worlds best friend".

*Christian Democrat leader Göran Hägglund gave him a tool belt following some sort of contrived monologue relating to one of the Alliance's slogan in the past election: "Now we build Sweden".

----

Now the government will continue its budget negotiations with the Left Party and they've already cleared the biggest hurdle by reaching an agreement on profits in the welfare sector which satisfied the Left Party and greatly angered the right. A committee will look at the issue for the next two years and the government will then present legislation to limit profits in 2016. The proposal actually goes much further than what the Social Democrats campaigned on in the election, but that was to be expected considering the harsh demands the Left made. If it will pass the Riksdag in a few years when it comes up for a vote is a different issue, as the Alliance will certainly not vote for it judging from what it looks like now, while the Sweden Democrats is a bit of an uncertainty. Though if it's voted down I guess all the leftwing parties can attack the right+Sweden Democrats for voting in favor of companies being able to take out profits from taxpayer funded welfare services in the next election, so that's something I suppose...

[The Lord Marbury]

Former Infrastructure Minister Catharina Elmsäter-Svärd said yesterday that she is not interested in succeeding Fredrik Reinfeldt as leader of the Moderates. Elmsäter-Svärd has been considered to be one of the top candidates for the job, along with fmr. Social Security Minister Ulf Kristersson and party education spokesperson Tomas Tobé but both of them have said no to the party leadership as well. Now Anna Kinberg Batra, party group leader and shadow finance minister following Anders Borg's hasty exit seems to be the only top candidate left who hasn't said no. But of course the Moderate party culture is very much similar to that of the Social Democrats in that it's seen as unproper to actually publically say that you're a candidate for the leadership, so Kinberg Batra hasn't exactly said much of anything about her intentions.

Kinberg Batra is certainly considered the "establishment candidate" and Fredrik Reinfeldt's own chosen successor. She has been party group leader in the Riksdag since 2010 and chair/vice chair in the Riksdag's financial affairs committee but doesn't have any cabinet level experience. She is probably best known among the Swedish public for saying "Stockholmers are smarter than hicks" as a joke during the 1998 election. This and her somewhat stiff upper class and uncharismatic style personally makes me think she will have a harder time connecting with the electorate than Elmsäter-Svärd would have. But she may still have to fight her way to the leadership because there are still a great deal of Moderate grassroots out there, especially on the county and municipal level who have been critical of the top-down way Fredrik Reinfeldt has had of running the party and would like to see a change in direction which Anna Kinberg Batra doesn't provide. An unexpected candidate could certainly come out of the woodwork with the support of these forces, or one of the previous no's could turn into a yes as we've seen happen before.

[The Lord Marbury]

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http://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=2054&artikel=5994005

Considering that Åkesson has been such an integral part of the party's success it'll be interesting to see how this situation develops and if Åkesson will be able to return to the job or if he'll eventually have to step down. The party certainly doesn't have anyone remotely able to fill his shoes and a hypotheical departure from Åkesson could lead to a drop in the polls.

But in the immediate future you have the party leader's debate held by SVT following the presentation of the budget and shadow budgets which will be held in about month or so, and I wonder what the Sweden Democrats will do if Åkesson is still out of commission by then. Do they simply not participate in the debate or do they send someone in Åkesson's place, and if so who would that be?

[The Lord Marbury]

Have you caught the Russian sub yet?

Doesn't look like it and my guess is we probably won't catch it either. Sweden's submarine hunting capabilites have been greatly reduced in the past two decades due to the cuts in military spending under both leftwing and rightwing governments, we don't even have any helicopters capable of submarine hunting and won't have until 2018. And even back in the 80s when the Swedish military was in top shape they pretty much always got away so the track record isn't good with this type of thing...

[The Lord Marbury]

How do you feel about joining NATO?  Does this kind of thing push you closer?

Personally I'm against it, I'm fine with the situation we're in now and being in the EU doesn't exactly mean we'd be without assistance in the unlikely case of an attack.

According to polls a majority of Swedes are also against joining NATO and they will likely still be so after this event.

[The Lord Marbury]

http://www.thelocal.se/20141030/sweden-recognizes-state-of-palestine

So there it is, Sweden has now officially recognized the State of Palestine, and not a moment too soon in my opinion. There has of course been a fair bit of criticism from the right, even from the Centre Party which according to it's programme is in favor of such a move. Although the criticism has mostly been about how the government announced that it had the ambition of recognizing Palestine in its policy declaration, prior to meeting with the Foreign Affairs Committee.

The constitution says that any major foreign policy move by the government must be done in consultation with the committee, however if the move is actually unconstitutional is a bit doubtful conidering that the government only announced its ambition to recognize Palestine since the entire policy decleration is just a bunch of ambitions. And some journalists and commentators have pointed out that similar things have happened during the previous government in 2008 when then-Foreign Minister Bildt came out in favor of recognizing Kosovo prior to meeting with the committee. Though I can't remember if the opposition made such a big thing of it back then.

[The Lord Marbury]

It surely would strike as weird timing if Sweden joins the NATO right after having recognized Palestine.

Oh it definitely would. But luckily (IMO) Defense Minister Peter Hultqvist (S) said to the press today that a NATO membership or a committee discussing NATO membership will not be happening.

[The Lord Marbury]

Löfven today demanded that the right-wing take responsibility for the parliamentary situation. But when pressed he could not specify what he actually wanted.

If you're referring to the DN article I thought it was pretty clear, it was the same thing he's said since the election: if the right-wing parties (C&FP in particular) want to lock out the Sweden Democrats from influence they should be willing to talk with the government. But of course things are continuing to look as bleak as ever on that front as those parties seem more interested in only being in the opposition (understandable after what governing did to their vote share) and obstructing things when its politically expedient.

[The Lord Marbury]

Löfven today demanded that the right-wing take responsibility for the parliamentary situation. But when pressed he could not specify what he actually wanted.

If you're referring to the DN article I thought it was pretty clear, it was the same thing he's said since the election: if the right-wing parties (C&FP in particular) want to lock out the Sweden Democrats from influence they should be willing to talk with the government. But of course things are continuing to look as bleak as ever on that front as those parties seem more interested in only being in the opposition (understandable after what governing did to their vote share) and obstructing things when its politically expedient.

Shameful isn't it? It's not as if the Social Democrats would ever obstruct in opposition, especially not when it's politically expedient...

Oh please of course I know the Social Democrats have obstructed things now and then in the previous term, although considering the Alliance government wasn't much interested in negotiating with the opposition then either so what other options were there?

However some of the Alliance's recent tactics just seem downright childish at recent times, such as leaving the pensions group because Green members were present which seems especially inconsistent considering the Moderate representative in the group spoke favourably of the Greens pensions policies in June. But yeah, I suppose it's all just a tactic to try and portray the government as weak and send a signal to Löfven that the smaller centre-right parties aren't in any way interested at talking with him outside the framework of the Alliance. And of course I'm still waiting to hear what the Alliance will do if SD votes for their budget on wednesday. Yes Löfven is the PM, but since he's said he won't govern with the opposition's budget the Alliance has a responsibility to the voters to say how they will act if their proposal actually gets the support of a majority in the Riksdag.

[The Lord Marbury]

And of course I'm still waiting to hear what the Alliance will do if SD votes for their budget on wednesday. Yes Löfven is the PM, but since he's said he won't govern with the opposition's budget the Alliance has a responsibility to the voters to say how they will act if their proposal actually gets the support of a majority in the Riksdag.

It's not the opposition's responsibility to pass the government's budget for it. We don't want your budget, so why should we help you pass it? The Social Democrats didn't abstain in budget votes during the last term, to help political stability. If you want the Alliance to pass your budget for you, you will have to negotiate with us (all four of us) and make a necessary compromise where we also get through large portions of our policies. That is how politics work.     

(It isn't our fault that you could only convince 43,6% of the voters to vote for you.)

If Löfvén does choose to negotiate with all four of us, instead of one party that he hopes he might get into submission, I would presume there could be a compromise proposal. If he instead chooses to resign I would presume we're headed for an early election next year. 

Anyway, this is all hypothetical as the budget proposal will be sent back to committee, and not be put up for a vote, if SD announces that they intend to vote for the counter proposal.

Of course I understand that, but the Alliance representatives has said nothing about negotiations like you do, they've only talked about how Löfven is responsible to pass the budget and haven't even been willing to discuss what will happen if SD brings down the government together with them.

And the sending it back to committee thing is a relatively recent development, the Alliance weren't even willing to discuss the issue before that either.

BTW, if the Alliance parties are going continue not working with other parties outside of their current framework (especially with FP&C continuing supporting Vårdnadsbidraget) while in opposition, why don't the parties just merge already? It obviously doesn't make a difference what party you vote for if FP for example is still going to fight for KD policies no matter the situation.

[The Lord Marbury]

Well let the chaos begin, I guess.

Of course I understand that, but the Alliance representatives has said nothing about negotiations like you do, they've only talked about how Löfven is responsible to pass the budget and haven't even been willing to discuss what will happen if SD brings down the government together with them.

And the sending it back to committee thing is a relatively recent development, the Alliance weren't even willing to discuss the issue before that either.

BTW, if the Alliance parties are going continue not working with other parties outside of their current framework (especially with FP&C continuing supporting Vårdnadsbidraget) while in opposition, why don't the parties just merge already? It obviously doesn't make a difference what party you vote for if FP for example is still going to fight for KD policies no matter the situation.

The Alliance has not discussed what they will do in the hypothetical scenario of their budget passing for very good and very obvious reasons. First, it is a very hypothetical scenario. SD likes to make noises to get attention, but during their four years in parliament they've never been willing to pull the trigger when it really came down to it. Secondly, if they do pull the trigger, it is the government that must act first, and as far as I know the government hasn't really announced what they'll do either. The only thing your side has said is that they will not govern on the oppositions budget (which is like saying the sky is blue) and now that they intend to send the budget back to committee. Which, as you yourself acknowledge is a very recent development. Until we know how you will react, we can't plan how we will react.

As for negotiations, that is my own theory based on small bits of info that I'm hearing from my parliamentary inside sources, that if SD does announce their intention to vote for us we will be willing to negotiate a deal, but you'll have to negotiate with all of us, not just one of your choosing, and you will have to make some major concessions and not just give us some symbolic crumbles. If the government is unwilling to do that, all bets are off.


I do believe you're a bit hyberbolic now. Lööf, Björklund, and Hägglund have all said that they will support individual legislation presented by the government if it aligns with their party's position. Björklund even specifically mentioned the third daddy month as such an issue. As for the particular case of Vårdnadsbidraget, that is a subsidy and thus part of the budget, and as the four parties have agreed to file a budget together based on the deals that were negotiated before the election, we will have to defend it as part of the budget package.

And even if the parties actually had the intention to only work as a united group in parliament for the coming four years, political parties are more than just the parliamentary party. As you know all four of the Alliance parties are involved in different sorts of coalitions and cooperation on the regional and local level, not to mention the European Parliament. So the idea that they are now so interchangeable that we should merge is of course a simplistic opinion.       

Stefan Löfven has repeatedly said that he will not administer an Alliance budget and that he will either seek to negotiate with Alliance parties and if that proves fruitless he will resign. He said as much in an interview about 1-2 weeks ago.

There's a difference between defending it as part of your joint budget package and actively working to remove if from the government's budget while in committee.
http://www.expressen.se/nyheter/lofven-blir-overkord-om-vardnadsbidraget/

Well then they might as well run on a joint list for national elections, and frankly I find them largely interchangeable on the national level. Just by judging the vårdnadsbidraget example there doesn't seem to be an interest from the parties in supporting government legislation when it impacts a core issue of other Alliance parties. The feminism part of FPs election slogan apparently doesn't seem to matter too much when it means a prestige loss for KD, for example.

And of course there will be concessions from the government in negotiations with the Alliance, just like there will need to be concessions from the Alliance because S & MP can't be expected to give up too many of their election promises and continue to govern with centre-right policies. Otherwise I guess we'll either have to see a new Alliance minority again despite their massive losses in the past election since they have the support of SD and the government doesn't, or we'll just have new election. None of the parties beside SD definitely don't want a new election, M definitely doesn't right now, but if Löfven finds the Alliance's demands too unreasonable he may not see a better way out.

[The Lord Marbury]

Stefan Löfven called to a meeting tonight between the government and the leaders of the centre-right opposition parties, however they have left the budget saying that they will vote for the alliance budget and that they are not willing to negotiate with the government.

[The Lord Marbury]

Christian Democrat leader Göran Hägglund announced today that he would step down as party leader at an extra congress to be held in the spring. Somewhat expected, although his departure has pretty much been speculated on at various times through the past five years or so. It did however take some attention away from the Liberals' Jan Björklund who has really been exposed to the majority of the resignation speculations in the past two weeks or so. 

[The Lord Marbury]

Hmm... judging from that second picture Busch seems to have a bit of the same 'crazy eyes' issues as the Moderates' party secretary Tomas Tobé.

But yeah with her as leader the Christian Democrats would definitely strongly continue down the 'SD-light' path the party has taken recently. Although since Hägglund came third in district nominations back in 2004 but still became leader Forssmed could have a bigger chance than you'd think after purely looking at the numbers, since he seems to be the favored candidate of Göran Hägglund and the current leadership.

Big news today also as Finance Minister Magdalena Andersson came out and said that the government would be looking to abolish the current 1% budget surplus goal and replace it with a simple balanced budget goal.

This came not a second too late in my opinion since as many economists, Confed. of Swedish Enterprise, all major trade unions, etc. have said, the surplus goal is really no longer needed when we have a relatively low national debt of 30-40% compared to the 80% we had in the early 90s. Besides, we haven't run a budget surplus for several years and for the sake of all honesty none of the parties would've ran on billions and billions of austerity cuts and tax hikes in the next election just to reach the 1% surplus goal. Better to set the goal of a balanced budget now instead so we won't have to see lots of empty talk about reaching the 1% surplus in the coming years when in reality there's no true political will to do so.

[The Lord Marbury]

Big news today also as Finance Minister Magdalena Andersson came out and said that the government would be looking to abolish the current 1% budget surplus goal and replace it with a simple balanced budget goal.

This came not a second too late in my opinion since as many economists, Confed. of Swedish Enterprise, all major trade unions, etc. have said, the surplus goal is really no longer needed when we have a relatively low national debt of 30-40% compared to the 80% we had in the early 90s. Besides, we haven't run a budget surplus for several years and for the sake of all honesty none of the parties would've ran on billions and billions of austerity cuts and tax hikes in the next election just to reach the 1% surplus goal. Better to set the goal of a balanced budget now instead so we won't have to see lots of empty talk about reaching the 1% surplus in the coming years when in reality there's no true political will to do so.

What are you talking about!?

Don't you know that the barns are empty, debt is running crazy because of the neoliberal tax cuts, and the economy is in shambles because the Alliance mismanaged the economy for the last eight years!!!

Or did the new government magically fix all those problems in the last few months?
I have to say, despite not being able to pass a budget or any major legislation through parliament, the Social Democrats sure are an effective bunch at fixing things.    

Well the barns are certainly empty in the capacity of the previous government having left a 1% budget deficit behind them and a ≈75 billion gap up to the surplus goal, which no party on any side has any political will to completely abridge, in spite of heavy rhetoric. However if I'm wrong and the Alliance runs on billions and billions of budget cuts in the next election I'll certainly eat my shoes.

[The Lord Marbury]

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http://www.thelocal.se/20150310/sweden-to-discontinue-saudi-arabia-deal

And not a moment too soon. Happy to see that the government didn't buck to the pressure from business leaders who wanted to extend the deal and that Löfven was worn down by the internal criticism from various Social Democrats and the Greens over a possible extension. The Saudi's actions in recent days probably made it even easier to justify the scrapping of the deal to those in the business sector who fought for its continuation.

[The Lord Marbury]

Aftonbladet and Expressen are both reporting that Jimmie Åkesson will announce his return as leader of the Sweden Democrats while appearing on the talkshow Skavlan on Friday, after having been on sick leave for chronic fatigue syndrome since October.

There was also some news last week about him attempting to claim for benefits from the Social Insurance Agency despite still getting roughly 70.000 kr combined by the Riksdag and his party, resulting in the claim being denied. Though that particular bit of news will probably end up forgotten as the media focus on his return to the leadership.