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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results
  2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: Torie, ON Progressive)
  2012 Pres statistical oddities
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Author Topic: 2012 Pres statistical oddities  (Read 4100 times)
timothyinMD
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« on: December 23, 2012, 03:05:15 pm »
« edited: January 14, 2013, 05:31:37 pm by timothyinMD »

Found this by accident.  Going out on a limb that it's the smallest swing of any county

Dodge County, GA  0.0000692% swing Republican
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Badger
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« Reply #1 on: December 23, 2012, 03:14:27 pm »

I assume Dodge was a one vote swing?
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homelycooking
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« Reply #2 on: December 24, 2012, 08:54:17 am »

I assume Dodge was a one vote swing?

Swing isn't measured in terms of votes. The R-D margin remained almost exactly the same from 2008 to 2012, though the percentages of both declined equally (slightly better 3rd party performance in 2012) and the actual number of votes cast for both declined as well (lower voter turnout in 2012).
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #3 on: December 26, 2012, 12:07:22 pm »

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/statesub.php?year=2012&fips=13031&f=0&off=0&elect=0

Bulloch County wasn't an exact tie -- Romney won 59-40 (or, by votes, 14174-9593). I have no idea where you're getting the exact tie from.

Read what he wrote again.
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timothyinMD
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« Reply #4 on: December 26, 2012, 01:22:39 pm »
« Edited: December 26, 2012, 01:31:22 pm by timothyinMD »

Strongest Republican swings among the counties

I count 62 that swung 20.00% or more Republican

Illinois (14) Gallatin, White, Lawrence, Edgar, Clark, Jasper, Wabash, Wayne, Edwards, Calhoun, Jersey, Clay, Clinton, Saline
Indiana (6) Dubois, Knox, Clay, Vermillion, Rush, Putnam
Kentucky (15) Knott, Pike, Magoffin, Floyd, Union, Perry, Breathitt, Morgan, Letcher, Wolfe, Elliot, Webster, Muhlenberg, Menifee, McLean
North Dakota (1) Stark
Pennsylvania (1) Elk
Texas (1) McMullen
Utah (8 ) Carbon, Cache, Wasatch, Juab, Daggett, Sanpete, Tooele, Salt Lake
Virginia (6) Buchanan, Dickenson, Tazewell, Russell, Wise, City of Norton
West Virginia (9) Boone, McDowell, Webster, Nicholas, Mingo, Wyoming, Logan, Clay, Lincoln
Wisconsin (1) Waupaca

Top ten were
Boone WV 42.21
Knott KY 39.73
McDowell WV 38.42
Pike KY 36.71
Webster WV 33.13
Magoffin KY 32.84
Floyd KY 32.57
Nicholas WV 32.04
Gallatin IL 31.05
Mingo WV 30.56

Only one county swung 20.00% or more Democratic so I bumped the threshold down to 10.00%  Still that only yielded 5

Saint Bernard, LA 20.77
Clark, ID 12.74
Reeves, TX 11.00
Webb, TX  10.57
Saint John the Baptist, LA  10.10


Notable takeaways:

Most of the Republican ones are coal counties
Salt Lake stands out as it's by far the most populous of them all

St Bernard is quite an outlier
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #5 on: December 26, 2012, 01:30:26 pm »

Without doing any reasearch, I'd guess at least  50 of those counties engange in coal mining.
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timothyinMD
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« Reply #6 on: December 26, 2012, 01:50:33 pm »

Looking at all counties that swung 10.00% or more the total was 691 R to 5 D

The 5 D I referenced in my last post.  Without naming them the R's are
Missouri 77
Illinois 73
Indiana 70
Texas 53
Kentucky, West Virginia 41
North Dakota 38
Montana 35
South Dakota 34
Michigan 31
Wisconsin 28
Utah 27
Nebraska 19
Pennsylvania 17
Tennessee 14
Iowa, Kansas 13
Virginia 11
Minnesota, Nevada 8
Arkansas, Ohio, Wyoming 7
Idaho 6
Colorado 5
Georgia 2
Louisiana, Maryland, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Oregon, Washington 1
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timothyinMD
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« Reply #7 on: December 26, 2012, 01:59:21 pm »

Counties where Obama earned the same vote total in 08 and 12
Carlton, GA
Harding, NM
King William, VA

Counties where McCain/Romney earned the same vote total in 08 and 12

Henderson, IL
Bullock, GA
Norton, KS
Owsley, KY
Valley, NE
Dawson, NE


AND!  Salem NJ was a tie between Romney-Obama.  First since Pend Oreille, WA in 1988
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #8 on: December 27, 2012, 12:52:02 pm »
« Edited: December 27, 2012, 01:03:10 pm by dingojoe »

After doing some research, the only counties without some kind of obvious connection to coal that swung 20 were:

Calhoun, IL
Rush,IN
Stark,ND
McMullen, TX
Waupaca, WI

All 8 in Utah except Carbon.  Obviously Utah had a rally around the Morm effect.

So, excluding coal and Mormonism, 5 counties swung 20% or more.
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ill ind
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« Reply #9 on: December 28, 2012, 09:52:21 am »

  Having been raised in Waupaca County Wi, the true surprise is how far it swung D in 2008.  2008 is the first time the county went Democratic since 1936.  2012's results are more normal.
  The Illinois counties' swings are not surprising either as the southern part of the state has been swinging towards the GOP for several years now.  The problem for the GOP is that it takes a huge amount counties with 10,000 or fewer votes swinging their way to make up for the 6 collar counties around Chicago with a quarter of the state's vote swinging towards the Dems.
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bore
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« Reply #10 on: December 28, 2012, 11:07:20 am »

Just looking at those 5, would people say these are the reasons?

Calhoun, IL-  Obama being a poor fit for the area, combined with the fact that the favourite son efffect has gone
Rush,IN- A reversion to normal after Obama's huge overperformance in 2008.
Stark,ND- Oil
McMullen, TX- Oil
Waupaca, WI- A reversion to normal.

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Franknburger
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« Reply #11 on: December 28, 2012, 01:19:39 pm »

After doing some research, the only counties without some kind of obvious connection to coal that swung 20 were:

Calhoun, IL
Rush,IN
Stark,ND
McMullen, TX
Waupaca, WI

All 8 in Utah except Carbon.  Obviously Utah had a rally around the Morm effect.

So, excluding coal and Mormonism, 5 counties swung 20% or more.

Calhoun, IL: 53,5% German ancestry (2000 census), went for Obama in 2008
Rush, IN: 32,5% American ancestry, 27,6% German, 13,4% Obama swing in 2008
Stark, ND: 57,9% German ancestry, 13,1% Obama swing in 2008
Waupaca,WI: 53,1% German ancestry, 17,7% Obama swing in 2008
McMullen, TX: 20% German ancestry (2010) - only 500 votes in total

There seems to be a pattern here, which also extends to several +20% R-swing 'coal counties', e,g. Dubois, IN (64,7% German), Knox, IN (28,6% American, 26,3% German), Clay, IN (30,7% American, 25,7% German), Elk, PA (42,8% German), Clinton, IL (62,1% German), Clark, IL (26,4% German, 24,4% American), Jasper, IL (49,2% German), Jersey, IL (39,2% German), Wabash, IL (32,4% German, 22,8% American).
I also noted that some of the more heavy (> 10%) R swings in Texas occurred in "German Texan' counties (Lavaca, Fayette, Burnet, Clay, Karnes, Kimble, McCulloch, Mason, Parker)

  Having been raised in Waupaca County Wi, the true surprise is how far it swung D in 2008.  2008 is the first time the county went Democratic since 1936.  2012's results are more normal.
 

So what made a sizeable number of rural counties in the mid-west with strong German ancestry swing to Obama in 2008, and swing back even more heavily to the Republicans in 2012? Obama's 2008 pacifist appeal and Berlin speech? Or were Romney/ Ryan (Boehner) just a better 'cultural fit' for German Americans than McCain?
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #12 on: December 28, 2012, 01:29:44 pm »

So what made a sizeable number of rural counties in the mid-west with strong German ancestry swing to Obama in 2008, and swing back even more heavily to the Republicans in 2012?

Then why did German areas around here keep trending to Obama?
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Vosem
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« Reply #13 on: December 28, 2012, 01:46:39 pm »

So what made a sizeable number of rural counties in the mid-west with strong German ancestry swing to Obama in 2008, and swing back even more heavily to the Republicans in 2012?

Then why did German areas around here keep trending to Obama?

Midwesterners of German ancestry are stereotypically traditionally Republican pacifistic fiscal conservatives. Obama overperformed among such types very significantly with his promise to end the war in Iraq, but it seems logical such areas would not approve of his healthcare plan whatsoever, and moreover would be more attracted by a 'businessman' like Romney than a 'experienced politician' like McCain. So it seems logical such areas would swing back to the GOP.

Which German areas 'around here' are you referring to, Bandit? If true, it would be an interesting exception to the rule.

Indiana is also a special case, as Obama poured a s**tload of money into that state in 2008 while McCain ignored it, but then it was ignored by both campaigns in 2012. So, due to factors of campaign strategy, it swung heavily D in 2008 then just as heavily back R in 2012.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #14 on: December 28, 2012, 01:53:22 pm »

Which German areas 'around here' are you referring to, Bandit? If true, it would be an interesting exception to the rule.

The counties with Cincinnati and Louisville just keep trending to the Democrats. And Campbell and Kenton counties really didn't trend to the GOP (compared to the country as a whole).
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Franknburger
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« Reply #15 on: December 28, 2012, 06:50:43 pm »

Which German areas 'around here' are you referring to, Bandit? If true, it would be an interesting exception to the rule.

The counties with Cincinnati and Louisville just keep trending to the Democrats. And Campbell and Kenton counties really didn't trend to the GOP (compared to the country as a whole).

Just out of curiosity - are Northern Kentucky ancestral Germans mostly Catholic or Protestant (Lutheran)?  It might be that the German confessional divide (Catholics-> CDU, Protestants-> SPD/ FDP) is being continued in the USA ...

Otherwise - it seems Campbell and Kenton counties are rather suburban than rural, and as such more exposed to migration, as well as to a different political micro-climate.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #16 on: December 28, 2012, 06:52:29 pm »

Just out of curiosity - are Northern Kentucky ancestral Germans mostly Catholic or Protestant (Lutheran)?

Mostly Catholic.
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solarstorm
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« Reply #17 on: January 14, 2013, 06:26:23 am »

Here's another fun fact:

Indiana and Virginia voted for different candidates this time.
This hasn't happened since 1948.
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solarstorm
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« Reply #18 on: January 14, 2013, 09:47:55 pm »

AND!  Salem NJ was a tie between Romney-Obama.  First since Pend Oreille Ferry County, WA in 1988
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #19 on: January 14, 2013, 10:24:49 pm »

Arenac County, MI voted for Romney, making him the first Republican presidential candidate since 1988 (I believe) to carry that couny.  And yet he still lost Michigan.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #20 on: January 15, 2013, 01:13:06 pm »

Arenac County, MI voted for Romney, making him the first Republican presidential candidate since 1988 (I believe) to carry that couny.  And yet he still lost Michigan.

Well, there goes the whole "As Arenac votes, so votes Michigan theory"

Actually Dukakis won Arenac in 1988.

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PR
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« Reply #21 on: January 16, 2013, 08:23:03 pm »

Which German areas 'around here' are you referring to, Bandit? If true, it would be an interesting exception to the rule.

The counties with Cincinnati and Louisville just keep trending to the Democrats. And Campbell and Kenton counties really didn't trend to the GOP (compared to the country as a whole).

Just out of curiosity - are Northern Kentucky ancestral Germans mostly Catholic or Protestant (Lutheran)?  It might be that the German confessional divide (Catholics-> CDU, Protestants-> SPD/ FDP) is being continued in the USA ...

Otherwise - it seems Campbell and Kenton counties are rather suburban than rural, and as such more exposed to migration, as well as to a different political micro-climate.

This might be key...hard to develop long-lasting social conservatism when people are more transient.
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Indy Texas
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« Reply #22 on: January 18, 2013, 02:17:51 am »

Just looking at those 5, would people say these are the reasons?

Calhoun, IL-  Obama being a poor fit for the area, combined with the fact that the favourite son efffect has gone
Rush,IN- A reversion to normal after Obama's huge overperformance in 2008.
Stark,ND- Oil
McMullen, TX- Oil
Waupaca, WI- A reversion to normal.



There's no oil in McMullen county.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #23 on: January 18, 2013, 11:36:23 am »

BTW, the Waupauca, WI vote total was an error, the corrected total resulted in a swing of about 12 pts.
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Franknburger
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« Reply #24 on: January 18, 2013, 07:10:42 pm »

Just looking at those 5, would people say these are the reasons?

Calhoun, IL-  Obama being a poor fit for the area, combined with the fact that the favourite son efffect has gone
Rush,IN- A reversion to normal after Obama's huge overperformance in 2008.
Stark,ND- Oil
McMullen, TX- Oil
Waupaca, WI- A reversion to normal.



There's no oil in McMullen county.

Actually, there does not seem to be anything at all in McMullen county. 2010 Population was 707 people, a 17% decrease against 2000. In absolute figures, the swing was 31 more Romney than McCain votes, and 65 less Obama votes in 2012.

Just across the county line, in neighbouring Live Oak County, however, is the Three Rivers Federal Correctional Institute, which probably employs a good part of the McMullen population.
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