Census population estimates 2011-2019 (user search)
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  Census population estimates 2011-2019 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Census population estimates 2011-2019  (Read 181130 times)
Benj
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« on: May 11, 2013, 10:10:33 PM »

Yes, but in fact also the gross interstate migration rate has been undergoing a major decline. It was over 0.03 in 1990 and is now close to 0.015, and this has been a secular decline over the 20-year period, not just due to the recent recession. That decline in rate is enough to more than offset population growth, so even the gross number of interstate migrants is smaller now than in 1990.

http://www.minneapolisfed.org/research/wp/wp697.pdf

Bump re the above to note an interesting new paper here by some Federal Reserve economists exploring possible reasons why the rate of migration has been declining since the 1980's. They find that the shift is not explained just by demographic changes, and explore some possible other explanations, including: that the range of industries and occupations has become more similar across metropolitan areas; that the rise of dual-career couples has made moves more difficult since both partners are unlikely to be looking for new jobs at the same time; and that the structure of work has changed in ways that disincentivize job changes. The last of these is their favored hypothesis.

The last sounds the least likely to me. I'm lacking any data in front of me, but there's definitely been a shift in the labor market over the past 30-40 years (somewhat longer scale, but still) from people entering the labor force at one company and working for that company for their entire lives to people changing jobs every five years or so.
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