2013 Elections in Canada

[Hatman 🍁]

I guess that explains the PC swing in that one riding (Hants West?)

[DC Al Fine]

I guess that explains the PC swing in that one riding (Hants West?)

Yup. It's great/frustrating depending on whether you have the popular incumbent.

[RogueBeaver]

Back OT, looks like Wynne is gathering some mo. Rumours that Murray will drop out and endorse her. John Wilkinson is defecting from Pupatello to Wynne.


http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/wynnes-ontario-liberal-leadership-campaign-gets-key-endorsement/article7152903/

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ontario-liberal-leadership-candidates-push-for-peace-with-teachers/article7153498/

http://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/education-takes-centre-stage-in-ontario-liberal-leadership-debate-1.1107753

[RogueBeaver]

Murray has dropped out and endorsed Wynne.

[Hatman 🍁]

Is there not a thread for the Ontario Liberal race?

[RogueBeaver]

I decided to put that stuff here. It'll be over in 2 weeks anyways.

[RogueBeaver]

Per Radwanski's Twitter feed, looks like Pupatello will emerge with a narrow delegate lead in tonight's balloting. Keeping in mind that GTA will only vote later today. 231-200 with Kennedy at 105.

[lilTommy]

Any idea where Kennedy will swing his "king maker" support?

In the end, it usually works best for the NDP anyway as per the last time he backed a winner

looks like a battle between the more Centre-right Pupatello and the Centre-left Wynne... everyone else will be blurred out, Murray is probably the first of the rest to drop (Kennedy will be the last if he even does)

[Hatman 🍁]

If anyone can get me some links about the delegates and what ridings they're from, I would be happy to make a map

[RogueBeaver]

And if Pupatello wins, the Liberals will have their first seatless premier in eons. Grits better hope she doesn't pull some sort of idiotic stunt that backfires, like Eves' Magna budget.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1314392--ontario-liberals-sandra-pupatello-leads-after-first-day-of-delegate-voting

Per the OLP Twitter feed, we won't get official delegate counts from today's voting till later in the week. Dunno how soon the Queen's Park reporters will get an unofficial one.

[RogueBeaver]

I spoke too soon: Pupatello 438, Wynne 383, Kennedy 231. So far.

[Hatman 🍁]

Surprising, I thought Wynne would win.

Anyways, hopefully the official delegate counts will have the riding by riding details.

[RogueBeaver]

Now Pupatello 504, Wynne 463, Kennedy 257, Tahrar 244.

[Hash]

Earl, if you're still making that OLP map, I can at least give you the results in Ottawa-Orleans:

Ottawa-Orléans Riding results
Sandra Pupatello - 91 votes (9 delegates) + 1 from the Ottawa-Orléans Women Commission.
Harinder Takhar - 28 (3 delegates)
Gerard Kennedy - 27 (3 delegates)
Kathleen Wynne - 5 (1 delegate)
Eric Hoskins - 2
Charles Sousa - 0
Independent - 0

[Hatman 🍁]

Earl, if you're still making that OLP map, I can at least give you the results in Ottawa-Orleans:

Ottawa-Orléans Riding results
Sandra Pupatello - 91 votes (9 delegates) + 1 from the Ottawa-Orléans Women Commission.
Harinder Takhar - 28 (3 delegates)
Gerard Kennedy - 27 (3 delegates)
Kathleen Wynne - 5 (1 delegate)
Eric Hoskins - 2
Charles Sousa - 0
Independent - 0

Interesting. Now only 106 more ridings to go.

Any idea why those results happened?

[RogueBeaver]

Uhh, wow. Just wow.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1315045--harinder-takhar-as-deputy-premier-is-a-scary-thought-cohn

[Hatman 🍁]

The bad man has these infographics in the globe and mail (regional breakdown of delegate support), so the info is out there somewhere. Maybe I'll have to email the OLP.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/infographic-the-regional-breakdown-of-ontario-liberal-leadership-support/article7372357/?from=7372848

[Hatman 🍁]

Twitterverse has helped me out: http://www.cbc.ca/toronto/news/xls/election-totals.pdf

Seems to match Hash's totals for his riding.

I also emailed the OLP, they'll probably send me the same thing.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I had a dream last night that McGuinty was assassinated by Quebecois separatists leading to a Liberal landslide against Hudak and the NDP with the NDP only winning bobo ridings in Toronto. This is what happens when you binge on Infinite Jest while having a history of dabbling in Canadian politics...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Did McGuinty hear the squeak?

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's the map.



Blog post hopefully coming tonight or tomorrow.

Interesting things going on in this map. I see language / ethnicity and even religion are playing a role in this one. I am surprised that Vaughan and Nipissing didn't go for Pupatello. Anywhere else in the province with a sizable Italian population went for her.

[RogueBeaver]

Alain Paquet, aka the guy who LBB beat, is supporting Couillard despite having been Bachand's junior minister. LOL. Something about presumptive Liberal nominees poaching people in close proximity to their chief rivals.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201301/15/01-4611680-alain-paquet-se-rallie-a-lequipe-couillard.php

Hoskins: Now wasn't my time, might release delegates or throw them to Wynne.

http://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorialopinion/article/1316004--ontario-liberal-leadership-candidate-eric-hoskins-maybe-this-just-isn-t-my-time

[MaxQue]

Earl: Italians in Nipissing? Really?

[Hatman 🍁]

Earl: Italians in Nipissing? Really?

North Bay has a lot of Italians. Just look at some of the names of the politicians from there. Vic Fidelli is the current MPP and Anthony Rota is the former MP, for example.

[mileslunn]

In terms of election this year, Quebec is possible but not likely, so here are my thoughts.

Nova Scotia - Likely a Liberal win, the question is will it be a majority or a minority.  The NDP if lucky still might pull off a minority as they aren't trailing by any more than they were in 2011 in Manitoba as this point or McGuinty in Ontario so if they run a solid campaign and the Liberals mess up, they could pull it off.  PCs don't really stand much of a chance.  There best hope is the Liberals get in and screw up and then they are able to present themselves as the alternative to both.

British Columbia - Unless Adrian Dix does something incredibly stupid, I expect an NDP majority with around 60 seats.  It won't be a massacre like 2001 thanks to the decline of the BC Conservatives and the fact you do still have a sizeable number who will never vote NDP under any circumstance.  I do though think Christy Clark will lose her own riding as Vancouver-Point Grey has always been a marginal BC Liberal riding, never a really safe one, not like Vancouver-Quilchena which I expect them to hold.

Ontario - Anything is possible, but the Liberals face a real uphill battle to win.  If an election comes this spring Wynne may be able to ride on the honeymoon most new leaders get, but unless there is one called soon, not likely.  An NDP win seems possible but not likely as their vote is extremely concentrated so even if they win the popular vote it won't necessarily mean more seats as they tend to pile up big margins in Northern Ontario, union towns like Windsor and Hamilton and downtown Toronto.  The PCs will most likely win but only with a minority as a lot of Hudak's proposals are a bit too right wing for most.  If the party was a little more centrist, I think they would have little trouble getting a majority.  Its not so much anyone particular policy, but rather the overall tone.  In some ways too bad as I like policies like privatizing the LCBO, allowing beer and wine corner store sales, ending the Beer Store monopoly, right to work laws, privatizing OPG and Hydro One, ending the WSIB monopoly on worker's insurance.  On the other hand I don't support further tax cuts, the welfare reforms seem to go a bit too far, and although I support scrapping all day kindergarten, I don't support cutting 10,000 educational positions.  I also don't support privatizing the OLG as unlike the LCBO there is really no way to make up the lost revenue although I am all for contracting out operations of OLG Casinos as is already the case for the most part.  Also I am opposed to further downloading to the municipalities which have enough financial problems as it is.