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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results
  2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: Torie, ON Progressive)
  Turnout as a percentage of the total Mid-2012 population (search mode)
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Author Topic: Turnout as a percentage of the total Mid-2012 population  (Read 3157 times)
Trends are real, and I f**king hate it
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 51,579
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83


« on: January 01, 2013, 07:50:32 am »

So is that higher or lower than 2004, after all?
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Trends are real, and I f**king hate it
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 51,579
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83


« Reply #1 on: January 01, 2013, 08:53:06 am »

So is that higher or lower than 2004, after all?

Down. 2004 was 60.1%. 2008 was 61.6%

DAMN!! That means Dubya slightly beat Obama in terms of % of VEP, with 30.49% against 30.06%... Sad
Logged
Trends are real, and I f**king hate it
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 51,579
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83


« Reply #2 on: January 01, 2013, 03:45:53 pm »

2004 and 2008 were both viewed by the public as "crisis" election. First we had post 9/11 and the War in Iraq. Then we had the economic meltdown. I'm all for voter turnout, but I'd rather not have another clusterInks that we'd need to replicate turnout from those elections.

I don't think the high turnout in 2004 and 2008 was caused by a "crisis" situation. 1980 didn't have a very high turnout, after all. What happened these two years is that a side (the GOP in 2004, Dems in 2008) did a great job at turning out their base. And, considering the situation, the still pretty good 2012 turnout is because Obama's GOTV machine still does a good job. If there is anything we can learn for the last few things, is that campaigns, when they put a little efforts in it, can and do manage to increase turnout. What happened in the 80s and 90s is that nobody bothered about turning out voters.

Hopefully politicians (dems in particular, since their base is naturally less prone to voting) will learn the lesson and keep on with GOTV efforts.
Logged
Trends are real, and I f**king hate it
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 51,579
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83


« Reply #3 on: January 02, 2013, 06:51:36 am »

2004 and 2008 were both viewed by the public as "crisis" election. First we had post 9/11 and the War in Iraq. Then we had the economic meltdown. I'm all for voter turnout, but I'd rather not have another clusterInks that we'd need to replicate turnout from those elections.

I don't think the high turnout in 2004 and 2008 was caused by a "crisis" situation. 1980 didn't have a very high turnout, after all. What happened these two years is that a side (the GOP in 2004, Dems in 2008) did a great job at turning out their base. And, considering the situation, the still pretty good 2012 turnout is because Obama's GOTV machine still does a good job. If there is anything we can learn for the last few things, is that campaigns, when they put a little efforts in it, can and do manage to increase turnout. What happened in the 80s and 90s is that nobody bothered about turning out voters.

Hopefully politicians (dems in particular, since their base is naturally less prone to voting) will learn the lesson and keep on with GOTV efforts.
In 1980, the perception was that the government was the crisis, which is a different dynamic. The population was also lot younger then, and you know how much youngs love to vote.

I still don't think that "crisis" provides any explanation. There are plenty of other dynamics that explain turnout evolution much better.
Logged
Trends are real, and I f**king hate it
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 51,579
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83


« Reply #4 on: January 03, 2013, 04:33:00 pm »


Colorado really stands out. Pretty interesting map anyways.
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