Minimum National Swing Needed for a Losing Candidate to Win

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(EDIT: I went back to these to take notes of which states switched sides between every election. Enjoy.)

These are the maps of what would happen with a minimum national swing required for the losing candidate to win the election. For example, Romney lost the tipping point state Colorado by 5.37%, so this is the map if Romney had that much of a national swing:

2012

Mitt Romney 49.9% 275 EV
Barack Obama 48.3% 263 EV

Iowa technically returns to the Democrats, although this is more a consequence of Republican states gaining electoral votes.

2008

John McCain 50.4% 276 EV
Barack Obama 48.1% 262 EV

Nevada moves to the Democratic side.

2004

George W. Bush 49.7% 254 EV
John Kerry 49.3% 284 EV

New Hampshire settles with the Democrats.

2000

Al Gore 48.4% 292 EV
George W. Bush 47.9% 246 EV

New Mexico settles with the Democrats. West Virginia switches to the Republicans.

1996

Bob Dole 45.3% 282 EV
Bill Clinton 44.6% 256 EV

Missouri settles with the Republicans, New Jersey switches to the Democrats, and New Hampshire starts oscillating for a few elections. All other state changes appear to be ephemeral.

1992

Bill Clinton 40.7% 263 EV
George Bush 39.8% 275 EV

The only changes of note are the alignment of Delaware and Maine with the Democrats.

Alternatively,

Ross Perot 35.8% 320 EV
Bill Clinton 34.5% 167 EV
George Bush 29.0% 51 EV

1988

Michael Dukakis 49.6% 280 EV
George Bush 49.4% 258 EV

New Mexico oscillates for a few elections, Connecticut moves to the Democrats, Ohio settles back with the Republicans, and Missouri flirts with the Democrats for a few more cycles.

1984

Walter Mondale 50.1% 275 EV
Ronald Reagan 49.3% 263 EV

In the absence of a Southerner on the ticket, the 1972 map is restored, with West Virginia, Maryland, Hawaii, and Vermont (back) with the Democrats and Connecticut and Delaware back with the Republicans.

1980

Ronald Reagan 46.8% 255 EV
Jimmy Carter 45.0% 283 EV

Vermont moves to the Democrats. All other changes are explained by the geography of the 1980 and 1976 Republican nominees.

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1976:

Jimmy Carter 49.2% 261 EV
Gerald Ford 48.9% 277 EV

Nominating a Southerner temporarily restores the 1952 map, with New York serving as a surrogate for ordinarily Democratic Midwestern states.

1972:

Richard Nixon 49.9% 269 EV
George McGovern 48.3% 269 EV*

*Democratic House makes McGovern's election more likely in this scenario. Plus, the closeness of Maine makes it a possibility that McGovern would win one of the congressional districts, thus making the actual count 270-268.

Alaska and Hawaii go to the incumbent. California, Oregon, Wisconsin, and Iowa go to the Democrats, while Texas, Missouri, and New Jersey go to the Republicans.

1968:

Hubert Humphrey 43.9% 246 EV*
Richard Nixon 42.3% 247 EV
George Wallace 13.5% 45 EV

*Assuming that Southern Democrats in the House ultimately vote for Humphrey

Alternatively,

Hubert Humphrey 44.2% 275 EV
Richard Nixon 42.0% 218 EV
George Wallace 13.5% 45 EV

Washington and Illinois settle with the Democrats, and Kentucky goes to the Republicans.

Alternatively...

1964

Barry Goldwater 50.8% 276 EV
Lyndon Johnson 48.8% 262 EV

Most of the South (except Virginia, Florida, and Texas), Delaware goes to the Republicans, and New Jersey goes to the Democrats.

1960

Richard Nixon 49.8% 262 EV*
John F. Kennedy 49.5% 260 EV
Harry F. Byrd 0% 15 EV

*Assuming Nixon makes a deal with Southern Democrats

Otherwise,

Richard Nixon 50.0% 282 EV
John F. Kennedy 49.3% 240 EV
Harry F. Byrd 0% 15 EV

Washington flirts with the Republicans. Tennessee and Florida go to the Republicans, while New York, Connecticut, and Maryland go to the Democrats. This election also bears similarity to the 1928 map.

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1968:

Hubert Humphrey 43.9% 246 EV*
Richard Nixon 42.3% 247 EV
George Wallace 13.5% 45 EV

*Assuming that Southern Democrats in the House ultimately vote for Humphrey

Alternatively,

Hubert Humphrey 44.2% 275 EV
Richard Nixon 42.0% 218 EV
George Wallace 13.5% 45 EV

Southern Dems voting for Humphrey was no sure thing.  However, if Nixon kept his end of the bargain he struck with Humphrey, it wouldn't matter.

What exactly was the bargain between Nixon and Humphrey?

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1956

Dwight D. Eisenhower 50.1% 259 EV
Adlai Stevenson II 49.2% 272 EV

New Mexico goes to the Republicans.

1952

Adlai Stevenson II 50.1% 281 EV
Dwight D. Eisenhower 49.4% 250 EV

Most of the Mountain West goes to the Republicans. Michigan and Pennsylvania go to the Democrats.

1948

Harry S Truman 49.3% 254 EV
Thomas E. Dewey 45.3% 239 EV*
Strom J. Thurmond 2.4% 38 EV

*Assuming (implausibly) that Southern Democrats vote for Dewey.

Otherwise,

Harry S Truman 49.1% 226 EV
Thomas E. Dewey 45.5% 267 EV
Strom J. Thurmond 2.4% 38 EV

Truman brings Missouri into the Democratic column for twenty years. California and Connecticut go to the Republicans

1944

Franklin D. Roosevelt 50.9% 250 EV
Thomas E. Dewey 48.4% 281 EV

Oregon and Maryland go to the Republicans. Massachusetts goes to the Democrats.

1940

Franklin D. Roosevelt 51.3% 233 EV
Wendell Willkie 48.2% 298 EV

North Dakota goes to the Republicans, Delaware goes to the Democrats.

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1936

Franklin D. Roosevelt 50.5% 258 EV
Alfred Landon 46.8% 273 EV

1932

Franklin D. Roosevelt 48.6% 259 EV
Herbert Hoover 48.5% 272 EV

1928

Herbert Hoover 50.9% 264 EV
Al Smith 48.1% 267 EV

1924

John W. Davis 42.1% 273 EV
Calvin Coolidge 40.7% 212 EV
Robert LaFollette 16.6% 46 EV

[SPC]

Alternate 1924:

Robert LaFollette 46.1% 266 EV
Calvin Coolidge 39.3% 139 EV
John W. Davis 14.1% 126 EV

1920

(And yes, these are Atlas colors)

James Cox 49.7% 269 EV
Warren G. Harding 44.7% 262 EV

[SPC]

Since I did Perot and LaFollette, I may as well do Wallace:

Alternate 1968

George Wallace 39.4% 279 EV
Richard Nixon 30.5% 124 EV
Hubert Humphrey 29.8% 135 EV

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1916

Woodrow Wilson 49.1% 259 EV
Charles Hughes 46.3% 272 EV

1912

Theodore Roosevelt 38.5% 282 EV
Woodrow Wilson 36.3% 249 EV
William Howard Taft 17.6% 0 EV

Alternatively,

Woodrow Wilson 36.0% 220 EV
William Howard Taft 34.9% 281 EV
Theodore Roosevelt 21.5% 30 EV

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1908

William Jennings Bryan 48.2% 243 EV
William Howard Taft 46.4% 240 EV

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1904

Theodore Roosevelt 47.1% 236 EV
Alton Parker 46.9% 240 EV

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Hillarious how horribly Roosevelt performed in his home State, even compared to a standard Republican for the time.

In fairness, it was Parker's home state too.

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1900

William Jennings Bryan 49.7% 246 EV
William McKinley 47.5% 201 EV

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1896:

William Jennings Bryan 49.1% 238 EV
William McKinley 48.6% 209 EV

1892:

Benjamin Harrison 44.7% 257 EV
Grover Cleveland 44.3% 160 EV
James Weaver 8.5% 21 EV
(Faithless electors in Oregon, Michigan, and Ohio complicate Harrison's road to victory. If not for faithless electors, Harrison would not have needed Connecticut and New York in his victory map, winning 222-202-20.)

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1888:

Grover Cleveland 49.2% 219 EV
Benjamin Harrison 47.3% 182 EV

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1884:

Grover Cleveland 48.8% 183 EV
James Blaine 48.3% 218 EV

1880:

Winfield Hancock 49.2% 209 EV
James Garfield 47.4% 160 EV

1876:

Samuel J. Tilden 51.2% 191 EV
Rutherford B. Hayes 47.7% 178 EV

[SPC]

*coughcough*

Considering I'm the only one who seems to bother commenting your thread it would be nice if you could at least answer.

Sorry for the delay. I was just a bit reluctant to do a Weaver victory scenario using the same method since it would require Cleveland to get -8% of the vote in several states.

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1872:

Ulysses S. Grant 51.4% 178 EV
Horace Greeley 48.0% 188 EV

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1868

Horatio Seymour 51.0% 152 EV
Ulysses S. Grant 49.0% 142 EV

1864

Abraham Lincoln 50.6% 102 EV
George McClellan 49.4% 131 EV

[SPC]

And now for the first of several 1860 scenarios to come, here is where enough Northern votes are switched from Lincoln to Douglas that no electoral majority results, and the election is deadlocked in the House between Lincoln, Douglas, and Breckinridge. Civil war ensues shortly thereafter.

Abraham Lincoln 36.9% 123 EV
Stephen Douglas 32.2% 66 EV
John Breckinridge 18.2% 75 EV
John Bell 12.6% 39 EV

Second 1860 scenario: Douglas wins an electoral majority; no deadlocked House.

Stephen Douglas 36.3% 152 EV
Abraham Lincoln 32.8% 40 EV
John Breckinridge 18.2% 72 EV
John Bell 12.6% 39 EV

[SPC]

How do you have Douglas winning PA?  He only took 3.52% in real life. Breckenridge who captured 18.2%, if anyone, had a chance to win this state over Lincoln.

And now for the first of several 1860 scenarios to come, here is where enough Northern votes are switched from Lincoln to Douglas that no electoral majority results, and the election is deadlocked in the House between Lincoln, Douglas, and Breckinridge. Civil war ensues shortly thereafter.

Abraham Lincoln 36.9% 123 EV
Stephen Douglas 32.2% 66 EV
John Breckinridge 18.2% 75 EV
John Bell 12.6% 39 EV

Second 1860 scenario: Douglas wins an electoral majority; no deadlocked House.

Stephen Douglas 36.3% 152 EV
Abraham Lincoln 32.8% 40 EV
John Breckinridge 18.2% 72 EV
John Bell 12.6% 39 EV

Pennsylvania votes for Breckinridge were actually votes for a Fusion ticket which would vote for whichever candidate could beat Lincoln.

[SPC]

Here is a map of the House delegations in 1860 under the lame duck 36th Congress.

For ease of computation, I assigned all Democrats in the slave States to the Southern Democrats and all the free States to the Northern Democrats, tho that might not be the case, especially for California and Oregon.

Republican - 15
Southern Democrats - 12
Northern Democrats - 3
American (i.e., southern Whigs; known as the Opposition Party in some states) - 1
Split Southern Democrats/American - 2

Since the Senate is solidly Democratic, whoever is not Hamlin out of the two choices they get will be Vice President and thus Acting President if the House deadlocks.

There's zero chance that Lincoln can get the needed 17 delegations in the House, and with either Sen. Lane (SD-Oregon) or Gov. Johnson (ND-North Carolina) elected Vice President by the Senate, I think the Republicans would likely support Douglas or Bell as the lesser of two evils versus Breckenridge or the Vice President.

However, if Everett (CU-Massachusetts) were Vice President, there might well be a deadlock in the House.  The Republicans would likely prefer Everett to any of Douglas, Breckenridge, or Bell, so they likely wouldn't vote for anyone except Lincoln.  While the Democrats would only have one dog in the running the CU came in second in the electoral college, it wouldn't be enough to elect a President unless they could unite with the American Party, which seems most unlikely unless they get together to elect John Bell of Tennessee.

Anyway, with all that as precursor, how about having the Bell/Everett ticket do well to get second, with no one getting a majority?

So you want a scenario where the House must decide between Lincoln/Douglas/Bell instead of Lincoln/Douglas/Breckinridge? IIRC, the House can only decide between the top three candidates, so Bell isn't an option in the current deadlocked scenario.

[SPC]

I assume the "Douglas wins" scenario is not based on uniform national swing but rather on uniform swing in Northern States only?

Yeah. For the 1860 scenarios, the Northern (North+CA+OR) and Southern (CSA+MO+KY+MD+DE) swings are counted separately.

[SPC]

Sorry I forgot about this for a while.

Anyway, here is Bell's winning scenario as a compromise candidate:

Abraham Lincoln 38.4% 126 EV
Stephen Douglas 30.3% 40 EV
John Breckinridge 17.7% 61 EV
John Bell 13.1% 76 EV

(EV totals are different due to New York's fusion slate)

And here is Breckinridge's winning scenario with an outright electoral majority (assuming that 12 of Pennsylvania's fusion electors would prefer Breckinridge be elected to an uncertain outcome in the House)

Abraham Lincoln 35.1% 56 EV
Stephen Douglas 32.2% 85 EV
John Breckinridge 21.2% 152 EV
John Bell 11.3% 10 EV

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1856:
Scenario 1: No electoral majority, Opposition/American controlled House deadlocks on which candidate to select. Civil war ensues.

James Buchanan 43.1% 145 EV
John Fremont 34.7% 125 EV
Millard Fillmore 22.1% 26 EV

Scenario 2: Fremont wins outright. Civil war ensues:

John Fremont 39.7% 165 EV
James Buchanan 36.2% 58 EV
Millard Fillmore 24.0% 73 EV

Scenario 3: Fillmore wins outright:

Millard Fillmore 37.3% 150 EV
James Buchanan 35.7% 67 EV
John Fremont 26.9% 79 EV

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1852:

Franklin Pierce 48.2% 144 EV
Winfield Scott 46.5% 152 EV

1848:

Zachary Taylor 45.5% 127 EV
Lewis Cass 44.3% 163 EV
Martin Van Buren 10.1% 0 EV

1844:

James Polk 49.0% 134 EV
Henry Clay 48.6% 141 EV

1840:

William Henry Harrison 51.1% 144 EV
Martin Van Buren 48.6% 150 EV

1836:
Whig strategy of denying Van Buren an electoral majority works. Whig electors coalesce around Harrison to prevent Democratic House from selecting the winner

Martin Van Buren 49.6% 132 EV
William Henry Harrison 37.5% 111 EV
Hugh White 10.0% 26 EV
Daniel Webster 2.8% 14 EV
Willie Magnum 0.0% 11 EV

1832:

Andrew Jackson 48.2% 128 EV
Henry Clay 42.7% 149 EV
William Wirt 8.6% 0 EV
John Floyd 0.0% 11 EV