Minimum National Swing Needed for a Losing Candidate to Win

[SPC]

Hillarious how horribly Roosevelt performed in his home State, even compared to a standard Republican for the time.

In fairness, it was Parker's home state too.

[SPC]

1900

William Jennings Bryan 49.7% 246 EV
William McKinley 47.5% 201 EV

[Antonio the Sixth]

That's weird, IL is in Bryan's road to 224 but not WA or WY? I would have thought the West liked him better...

[SPC]

1896:

William Jennings Bryan 49.1% 238 EV
William McKinley 48.6% 209 EV

1892:

Benjamin Harrison 44.7% 257 EV
Grover Cleveland 44.3% 160 EV
James Weaver 8.5% 21 EV
(Faithless electors in Oregon, Michigan, and Ohio complicate Harrison's road to victory. If not for faithless electors, Harrison would not have needed Connecticut and New York in his victory map, winning 222-202-20.)

[Antonio the Sixth]

I guess a Weaver winning scenario would make little sense, but I'd like to see it nonetheless.

[SPC]

1888:

Grover Cleveland 49.2% 219 EV
Benjamin Harrison 47.3% 182 EV

[Antonio the Sixth]

I guess a Weaver winning scenario would make little sense, but I'd like to see it nonetheless.

[SPC]

1884:

Grover Cleveland 48.8% 183 EV
James Blaine 48.3% 218 EV

1880:

Winfield Hancock 49.2% 209 EV
James Garfield 47.4% 160 EV

1876:

Samuel J. Tilden 51.2% 191 EV
Rutherford B. Hayes 47.7% 178 EV

[Antonio the Sixth]

*coughcough*

Considering I'm the only one who seems to bother commenting your thread it would be nice if you could at least answer.

[SPC]

*coughcough*

Considering I'm the only one who seems to bother commenting your thread it would be nice if you could at least answer.

Sorry for the delay. I was just a bit reluctant to do a Weaver victory scenario using the same method since it would require Cleveland to get -8% of the vote in several states.

[Antonio the Sixth]

*coughcough*

Considering I'm the only one who seems to bother commenting your thread it would be nice if you could at least answer.

Sorry for the delay. I was just a bit reluctant to do a Weaver victory scenario using the same method since it would require Cleveland to get -8% of the vote in several states.

Yeah, I imagined that. Geographically localized 3rd parties are hard to figure out using UNS... I guess I would just have appreciated an answer.

[SPC]

1872:

Ulysses S. Grant 51.4% 178 EV
Horace Greeley 48.0% 188 EV

[Antonio the Sixth]

1872:

Ulysses S. Grant 51.4% 178 EV
Horace Greeley 48.0% 188 EV

LOL, Reconstruction was such a fun time...

[Blackacre]

It's amazing how many of these wins cause a popular-electoral split, sometimes by quite a big margin...

[Antonio the Sixth]

It's amazing how many of these wins cause a popular-electoral split, sometimes by quite a big margin...

Well, to be fair, these are supposed to be the narrowest-possible victories for a candidate (meaning that flipping one vote would change the EC winner). So the likelihood that the EC winner and the PV winner differ is about 50% (and would remain 50% if you flipped the winner in all of these scenari).

[SPC]

1868

Horatio Seymour 51.0% 152 EV
Ulysses S. Grant 49.0% 142 EV

1864

Abraham Lincoln 50.6% 102 EV
George McClellan 49.4% 131 EV

[SPC]

And now for the first of several 1860 scenarios to come, here is where enough Northern votes are switched from Lincoln to Douglas that no electoral majority results, and the election is deadlocked in the House between Lincoln, Douglas, and Breckinridge. Civil war ensues shortly thereafter.

Abraham Lincoln 36.9% 123 EV
Stephen Douglas 32.2% 66 EV
John Breckinridge 18.2% 75 EV
John Bell 12.6% 39 EV

Second 1860 scenario: Douglas wins an electoral majority; no deadlocked House.

Stephen Douglas 36.3% 152 EV
Abraham Lincoln 32.8% 40 EV
John Breckinridge 18.2% 72 EV
John Bell 12.6% 39 EV

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Here is a map of the House delegations in 1860 under the lame duck 36th Congress.

For ease of computation, I assigned all Democrats in the slave States to the Southern Democrats and all the free States to the Northern Democrats, tho that might not be the case, especially for California and Oregon.

Republican - 15
Southern Democrats - 12
Northern Democrats - 3
American (i.e., southern Whigs; known as the Opposition Party in some states) - 1
Split Southern Democrats/American - 2

Since the Senate is solidly Democratic, whoever is not Hamlin out of the two choices they get will be Vice President and thus Acting President if the House deadlocks.

There's zero chance that Lincoln can get the needed 17 delegations in the House, and with either Sen. Lane (SD-Oregon) or Gov. Johnson (ND-North Carolina) elected Vice President by the Senate, I think the Republicans would likely support Douglas or Bell as the lesser of two evils versus Breckenridge or the Vice President.

However, if Everett (CU-Massachusetts) were Vice President, there might well be a deadlock in the House.  The Republicans would likely prefer Everett to any of Douglas, Breckenridge, or Bell, so they likely wouldn't vote for anyone except Lincoln.  While the Democrats would only have one dog in the running the CU came in second in the electoral college, it wouldn't be enough to elect a President unless they could unite with the American Party, which seems most unlikely unless they get together to elect John Bell of Tennessee.

Anyway, with all that as precursor, how about having the Bell/Everett ticket do well to get second, with no one getting a majority?

[jaichind]

How do you have Douglas winning PA?  He only took 3.52% in real life. Breckenridge who captured 18.2%, if anyone, had a chance to win this state over Lincoln.

And now for the first of several 1860 scenarios to come, here is where enough Northern votes are switched from Lincoln to Douglas that no electoral majority results, and the election is deadlocked in the House between Lincoln, Douglas, and Breckinridge. Civil war ensues shortly thereafter.

Abraham Lincoln 36.9% 123 EV
Stephen Douglas 32.2% 66 EV
John Breckinridge 18.2% 75 EV
John Bell 12.6% 39 EV

Second 1860 scenario: Douglas wins an electoral majority; no deadlocked House.

Stephen Douglas 36.3% 152 EV
Abraham Lincoln 32.8% 40 EV
John Breckinridge 18.2% 72 EV
John Bell 12.6% 39 EV

[SPC]

How do you have Douglas winning PA?  He only took 3.52% in real life. Breckenridge who captured 18.2%, if anyone, had a chance to win this state over Lincoln.

And now for the first of several 1860 scenarios to come, here is where enough Northern votes are switched from Lincoln to Douglas that no electoral majority results, and the election is deadlocked in the House between Lincoln, Douglas, and Breckinridge. Civil war ensues shortly thereafter.

Abraham Lincoln 36.9% 123 EV
Stephen Douglas 32.2% 66 EV
John Breckinridge 18.2% 75 EV
John Bell 12.6% 39 EV

Second 1860 scenario: Douglas wins an electoral majority; no deadlocked House.

Stephen Douglas 36.3% 152 EV
Abraham Lincoln 32.8% 40 EV
John Breckinridge 18.2% 72 EV
John Bell 12.6% 39 EV

Pennsylvania votes for Breckinridge were actually votes for a Fusion ticket which would vote for whichever candidate could beat Lincoln.

[SPC]

Here is a map of the House delegations in 1860 under the lame duck 36th Congress.

For ease of computation, I assigned all Democrats in the slave States to the Southern Democrats and all the free States to the Northern Democrats, tho that might not be the case, especially for California and Oregon.

Republican - 15
Southern Democrats - 12
Northern Democrats - 3
American (i.e., southern Whigs; known as the Opposition Party in some states) - 1
Split Southern Democrats/American - 2

Since the Senate is solidly Democratic, whoever is not Hamlin out of the two choices they get will be Vice President and thus Acting President if the House deadlocks.

There's zero chance that Lincoln can get the needed 17 delegations in the House, and with either Sen. Lane (SD-Oregon) or Gov. Johnson (ND-North Carolina) elected Vice President by the Senate, I think the Republicans would likely support Douglas or Bell as the lesser of two evils versus Breckenridge or the Vice President.

However, if Everett (CU-Massachusetts) were Vice President, there might well be a deadlock in the House.  The Republicans would likely prefer Everett to any of Douglas, Breckenridge, or Bell, so they likely wouldn't vote for anyone except Lincoln.  While the Democrats would only have one dog in the running the CU came in second in the electoral college, it wouldn't be enough to elect a President unless they could unite with the American Party, which seems most unlikely unless they get together to elect John Bell of Tennessee.

Anyway, with all that as precursor, how about having the Bell/Everett ticket do well to get second, with no one getting a majority?

So you want a scenario where the House must decide between Lincoln/Douglas/Bell instead of Lincoln/Douglas/Breckinridge? IIRC, the House can only decide between the top three candidates, so Bell isn't an option in the current deadlocked scenario.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I assume the "Douglas wins" scenario is not based on uniform national swing but rather on uniform swing in Northern States only?

[SPC]

I assume the "Douglas wins" scenario is not based on uniform national swing but rather on uniform swing in Northern States only?

Yeah. For the 1860 scenarios, the Northern (North+CA+OR) and Southern (CSA+MO+KY+MD+DE) swings are counted separately.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

So you want a scenario where the House must decide between Lincoln/Douglas/Bell instead of Lincoln/Douglas/Breckinridge? IIRC, the House can only decide between the top three candidates, so Bell isn't an option in the current deadlocked scenario.

Yup.  Lincoln/Breckenridge/Bell would also be interesting.  While not a minimum swing by any means, here is an example of a double swing involving swings within the fractured Whig and Democratic parties. (Not a uniform swing, the swing shown is 20% of Lincoln votes to Bell and 20% of Breckenridge votes to Douglas, even in states where Bell or Douglas were not on the ballot.)

109 EV 33.2% PV Douglas
  83 EV 31.7% PV Lincoln
  73 EV 20.5% PV Bell
  38 EV 14.6% PV Breckenridge

[Enderman]

bump. this thread is awesome!