Minimum National Swing Needed for a Losing Candidate to Win

[dudeabides]

Okay, well here is were mine;

(Edit: Thread title was confusing people into thinking this is a generic what-if thread, but it's not.  It's intended for uniformly applied national swings.  Unless one has an alternate method of applying a swing (for example basing the swing on the percentage of the vote a candidate got, rather than a percentage of the votes cast), there is no such thing a scenario that would be yours.  Your scenarios were deleted and the thread title changed.)

[SPC]

Sorry I forgot about this for a while.

Anyway, here is Bell's winning scenario as a compromise candidate:

Abraham Lincoln 38.4% 126 EV
Stephen Douglas 30.3% 40 EV
John Breckinridge 17.7% 61 EV
John Bell 13.1% 76 EV

(EV totals are different due to New York's fusion slate)

And here is Breckinridge's winning scenario with an outright electoral majority (assuming that 12 of Pennsylvania's fusion electors would prefer Breckinridge be elected to an uncertain outcome in the House)

Abraham Lincoln 35.1% 56 EV
Stephen Douglas 32.2% 85 EV
John Breckinridge 21.2% 152 EV
John Bell 11.3% 10 EV

[SPC]

1856:
Scenario 1: No electoral majority, Opposition/American controlled House deadlocks on which candidate to select. Civil war ensues.

James Buchanan 43.1% 145 EV
John Fremont 34.7% 125 EV
Millard Fillmore 22.1% 26 EV

Scenario 2: Fremont wins outright. Civil war ensues:

John Fremont 39.7% 165 EV
James Buchanan 36.2% 58 EV
Millard Fillmore 24.0% 73 EV

Scenario 3: Fillmore wins outright:

Millard Fillmore 37.3% 150 EV
James Buchanan 35.7% 67 EV
John Fremont 26.9% 79 EV

[SPC]

1852:

Franklin Pierce 48.2% 144 EV
Winfield Scott 46.5% 152 EV

1848:

Zachary Taylor 45.5% 127 EV
Lewis Cass 44.3% 163 EV
Martin Van Buren 10.1% 0 EV

1844:

James Polk 49.0% 134 EV
Henry Clay 48.6% 141 EV

1840:

William Henry Harrison 51.1% 144 EV
Martin Van Buren 48.6% 150 EV

1836:
Whig strategy of denying Van Buren an electoral majority works. Whig electors coalesce around Harrison to prevent Democratic House from selecting the winner

Martin Van Buren 49.6% 132 EV
William Henry Harrison 37.5% 111 EV
Hugh White 10.0% 26 EV
Daniel Webster 2.8% 14 EV
Willie Magnum 0.0% 11 EV

1832:

Andrew Jackson 48.2% 128 EV
Henry Clay 42.7% 149 EV
William Wirt 8.6% 0 EV
John Floyd 0.0% 11 EV

[SPC]

Here is a compilation of when each state permanently shifted relative allegiances. I apologize for the messy format. If the state only has a party, then it has remained relatively faithful to that party throughout its existence.:
Alaska: GOP
Hawaii: Dem
California: Dem since 1932, GOP since 1864
Oregon: Dem since 1972/56, GOP since 1944, Dem since 1932, GOP since 1872
Washington: Dem since 1968, GOP since 1960, Dem since 1932
Nevada: Dem since 2008, GOP since 1952, Dem since 1896
Arizona: GOP since 1952
New Mexico: Dem since 1988, GOP since 1956
Utah: GOP since 1952, Dem since 1916, GOP since 1904
Idaho: GOP since 1944/52, Dem since 1932, GOP since 1904
Colorado: GOP since 1924, Dem since 1896
Montana: GOP since 1952/60, Dem since 1896
Wyoming: GOP
Oklahoma: GOP since 1960
North Dakota: GOP since 1940,
South Dakota: GOP
Nebraska: GOP
Kansas: GOP
Minnesota: Dem since 1932
Iowa: Dem since 1972, GOP since 1856
Wisconsin: Dem since 1972, GOP since 1940, Dem since 1928, GOP since 1856
Missouri: GOP since 1996, Dem since 1988, GOP since 1972, Dem since 1948, GOP since 1940
Illinois: Dem since 1968, GOP since 1856/68
MIchigan: Dem since 1952, GOP since 1856
Indiana: GOP since 1928
Ohio: GOP since 1988, Dem since 1964, GOP since 1924, Dem since 1896
South Carolina: GOP since 1964, Dem since 1840
Georgia: GOP since 1964, Dem since 1844
North Carolina: GOP since 1964, Dem since 1856, Whig since 1840
Louisiana: GOP since 1964, Dem since 1860, Whig since 1848
Tennessee: GOP since 1960, Dem since 1872
Virginia: GOP since 1952
Florida: GOP since 1960
Kentucky: GOP since 1960/68, Dem since 1864
Arkansas: GOP since 1964
Mississippi: GOP since 1964
Alabama: GOP since 1964
Texas: GOP since 1972
Pennsylvania: Dem since 1952, GOP since 1872
Maryland: Dem since 1960, GOP since 1944, Dem since 1868
New Jersey: Dem since 1996, GOP since 1972, Dem since 1960/64, GOP since 1896, Dem since 1852
Delaware: Dem since 1992, GOP since 1964, Dem since 1940, GOP since 1928, Dem since 1904, GOP since 1892, Dem since 1856
West Virginia: GOP since 2000, Dem since 1936, GOP since 1892, Dem since 1872
New Hampshire: Dem since 1996, GOP since 1928, Dem since 1920, GOP since 1856, Dem since 1836
Maine: Dem since 1992, GOP since 1856, Dem since 1836
New York: Dem since 1960, GOP since 1892, Dem since 1860
Connecticut: Dem since 1960, GOP since 1948, Dem since 1940, GOP since 1892, Dem since 1864
Rhode Island: Dem since 1940, GOP since 1932, Dem since 1920
Massachusetts: Dem since 1944
Vermont: Dem since 1980

Or here is a prettier version: