2012 Pres statistical oddities

[Franknburger]

After doing some research, the only counties without some kind of obvious connection to coal that swung 20 were:

Calhoun, IL
Rush,IN
Stark,ND
McMullen, TX
Waupaca, WI

All 8 in Utah except Carbon.  Obviously Utah had a rally around the Morm effect.

So, excluding coal and Mormonism, 5 counties swung 20% or more.

Calhoun, IL: 53,5% German ancestry (2000 census), went for Obama in 2008
Rush, IN: 32,5% American ancestry, 27,6% German, 13,4% Obama swing in 2008
Stark, ND: 57,9% German ancestry, 13,1% Obama swing in 2008
Waupaca,WI: 53,1% German ancestry, 17,7% Obama swing in 2008
McMullen, TX: 20% German ancestry (2010) - only 500 votes in total

There seems to be a pattern here, which also extends to several +20% R-swing 'coal counties', e,g. Dubois, IN (64,7% German), Knox, IN (28,6% American, 26,3% German), Clay, IN (30,7% American, 25,7% German), Elk, PA (42,8% German), Clinton, IL (62,1% German), Clark, IL (26,4% German, 24,4% American), Jasper, IL (49,2% German), Jersey, IL (39,2% German), Wabash, IL (32,4% German, 22,8% American).
I also noted that some of the more heavy (> 10%) R swings in Texas occurred in "German Texan' counties (Lavaca, Fayette, Burnet, Clay, Karnes, Kimble, McCulloch, Mason, Parker)

  Having been raised in Waupaca County Wi, the true surprise is how far it swung D in 2008.  2008 is the first time the county went Democratic since 1936.  2012's results are more normal.
 

So what made a sizeable number of rural counties in the mid-west with strong German ancestry swing to Obama in 2008, and swing back even more heavily to the Republicans in 2012? Obama's 2008 pacifist appeal and Berlin speech? Or were Romney/ Ryan (Boehner) just a better 'cultural fit' for German Americans than McCain?

[Franknburger]

Which German areas 'around here' are you referring to, Bandit? If true, it would be an interesting exception to the rule.

The counties with Cincinnati and Louisville just keep trending to the Democrats. And Campbell and Kenton counties really didn't trend to the GOP (compared to the country as a whole).

Just out of curiosity - are Northern Kentucky ancestral Germans mostly Catholic or Protestant (Lutheran)?  It might be that the German confessional divide (Catholics-> CDU, Protestants-> SPD/ FDP) is being continued in the USA ...

Otherwise - it seems Campbell and Kenton counties are rather suburban than rural, and as such more exposed to migration, as well as to a different political micro-climate.

[Franknburger]

Just looking at those 5, would people say these are the reasons?

Calhoun, IL-  Obama being a poor fit for the area, combined with the fact that the favourite son efffect has gone
Rush,IN- A reversion to normal after Obama's huge overperformance in 2008.
Stark,ND- Oil
McMullen, TX- Oil
Waupaca, WI- A reversion to normal.

There's no oil in McMullen county.

Actually, there does not seem to be anything at all in McMullen county. 2010 Population was 707 people, a 17% decrease against 2000. In absolute figures, the swing was 31 more Romney than McCain votes, and 65 less Obama votes in 2012.

Just across the county line, in neighbouring Live Oak County, however, is the Three Rivers Federal Correctional Institute, which probably employs a good part of the McMullen population.