Census population estimates 2011-2019

[politicallefty]

Overall, this looks like it could be kinder to D's than the last several reapportionments, assuming that CO and VA keep voting left of the nation through 2020.  And most of the Rust Belt states will have no choice but to eliminate R's.  If any of OH, MI or VA are sent to court they will be D goldmines (PA less so because R's control the court).

That was one of my first thoughts as well. It's been quite some time since Democrats have had anything remotely nearing a friendly apportionment. I didn't think Colorado and Virginia were both on track to gain an additional seat this decade, as it now looks quite possible. Hopefully, California can hold on to some good sustainable growth and finally get its 54th seat. Interestingly, the CA Department of Finance underestimated population growth, which is the opposite compared to the pre-Census estimates.

While I wouldn't be sad to see West Virginia drop down to two seats, I was hoping Montana would have some nice growth to get its second seat back. Any reasonable redistricting would create divide the state East/West, which would give Democrats a huge opportunity in the Western district.

Btw, jimrtex, you didn't leave a comment on Pennsylvania, which is another certainty to lose a seat in 2020.

[politicallefty]

What are the current odds of California getting a 54th seat at the next Census? I know that based on its shear population, it can easily be on the cusp of losing a seat, gaining a seat, or staying steady with minimal population shifts. Obviously, I think California getting its financial situation in order can only benefit good population growth. I'm just curious to know what the trends are leading towards (beyond the vague Northeast and Midwest towards the South and West).

I'm also wondering about Oregon and it's potential sixth seat. Based on what I've seen, it seems rather surprising that CO-08 will happen before OR-06.

[politicallefty]

I've been watching the census estimates throughout the decade and I've seen California move around a bit. To those that pay attention more closely, what are the odds or what will it take for the creation of CA-54?

[politicallefty]

In general terms, California would have to increase from 53/435 of the total population to 54/435 of the population. This means that California would have to increase at 54/53 - 1 or 1.89% faster than the country as a whole. But California is such a large share of the population (almost 1/8), that an 8% increase in California would produce a 1% increase in the total population, even if all the other states were static.

The USA as whole will increase about 7.7% over the decade, and based on projecting the first seven years estimates forward for 10 years, California will grow at 8.5%. But the growth rate in California has dropped the past two years.

In the first five years of the decade, California increased by 345K. 347K, 328K, 354K, and 331K; but in the last two years has only increased by 264K and 240K.

California needed 2.857M increase just to tread water. If the increase for the first five years had been sustained, California would have gained 3.410M, and the surplus of 553K would have gone a long way towards populating another congressional district.

I appreciate your answer. I did read it all. The reason I asked is because I recall looking at Census estimates maybe 2 years ago and it seemed like California was on track for a 54th seat and now suddenly it could actually lose a seat. I realize that bigger states are more prone to the potential of gaining or losing a certain number of seats (i.e. muon noting that CA-53 would be seat 433 and CA-54 would be seat 440).

Do you have or know of a spreadsheet where one could input population numbers to determine the overall seat apportionment?

One thing I do wonder about is if certain states might make their own efforts to ensure the accuracy of the overall count.