Minimum National Swing Needed for a Losing Candidate to Win (user search)
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  Minimum National Swing Needed for a Losing Candidate to Win (search mode)
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Author Topic: Minimum National Swing Needed for a Losing Candidate to Win  (Read 7830 times)
Benj
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« on: January 02, 2013, 11:24:15 PM »
« edited: January 02, 2013, 11:27:37 PM by Benj »

Interesting,  from this perspective the 1984 is an important realigning election, as the ones after are quite similar to the current one, whilst earlier elections have more of an east/west-split :-)

Sort of. 1972 was much closer to the modern pattern, and 1968 is difficult to describe with much certainty (but, since those same areas of the South had gone hard for Goldwater in 1964, it's possible that they would have favored Nixon over HHH given HHH's stronger association with Johnson and Civil Rights). When done, 1964 will of course strongly resemble the modern map.

On the longer view, 1964 is probably more clearly the realigning election than 1984, with 1976 and 1980 explained as a brief renaissance of the Democrats in the South with Carter as the candidate rather than a continuation of past strength. (House, Senate and state legislature results tell a different story, of course, but they tend to be lagging indicators of partisan changes.)
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