The Big Bad Swedish Politics & News Thread

[The Lord Marbury]

The Centre Party and the Liberals are pulling out of the confidence motion against Defence Minister Peter Hultqvist, while the Christian Democrats are still supporting it. No word from the Moderates yet.

So the big move of showing strength and unity in July by bringing down a few cabinet members have resulted in yet another instance of Alliance parties openly disagreeing with each other. Stefan Löfven really couldn't have hoped for a worse opposition.

[The Lord Marbury]

sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=2054&artikel=6781702

The Red-Green government's final state budget of the term, negotiated with the Left Party, has been released. Finance Minister Magdalena Andersson is currently holding her press conference. The unexpectedly strong growth is really a godsend for the government, they can spend 40 billion on new reforms that'll be appealing to voters ahead of the next election while they'll still be able to run 40 billion SEK budget surplus as well. According to the Finance Minister the national debt is dropping to its lowest level since 1977.

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[The Lord Marbury]

The Moderate nominating committee have proposed that the party elect current economic policy spokesperson Ulf Kristersson as the party's new leader on October 1st, meaning that excluding any extraordinary circumstances like a sudden scandal he will get the job. Not exactly a fresh start, given that he was pretty much the number 2 man during AKB's entire leadership, but he's at least a somewhat better communicator than her so maybe they figure that it will be enough. My guess is that it won't be, but we'll just have to wait and see.

DN/Ipsos have a new poll out showing that the number of people who believe that the next government will be led by the Moderates have dropped by 32 points in the past year. Kristersson certainly has his work cut out for him.

Do you think the next government, after the 2018 election, will be led by....?

The Moderate Party
September 2016: 48%
March 2017: 27%
June 2017: 24%
September 2017: 16%

The Social Democrats
September 2016: 24%
March 2017: 31%
June 2017: 38%
September 2017: 39%

Another party
September 2016: 10%
March 2017: 22%
June 2017: 19%
September 2017: 15%

Unsure/don't know
September 2016: 18%
March 2017: 20%
June 2017: 20%
September 2017: 30%

[The Lord Marbury]

Hanna Wigh, Member of the Riksdag since 2014 announced that she's leaving the Sweden Democrats yesterday and will remain in parliament as an independent, becoming the second Sweden Democrat MP to do so since the last election after Jimmie Åkesson's mother-in-law Margareta Larsson in 2015. Another Sweden Democrat MP, Anna Hagwall, was expelled from the party in 2016 after a string of anti-semitic statements.

Wigh, along with several other now-former members of the Sweden Democrats were the main focus of yesterday's episode of TV4's investigative journalism show Kalla Fakta (Cold Facts). In the episode she talked about how she was sexually harassed by a party colleague and was pressured by leading members of the party to keep quiet. An unnamed MP who was one of the individuals who had urged her to keep quiet also later assaulted her. In her own words: "He had a hand on my throat and pressed me against the wall. Then he put his other free hand inside my trousers and pushed up a finger. Then he told me we should see each other outside of parliament at some point."

She and other former members also talk in the episode about how internal reports of misuse of funds, which later led to a conviction of fraud and a 1 year prison sentence for MP Anders Forsberg, went ignored. And when they went to the police with these reports they were harassed by other party members. Hanna Wigh also used a hidden camera to record a conversation with Party Secretary Richard Jomshof where he criticised her for speaking out in the media in 2016 about mistreatment of women in the party.

Anders Forsberg, while no longer an MP, now works as a consultant for the party.

As usual, Jimmie Åkesson claims to know nothing at all about these incidents.

[The Lord Marbury]

New poll from Sifo.





Looks like the recent scandals, coupled with the leadership change in the Moderates and a shift in political debate and voter priorities which has brought traditional left/right conflicts more to the forefront haven't been good to the Sweden Democrats. This is the lowest support they've had in a Sifo poll since May 2015, and it doesn't seem to be an outlier since two recent polls by Demoskop and Inizio have also recorded a drop for SD.

[The Lord Marbury]

www.scb.se/en/finding-statistics/statistics-by-subject-area/democracy/political-party-preferences/party-preference-survey-psu/pong/statistical-news/party-preference-survey-in-november-2017--election-today/

The SCB poll, the biggest of the year alongside their poll in May, is finally out and it seems to show that the Moderates made the right choice by switching out AKB for Kristersson. Some pretty good news for the Social Democrats as well, although the Greens are still doing horribly and have dropped below the threshold while the Liberals just got their worst showing in an SCB poll since 1999 and the Sweden Democrats are dropping significantly compared to the previous poll in May, with most of their losses going to the Moderates.

()=change since May
[]=change since the last election
<>=margin of error

Left: 7.0% (+0.7) [+1.3] <±0.5>
Social Democrats: 32.6% (+1.5) [+1.6] <±0.9>
Greens: 3.8% (-0.7) [-3.1] <±0.4>

Liberals: 4.2% (-0.8 ) [-1.2] <±0.4>
Centre: 9.5% (-1.8 ) [+3.4] <±0.6>
Moderates: 22.2% (+4.1) [-1.1] <±0.8>
Christian Democrats: 3.1% (-0.1) [-1.5] <±0.3>

Sweden Democrats: 14.8% (-3.6) [+1.9] <±0.7>

Others: 2.6% (+0.4) [-1.5] <±0.4>

Red-Greens: 43.4% (+1.5) [-0.2]
Red-Greens (above threshold): 39.6%
Alliance: 39.2% (+1.4) [-0.4]
Alliance (above threshold): 36.1%

[The Lord Marbury]

The election is now over for sure and Sweden has a government that will (hopefully) last for the roughly three and a half years that remain until the next one, so with the election thread no longer needed I thought I'd revive this thread. Starting with posting the full cabinet list that Löfven announced in today's policy declaration.

Prime Minister's Office
Prime Minister: Stefan Löfven, S
-Leader of the Social Democrats, 2012-
-President of trade union IF Metall, 2006-2012
Minister for EU Affairs: Hans Dahlgren, S*
-State Secretary for Foreign Affairs in the Prime Minister's Office, 2014-2019
-UN Ambassador, 1997-2000
-Foreign policy advisor to Prime Ministers Olof Palme, Ingvar Carlsson and Göran Persson, 1982-1991, 1994-1997

Ministry of Justice
Minister for Justice and Migration: Morgan Johansson, S
-Minister for Justice and Home Affairs, 2017-2019
-Minister for Justice and Migration, 2014-2017
-Minister for Public Health, 2002-2006
Minister for Home Affairs: Mikael Damberg, S
-Minister for Enterprise and Innovations, 2014-2019
-Social Democratic parliamentary group leader, 2012-2014

Ministry of Foreign Affairs
Minister for Foreign Affairs: Margot Wallström, S
-UN Special Envoy on Sexual Violence in Conflict, 2010-2012
-EU-commissioner, 1999-2010
-Minister for Social Affairs, 1996-1998
Minister for International Development: Peter Eriksson, MP
-Minister for Housing and Digitalisation, 2016-2019
-MEP, 2014-2016
-Co-leader of the Greens, 2002-2011
Minister for Trade: Ann Linde, S
-Minister for EU Affairs and Trade, 2016-2019
-State Secretary in the Ministry of Justice, 2014-2016

Ministry of Defence
Minister for Defence: Peter Hultqvist, S
-Member of the Riksdag for Dalarna County, 2006-

Ministry of Social Affairs
Minister for Social Affairs: Lena Hallengren, S
-Minister for Children, the Elderly and Gender Equality, 2018-2019
-Member of the Riksdag for Kalmar County, 2006-
-Minister for Preschools, Adult Education and Youth, 2002-2006
Minister for Social Security: Annika Strandhäll, S
-Minister for Social Affairs, 2017-2018
-Minister for Social Security, 2014-2017
-President of trade union Vision, 2011-2014

Ministry of Finance
Minister for Finance: Magdalena Andersson, S
-Chief Director of the Swedish Tax Agency, 2009-2012
-State Secretary in the Ministry of Finance, 2004-2006
-Director of Planning in the Prime Minister's Office, 1998-2004
Deputy Minister for Finance, Minister for Financial Markets and Housing: Per Bolund, MP
-Member of the Riksdag for Stockholm Municipality, 2011-
Minister for Civil Affairs: Ardalan Shekarabi, S
-Member of the Riksdag for Uppsala County, 2012-

Ministry of Education
Minister for Education: Anna Ekström, S
-Minister for Upper Secondary Schools and Adult Education, 2016-2019
-Director General of the National Agency for Education, 2011-2016
-President of the Swedish Confederation of Professional Associations, 2001-2011
Minister for Higher Education and Research: Matilda Ernkrans, S*
-Chair of the Riksdag's Education Committee, 2018-2019
-Member of the Riksdag for Örebro County, 2002-

Ministry of the Environment
Deputy Prime Minister, Minister for the Environment and Climate Change: Isabella Lövin, MP
-Co-leader of the Green Party, 2016-
-Minister for International Development, 2014-2019
-MEP, 2009-2014

Ministry of Enterprise
Minister for Enterprise: Ibrahim Baylan, S
-Minister for Policy Coordination and Energy, 2016-2019
-Minister for Energy, 2014-2016
-Minister for Schools, 2004-2006
Minister for Rural Affairs: Jennie Nilsson, S*
-Deputy Chair of the Enterprise Committee, 2018-2019
-Chair of the Enterprise Committee, 2014-2018
-Member of the Riksdag for Halland County, 2006-

Ministry of Culture
Minister for Culture and Democracy: Amanda Lind, MP*
-Party Secretary of the Green Party, 2016-2019
-Deputy Mayor of Härnösand Municipality, 2014-2016

Ministry of Employment
Minister for Employment: Ylva Johansson, S
-Minister for Welfare and Elderly Care, 2004-2009
-Minister for Schools, 1994-1998
Minister for Gender Equality: Åsa Lindhagen, MP*
-Deputy Mayor for Social Affairs in Stockholm Municipality, 2014-2018

Ministry of Infrastructure
Minister for Infrastructure: Tomas Eneroth, S
-Social Democratic parliamentary group leader, 2014-2017
-Member of the Riksdag for Kronoberg County, 1994-
Minister for Energy and Digitalisation: Anders Ygeman, S*
-Social Democratic parliamentary group leader, 2017-2019
-Minister for Home Affairs, 2014-2019
-Member of the Riksdag for Stockholm Municipality, 1995-

* = New cabinet member.

Considering that Löfven is 61 and could very well decide to step down as leader before the next election or will certainly do so after winning or losing that election, there are a few interesting names in this list. Magdalena Andersson is as ever the frontrunner if Löfven decides to step down while in the government, she has his trust and support and there are a lot of people who want to see a woman Prime Minister and she looks like the the strongest candidate at the moment. If the party loses the next election it could be a bit more open. Anders Ygeman has been mentioned as a future leader with increasing frequency. He comes from the leftwing faction of the party and got to focus on tough-on-crime issues as Home Minister last term, which brought him prominence but also tainted him somewhat when he was forced to resign after the scandals in the Transport Agency. Now he has a far more anonymous position which could make further advancement more difficult, while the new Home Minister is Mikael Damberg, who like Andersson comes from the party's right.

Damberg was mentioned as a likely successor before 2014 but kind of fell into obscurity while serving as Enterprise Minister. Perhaps he can use the Home Affairs portfolio to gain publicity in the same way as Ygeman did and thus put himself back into contention. Tomas Eneroth, Ylva Johansson, Ardalan Shekarabi and Anna Ekström could be a few of the dark horses in contention. Anna Ekström becoming leader would carry the fun benefit of making it slightly more difficult for the right to attack her, as she was appointed Director General of the Education Agency by a Liberal Minister for Education and was asked to join a rightwing government as Minister for Employment by Fredrik Reinfeldt back in 2006.

[The Lord Marbury]

Ipsos has a poll out from the period when C & L announced their decisions to back Löfven, but the polling period started the day before the deal was released and three days before both C & L had made their final decisions, so there's still going to be some wait for a poll from after Löfvens reelection as PM.

I guess that the most interesting thing about this poll is that the Alliance is no longer being shown as a unified group. 'Tis truly the end of an era.

[The Lord Marbury]

The Liberals's Party Board have announced that their goal in 2022 is to return a centre-right government. If they manage to stay in government, they almost certainly would join an M+KD government, even if it had external support from SD.

If they manage to survive, even narrowly, that would greatly boost the chances of a conservative government. If they narrowly miss the threshold, however, they could take hundreds of thousands of votes and a dozen seats with them, and risk such a government (not unlike FI narrowly missing in 2014 and taking 195,000 votes and 15 seats that could have boosted the centre-left coalition).

The declaration must be confirmed by the party council vote as well.

How did Liberals even get to where they are now? I know this isn't the first time they're trying to shift to the right (there was some anti-immigration stuff in the early 2000s), but they've always been essentially a classical liberal party, right?. Surely it would have made more sense for Centre to do this and for Liberals to be led by someone like Annie Lööf* and transform into sort-of libertarians?

* There's, um, this: youtube.com/watch?v=4F1QdZoqPsI

Eh, the term classical liberal isn't really the most fitting description of the Liberals now or historically. They've mostly been a social liberal party which had strong ties to the temperance movement for most of the 20th century (and were therefore strong defenders of the state monopoly on alcohol sales) and during the 60s and 70s they were definitely the party on the centre-right that was the closest to the left. During the 80s and 90s the most libertarian-ish politicians you could find were usually members of the Moderates (the youth league in particular) and later that became the case in the Centre Party. That was generally a result of then-leader Maud Olofsson actively seeking to move the Centre Party rightwards in order to be seen as a more reliable part of the centre-right after the party's budget deals with the Social Democrats from 95-97. This could be said to be the origin of the libertarian streak you find in the Centre Party today.

The dividing line within the Liberals ever since the 90s hasn't really been between classical liberals and conservative liberals, but between social liberals and conservative liberals. Where the social liberal wing represents the traditional Liberal position of emphasising support for various social programs, gender equality and the social safety net, and the conservative liberals were inspired by the success of Venstre in Denmark and placed emphasis on issues concerning law and order, integration and immigration.

The conservative liberal lean that the party has now can be explained by how key members of the leadership (including Sabuni herself) were closely involved with the previous conservative liberal turn in the early 2000s which saw a spectacular success in the 2002 election. They seem to be under the impression that returning to what worked for them then will be what's going to revive their fortunes once more. Which seems kind of naive since they didn't have three parties to their right competing about which one can be the most anti-immigrant in 2002, so their positioning actually made them stand out from the rest back then, unlike today.

[The Lord Marbury]

I wonder how much C will feel pressured to move somewhat leftward economically by more and more of their voters identifying as left leaning. Or at least pressured to tone down the more overt criticism of the labour movement (see: F*** Facket Forever, most of the things Martin Ådahl says). IIRC, SVT's exit poll from both the Riksdag and European parliament election as well as later polls by SCB showed an increasing number of C voters identifying as leftwing. Of course nowhere near the number of voters who identified as rightwing or centrist, but one can imagine that that number will only grow the longer they're working with S and the more intertwined the idea of a centre-right government becomes with a government dependent on SD. Then again as the Greens have shown, too much trust shouldn't be placed in young-ish middle class women voters living in larger cities. One election could pass and they'll have jumped ship to a different party.

Also, I maintain that C should never enter into a coalition with S until Maud Olofsson has passed away. Only because her body would turn over in her grave so fast at the notion of C sharing Rosenbad with Göran Persson's party that when hooked up to a generator it could be used as a source of renewable energy that would cover 50% of Sweden's electricity demand. As a bonus one could also wait until former Mayor of Umeå Lennart Holmlund passes as his body would cover the remaining 50 percent due to the anger caused by S governing with C.

[The Lord Marbury]

https://www.svd.se/missnoje-pyr-under-loof-jag-kanner-mig-lurad
Funny coincidence with all the talk about the Centre Party in this thread. SvD just published a long piece about the internal discussions within the party. As it is behind a paywall, here's a few choice quotes translated into english:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

At the edge of Vindeln where they transported pine logs downstream in the past her conference centre is located. It is what it is during the pandemic. Pretty empty.

”You know”, she says after a while, ”I was probably the most angered by the timing. Us small business owners are fighting with a government which doesn’t care about us. Life’s works are being crushed. Divorces. Suicides. And right when it’s at its worst she goes out and says that she’ll join a government with a party that is the entire problem. It is such a mockery of everyone who goes to bed at night feeling that they don’t know how to provide for their family.”

She, that’s Annie Lööf.

”When I read that article in Expressen I went into a state of chock for a few days.”

Helena Lundgren, she’s the one who’s pissed off.

”No, I didn’t love the January Agreement, but I’ve defended it. In front of business owners, hunters and land owners. I’ve said what she said: That we wouldbe a thorn in the side of Löfven and that we would bring down the government if it didn’t do what we wanted it to. And then I get to hear in a newspaper that we’ll join a government with the Social Democrats! I feel tricked.”

---------

Her dad was a municipal commissioner in Vindeln before she became one.

”I don’t belong to this new voter base which seems to have grabbed the attention of the entire party leadership. I’m a traditional Centre Party member, I’ve grown up in this party.”

And her grandfather before him.

”Where I live and work, the life I and many along with me want to lead, for us and our lifestyle the Greens are a bigger threat than the Sweden Democrats. I cheered when Maud brought us home to the rightwing.”

Maud Olofsson, the goddess of the Norrland prairie. What does she think when the Centre Party is left alone if the rest of the old Alliance goes somewhere else?

Västerbotten doesn’t surprise.

Here a young Annie Johansson met her harshest resistance in the battle for the leadership in 2011. And now Helena Lundgren and the chapter in Vindeln have nominated the MP Helena Lindahl to fill the vacancy on the party board and executive committee that Fredrick Federley left behind. The Helena Lindahl who was the sole member of the parliamentary group to vote against the January Agreement.

”I got to say what I wanted to say by voting no. I had promised the voters something different. You’ll have to evaluate the agreement afterwards, what came out of it in the end.”

She thinks for a long while over the phone

”I am from Robertsfors -  when I got nominated for the parliamentary list it was Rolf, Maud’s husband, who led the election committee. Here the Social Democrats have been dominant in so many municipalities for so many years that, yes, it’s difficult to see anything positive with Social Democrats. And many fear the Greens.”

------

Several people say that it’s strategically clever to take the centre ground in Swedish politics.
”It is an amazing position. If everyone are forced to choose between S and M there’s actually an alternative: C. We who aren’t a part of any bloc”, an MP says.

It is a true picture of the mood in the party.

The description of everyone being happy and content and that disagreements about strategic choices doesn’t really exist.

Only, with Centre Party members it’s like this: A completely different description can also be true, at the same time. In parallel with the support for the leadership. Take the reactions to the interview in Expressen. Because something really happened.

MPs called the parliamentary group leader. Local politicians texted the party secretary. The districts were contacted by their members. The side organisations as well. There were fights in Facebook threads.

That kind of information can come out if you promise not to reveal the leaker’s identity.

That picture is also true.

--------

Around the country Centre Party members have for the past weeks discussed government formation with their leader at district conferences, while Liberals have discussed it in the papers and at party councils broadcast on live TV.

In Västerbotten, in Maud-land, Lars Weinehall was the chair.

”I have the same views that I’ve always had”, he says, ”but our company have moved to the right”

He is growing older, but from 2001 to 2011 he was an important voice on the executive committee.

”The Christian Democrats is a completely different party today. The Moderates have at least in words transformed into something different from what it was when Maud lead our party. I mourn that. And people trust Annie when she explains herself.”

--------

There are differences in what an exit can look like. For Staffan Danielsson (former MP) ATL was important. Annonsblad till Tidskrift för Lantmän.

The paper farmers have read since 1884.

”My view was and is that the Centre Party should support an Alliance government, even if some support from the Sweden Democrats is required”, he wrote in ATL last Friday.

And with those words he ended his membership.
[...]
He’s sitting at home at the farm in Östergötland and explains over the phone.

”There’s a culture in the party where the leadership is charismatic and knows best and you should think like they do. Now they’ve made an 180 degree turn from wanting a Kristersson government to saying that they can accept a Löfven government. Everyone is on board with that. They do whatever Annie says.”
[...]
”It’s not the same party that I joined in 1970. We’ve been emptied of some rural voters and had a big addition of good-hearted women and young people in the big cities”

He knows that he’s pretty lonely in his view of the Sweden Democrats. Most members agree with the party leader that Jimmie Åkesson’s ideas are so repugnant that nothing can be more important than opposing him.
[...]
Municipal politicians.
 
They can list instances of rudeness they’ve experienced from Moderates - people they until recently thought they were familiar with. There is a sadness over the destroyed relationship with Ulf Kristersson.

These two things strengthen Annie Lööf internally.

But even among those who think that the leadership’s choices are the right ones, there’s a discontent over the process. How this has happened.

”There’s no debate, not about policy or government formation. It’s strange. Especially if you have knowledge of other parties’ internal processes and know how many debates they’re having.”, a municipal politician says.

--------

This spring it’s not only time for the confidence council to meet, it’s time to begin nominations. The competition for seats in the Riksdag can cause rumblings in any party. But in the party that Annie Lööf leads people mostly seem to be on the way out.

Kristina Yngwe, chair of the Committee on Environment and Agriculture. Magnus Ek who have been the leader of the youth league. Fredrik Christensson, spokesperson on education policy. Johanna Jönsson who made a name for herself as spokesperson on migration policy.

All want to leave the Riksdag. They’re young. They’re not leaving under grand protests, first and foremost it seems to be for personal reasons, but they’re leaving.

”They were the ones you saw leading the party forward”, an experienced Centre Party representative says.

It is said than an additional three MPs, at least, won’t run for another term. If that’s true it’s a big turnaround in a parliamentary group with 31 members. Additionally, in the party leadership there’s a vacancy on both deputy leader positions: Fredrick Federley and Anders W Jonsson are out.
One could point out that the majority of the people who are leaving are individuals who have supported the January Agreement, encouraged the path the party leader has chosen.

That’s probably not the important bit. The important bit is the there’s a shift happening within the quiet party.

Annie Lööf’s power base will be replaced with a new one.

---------

”There are three big parties and two of them need to work together in some way. We think that should be the Social Democrats and the Moderates”, a person close to the party leader says.

Annie Lööf did not manage to find much understanding for that idea during the months long government formation process. Instead the Swedes lost trust in her when she didn’t want to pick sides. The idea that Swedish politics shouldn’t be divided in two blocs haven’t become easier to sell since Ulf Kristersson opened the door to the Sweden Democrats and Nyamko Sabuni decided to bolt.
 
In that situation there’s not a lot of choice left for the Centre Party representative who’ve said that it wants to be part of a government. And then the negotiating position weakens. We won’t get as many concessions from Stefan Löfven a second time, several in the party are saying.

Something also seems to have happened in the younger generations. The old Centre Party is a deeply pragmatic party. The strategy document Future Agenda 2030 is a pamphlet for pragmatism, with proud writings about how they’re governing in a large number of municipalities and regions, in several different constellations.

They call it taking responsibility.

But how pragmatic can you be if you’re building your party on principles around who you can’t work with? What happens with the pragmatic Centre soul when Annie Lööf’s fight for values comes first?

When you call around in the party several people - those who are younger and from cities - say that it’s better to go into opposition than to be a part of costly governing coalitions.

Yes, on the surface there’s a state of complete calm in the party. Individual municipal politicians complain, nothing more. But beneath the surface something different is happening, at the same time.

A changing party can change in unexpected ways.

Many of those who joined since Maud Olofsson’s time, the children of the Alliance, carry a sense of loathing - yes, that’s the right word - towards the Social Democrats.

Those who join the party now or when it’s governing with Stefan Löfven will hardly feel the same.

The changing position builds in a conflict within the membership ranks.

One person which could be referred to as member of the ’Stureplan Centre’ expresses it like this:
”The party leadership is doing everything right but it feels so wrong. The members have changed, not least in Stockholm.”

There are more than Helena Lundgren in the forest up in Västerbotten and Staffan Danielsson on the farm in Östergötland who no longer recognise their party.

”It hurts every time I say it”, a big city Centre Party member says, ”but in a situation where I’m forced to choose I’ll say yes to a Social Democratic government. But it sucks.”

Notes:
1) There is no possible way that I could've been surprised by the fact that some of the leading critics of the January Agreement are from Västerbotten. This totally checks out with the degree of disdain I felt from C members I met when I lived in Umeå and was still a member of S. Also, as someone who grew up in Norrland surrounded by plenty of left-leaning people who despised Maud Olofsson, I found it hilarious to see her described as a "goddess of the Norrland prairies". Especially considering that you can't really find much of a prairie anywhere in Norrland.

I wonder how a prolonged S-C partnership on the national level will impact the party in the North. Especially in those places like Vindeln and Robertsfors where C have been the main opposition party to S and pretty much see them as sworn enemies.

Also, "the Greens are a bigger threat than the Sweden Democrats". Strong words, but unsurprising to read. I wouldn't even be surprised to hear a Social Democrat from somewhere in the rural north saying that the Greens and Sweden Democrats are equally distasteful.

2) Those people who are still wondering why C and L haven't just merged to form a single liberal party need only read the sections about how much (or little) transparency there's been in regards to internal debates to understand how different the party cultures are.

3) Is there's actually any C member left who is saddened by Staffan Danielsson leaving the party?

4) Maybe I should feel pity for those C members who are genuinely despairing in this new political landscape where they feel like their only option is supporting an S-led government. But I can't help but to think back to those CUF (and LUF) members I met in Umeå around the time of the 2014 election. Those who were utterly convinced that if any party would break the cordon sanitaire around SD it would be S. Obviously because S completely lacked principles and would do anything for power, unlike the brave and principled defenders of democracy that you could find in the four Alliance parties. I just can't help but to feel a little bit of schadenfreude.

[The Lord Marbury]

I wonder how a prolonged S-C partnership on the national level will impact the party in the North. Especially in those places like Vindeln and Robertsfors where C have been the main opposition party to S and pretty much see them as sworn enemies.

Could M pick up some C defectors in the North? I know there are significant cultural differences, but they still seem like the most obvious alternative.

Yeah I guess they'd be the main benefactors of any future defections there. Not exactly a perfect fit, but considering that L barely exists north of Dalälven (outside of some of the larger cities and towns), M is probably the best alternative.

[The Lord Marbury]

Notes:
1) There is no possible way that I could've been surprised by the fact that some of the leading critics of the January Agreement are from Västerbotten. This totally checks out with the degree of disdain I felt from C members I met when I lived in Umeå and was still a member of S. Also, as someone who grew up in Norrland surrounded by plenty of left-leaning people who despised Maud Olofsson, I found it hilarious to see her described as a "goddess of the Norrland prairies". Especially considering that you can't really find much of a prairie anywhere in Norrland.

I wonder how a prolonged S-C partnership on the national level will impact the party in the North. Especially in those places like Vindeln and Robertsfors where C have been the main opposition party to S and pretty much see them as sworn enemies.

[SNIP]

4) Maybe I should feel pity for those C members who are genuinely despairing in this new political landscape where they feel like their only option is supporting an S-led government. But I can't help but to think back to those CUF (and LUF) members I met in Umeå around the time of the 2014 election. Those who were utterly convinced that if any party would break the cordon sanitaire around SD it would be S. Obviously because S completely lacked principles and would do anything for power, unlike the brave and principled defenders of democracy that you could find in the four Alliance parties. I just can't help but to feel a little bit of schadenfreude.

Actually, why is this the case? Why is Västerbotten's Centre Party so hostile to the SAP? In most other northern regions, don't they usually work together? I know Västerbotten has a peculiar history but I don't understand the region too well.

Eh, not really. There's a few exceptions here and there like Sundsvall where S, C and V have formed the majority together since 2014, but generally S and C in all of the northern regions have been deeply opposed to one another for decades. There are plenty of municipalities in the north where it's not the Moderates who are the main opposition party to the Social Democrats, but the Centre Party. Additionally, there are plenty of municipalities where the Social Democrats have been deeply entrenched in power for nearly a century so pretty much ever single other party on the council is opposed to them. This is how you end up with situations like in Överkalix during the 2014-2018 term, where V, C, M and MP banded together to form a coalition that kicked the Social Democrats out of office.

S and C working together in a few municipalities and regions has become somewhat more common following the emergence of the Sweden Democrats, but it's still seen as unusual.

[The Lord Marbury]

Rumors abound that the senior leadership of the SAP is leaning towards calling an extra election on Monday as their best bet.

While the Red-Greens+Centre in theory have a 175 to 174 majority, there is one rogue Left MP and one rogue Centre MP who are being cryptic about their support for a return of Löfven. There is also one Liberal MP who seems to more or less have quit her job so the situation is very risky for everyone involved if Sweden were to go to Presidential rounds.

SAP leadership supposedly thinks they can campaign on managing the COVID crisis well, the booming economy, successfully pumping the breaks on centre-right proposals while also achieving some of their own goals, etc. while reminding voters that SD could get into power while the Liberals could get the boot. Also, they could put the blame of a snap election during a crisis on the other parties.

Of course, these are unconfirmed rumors. Anecdotally, following up on social media with my Solna SAP friends, they seem to be in a fighting mood about an extra election.

..That sounds like the 2001 Danish elections, which Nyrup called based on the fact that he thought that 9/11 would push the Danes to choose the safe hand on the helm rather than risk a inexperienced PM supported by DPP.

Also do the Swedes agree that Löfven have handled COVID great? I must admit I mostly read Swedish debate forums and they don’t seems to agree on the Swedish handling of it, but I know that Danish internet debate aren’t representative of the Danish public debate or opinion. As for the Swedes I know, they’re not happy either but that’s purely anecdotal.

I wouldn't say that people generally think that the COVID strategy has gone great, but at the same time those who think it's gone terribly are definitely a minority. Most people probably think that there are things which could've been done better but it hasn't been a complete disaster either. But being the incumbent in the time of crisis is probably still beneficial for Löfven, being seen as a safe pair of hands and all that.

Also, the debate forums are definitely not representative of Swedes in general. There's definitely an overrepresentation of SD-supporters, general rightwingers and people who hate the government there. Not sure why, but my guess is that one explanation could be that there are more men than women who are active on forums and since men tend to be more conservative those places will lean to the right. There's probably a bit of a positive feedback loop there too, because speaking for myself as a Swedish leftist, I'm not particularly interested in joining and being active on a forum with a membership that's overwhelmingly rightwing.

[The Lord Marbury]

Stefan Löfven will be stepping down as party leader and Prime Minister at the Social Democratic party congress in November.

Bring on all the speculations about who his successor will be. My money's on Finance Minister Magdalena Andersson.

[The Lord Marbury]

Two polls on who should succeed Löfven, one of all voters and one of those who voted for S in the last election.

Who should succeed Stefan Löfven as leader of the Social Democrats?
(all voters, Aftonbladet/Demoskop, 22-23 August)
Magdalena Andersson: 26%
Mikael Damberg: 15%
Lena Hallengren: 8%
Ardalan Shekarabi: 5%
Anders Ygeman: 4%
Peter Hultqvist: 3%
Ibrahim Baylan: 1%
Someone else: 11%

Who should succeed Stefan Löfven as leader of the Social Democrats?
(S voters, SVT/Novus, 23-24 August)
Magdalena Andersson: 48%
Lena Hallengren: 13%
Mikael Damberg: 8%
Anders Ygeman: 5%

So Andersson is clearly the runaway favourite. Though the question is how much the constant talk in the media in the past few days about she being the clear frontrunner may have influenced those who responded to this poll.

[The Lord Marbury]

Magdalena Andersson has now received the backing of six party districts, including the biggest right-leaning district Stockholm County and the two biggest left-leaning districts, Skåne and the City of Stockholm. As well as the youth league, the chair of the trade union confederation LO, and from five of her fellow cabinet members. Including Anders Ygeman, Mikael Damberg and Ardalan Shekarabi, so pretty much all of her possible challengers.

Clearly the only thing that can stop her from becoming leader now is some kind of major scandal.

[The Lord Marbury]

Is "Civic Alternative" the Moderates?

Yes, they were formed ahead of the 2013 elections when the Moderates decided not to stand in the election. But in practice they are the Moderates, even if they're not formally affiliated.

Same goes for the Left, Liberal, Green and Christian Democratic nomination groups in the Church elections, which are technically all fully independent from the political parties. Even if it would be hard to find a single member of those groups who isn't also a member of their corresponding political party.

[The Lord Marbury]

The Social Democratic nomination committee have officially nominated Finance Minister Magdalena Andersson to be elected as party leader at the party congress in November. A mere formality at this point, all 26 party districts had already nominated her.

If nothing unexpected happens between now and then, she'll become Sweden's first female PM in about a month and a half.

[The Lord Marbury]

https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/magdalena-andersson-elected-as-new-social-democrat-leader

Magdalena Andersson has just been elected as the 11th leader of the Social Democrats at their 41st party congress in Gothenburg. She will be holding her first major speech as party leader tomorrow at 10am CET, but she spoke briefly after her election. She outlined her three main priorities as retaking democratic control over the education, healthcare and eldery care sectors, Sweden leading the fight against climate change, and battling segregation and gang violence.

If everything goes smoothly and Löfvens hands in his resignation to the Speaker on Monday she could be elected as Prime Minister and have her new cabinet in place by Friday next week. Things could take more time if negotiations with V, C and MP prove more difficult.

Currently MP and C seem to have a lot of difficulty in reaching an agreement regarding liberalisation of regulations concerning construction near lakes, rivers, seas, etc., something which C demanded in order to let Löfven form government again earlier this year. There are some rumours that MP may end up leaving the government if they're unable to force C to back down.

[The Lord Marbury]

Is more time being given to form a government a good sign (ie that there is a decent chance this will ultimately happen) or just kicking the can down the road a bit longer?

Well of course it's not as good a sign as putting Andersson before a vote in the Riksdag straight away would've been, but it's still a good sign. If there was no chance she probably would've asked the Speaker to hold a new round of talks with the party leaders.

The general consensus among commentators seems to be that V has been far more tough in negotiations than S had expected, but it will probably be resolved by Monday. As long as V doesn't demand something that will make C pull their support, but with only 10 months or so left until the election, there's little appetite for a prolonged crisis. The Left's main demands seem to be a pension increase for the poorest pensioners and social security improvements. But it's probably first and foremost to be recognised as an equal to the government, like C. Rather than be treated as a party that's expected to passively support the government in every confidence vote without concessions, as they feel they've been treated for the past 3 years.

After being accused of simply laying down and accepting a government without any influence over government policy after the 2018 election, V needs to make a point of getting concessions from S in order to accept Andersson. Especially going in to next year's election, so they can show that voting V will actually have an influence on an S government.

[The Lord Marbury]

White smoke. V, S and MP have now agreed to a pensions increase of up to 1000 SEK/month tax-free for those with the lowest pensions. Therefore V will abstain when Magdalena Andersson is put up for a vote in the Riksdag tomorrow at 9 AM. Dadgostar also said that V will be voting for the government's budget in the final vote tomorrow afternoon.

Unsurprisingly C haven't said anything about the deal yet, it's only been out for about an hour. They're expected to comment tomorrow.

[The Lord Marbury]

Okay because this just keeps getting crazier:

The Greens might ragequit the government if the motion of no confidence in the deputy PM is successful 🤣

The main reason they appear to be consider leaving the government doesn't seem to be the possible vote of no confidence against Bolund - that doesn't stand much chance of passing either way.

However they're considering it because of how furious they are at the Centre Party announcing that they will not vote for the government's budget. When the Greens participated in negotiations over forest policy with the Centre Party this autumn, most of what they got in exchange for making concessions to C was part of the budget. If the budget falls this afternoon, so does the Green victories in the deal they made with the Centre Party.

[The Lord Marbury]

Hmmm, looks a bit of a mess doesn't it. Another election soon in any event?

The next election will with 99% probability be the one scheduled for September 2022. There's little appetite for a snap election now as Sweden has fixed parliamentary terms, so if a snap election were to be held in January, the one scheduled for September would still take place.

Ostensibly this feature of the constitution is there to incentivise cross-party cooperation when parties want to avoid two elections in relatively close succession, and to disincentivise governments from calling an election whenever polling looks good. But I'm not sure it's working that well at the moment.

[The Lord Marbury]

Okay because this just keeps getting crazier:

The Greens might ragequit the government if the motion of no confidence in the deputy PM is successful 🤣

The main reason they appear to be consider leaving the government doesn't seem to be the possible vote of no confidence against Bolund - that doesn't stand much chance of passing either way.

However they're considering it because of how furious they are at the Centre Party announcing that they will not vote for the government's budget. When the Greens participated in negotiations over forest policy with the Centre Party this autumn, most of what they got in exchange for making concessions to C was part of the budget. If the budget falls this afternoon, so does the Green victories in the deal they made with the Centre Party.

I don't understand why the Social Democrats uphold the forest deal. Center want their forest deal, they have to vote the budget.

Because if they didn't the Centre Party had said that they would vote no to Magdalena Andersson as Prime Minister.

Also, it's official now. The Greens will be leaving the government.