Minimum National Swing Needed for a Losing Candidate to Win (user search)
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  Minimum National Swing Needed for a Losing Candidate to Win (search mode)
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Author Topic: Minimum National Swing Needed for a Losing Candidate to Win  (Read 7784 times)
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« on: January 02, 2013, 06:47:56 AM »
Awesome thread! Keep it going. Smiley
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #1 on: January 05, 2013, 06:56:34 AM »
This is great! Cheesy Can we also have the winning scenario for LaFollette? Smiley
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #2 on: January 06, 2013, 07:41:50 AM »
Thank you. Smiley NY is part of La Follette's winning strategy? And NJ and AK of Wallace's? Surprising.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #3 on: January 13, 2013, 06:34:20 AM »
Hillarious how horribly Roosevelt performed in his home State, even compared to a standard Republican for the time.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #4 on: January 16, 2013, 08:30:04 AM »
That's weird, IL is in Bryan's road to 224 but not WA or WY? I would have thought the West liked him better...
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #5 on: January 17, 2013, 07:47:50 AM »
I guess a Weaver winning scenario would make little sense, but I'd like to see it nonetheless. Wink
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #6 on: January 22, 2013, 05:18:33 PM »
Quote from: Californian Tony on January 17, 2013, 07:47:50 AM
I guess a Weaver winning scenario would make little sense, but I'd like to see it nonetheless. Wink
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #7 on: January 25, 2013, 09:29:24 PM »
*coughcough*

Considering I'm the only one who seems to bother commenting your thread it would be nice if you could at least answer.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #8 on: January 25, 2013, 09:50:47 PM »
Quote from: SPC on January 25, 2013, 09:38:50 PM
Quote from: Californian Tony on January 25, 2013, 09:29:24 PM
*coughcough*

Considering I'm the only one who seems to bother commenting your thread it would be nice if you could at least answer.

Sorry for the delay. I was just a bit reluctant to do a Weaver victory scenario using the same method since it would require Cleveland to get -8% of the vote in several states.

Yeah, I imagined that. Geographically localized 3rd parties are hard to figure out using UNS... I guess I would just have appreciated an answer. Wink
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #9 on: January 29, 2013, 09:54:31 PM »
Quote from: SPC on January 29, 2013, 07:48:15 PM
1872:


Ulysses S. Grant 51.4% 178 EV
Horace Greeley 48.0% 188 EV

LOL, Reconstruction was such a fun time... Tongue
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #10 on: February 03, 2013, 06:04:20 PM »
Quote from: Spenstar3D on February 03, 2013, 11:40:46 AM
It's amazing how many of these wins cause a popular-electoral split, sometimes by quite a big margin...

Well, to be fair, these are supposed to be the narrowest-possible victories for a candidate (meaning that flipping one vote would change the EC winner). So the likelihood that the EC winner and the PV winner differ is about 50% (and would remain 50% if you flipped the winner in all of these scenari).
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #11 on: February 04, 2013, 04:30:01 PM »
I assume the "Douglas wins" scenario is not based on uniform national swing but rather on uniform swing in Northern States only?
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