Census population estimates 2011-2019

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

We can project the decennial change forward (for states that are losing population share, the value will decline, since it really relative to its current population share, and vice versa for gainers).

Alabama: If no loss in 2020, it will lose in 2030. The drop to 5 will occur in 2060, but possibly 2050.
Alaska: No change - Alaska is growing slower than the US as a whole.
Arizona: Will gain a district every 20 years, but this could be quite irregular. For example if it doesn't gain a district in 2020, it could gain in 2030 and 2040.
Arkansas: Drops to 3 in 2060.
California: Could gain 54th in 2030 or 2040.
Colorado: Gains 8th in 2020 and 9th in 2040.
Connecticut: Loses 5th in 2030.
Delaware: Will get its 2nd seat back in 2070 (Wyoming and Alaska are only states that have never had at least two representatives).
Florida: Will gain two representatives per decade, though like Arizona, this may be irregular (1 some decades or 3 others).
Georgia: Gains 15th in 2040 (Georgia is increasing its lead on North Carolina)
Hawaii: No change (at current rate would gain 3rd seat in 2440).
Idaho: 3rd in 2040 (or perhaps 2050).
Illinois: Could lose 2 in 2030. By 2040 will be behind Georgia, and there will be increasing references to Atlantaland as distinguished from Downstate Georgia.
Indiana: Could lose in 2030, but more likely 2040.
Iowa: Loses in 2080. Des Moines in western district?
Kansas: Could lose in 2040, but 2050 is more likely.
Kentucky: Loses 6th in 2040, though 2050 is possible.
Louisiana: Loses 6th in 2080.
Maine: Loses 2nd in 2050, will they change their electoral vote allocation to 3 electoral districts?
Massachusetts: No losses until 2090.
Michigan: One per decade, but may be unchanged in 2040 or 2050. Michigan drops to 10th this decade, passed by Georgia and North Carolina, but won't drop out of top 10 until passed by Washington or Arizona in 2040 or 2050.
Minnesota: Will not lose another for the next century.
Mississippi: Possibly loses 4th in 2040, certainly by 2050.
Missouri: Loses 8th in 2040.
Montana: Regains 2nd in 2030? Montana is like a swimmer swimming against the current. Their position never changes.
Nebraska: May cling to 3rd indefinitely.
Nevada: Could gain 5th in 2040, particularly if housing bubble abates.
New Hampshire: Loses 2nd in 2060.
New Jersey: Loses 12th in 2030, and 11th in 2050.
New Mexico: Could lose 3rd in 2040.
New York: Should continue to lose one district per decade.
North Carolina: Very solid for 14th district in 2020. Could gain 15th in 2040. If not then, 2050.
North Dakota: Could regain 2nd by 2050, but that assumes continued growth in the Williston Basin.
Ohio: Will continue to lose a district per decade.
Oklahoma: Growing only slightly slower than country as a whole. Could have 5 districts forever.
Oregon: Could gain 7th district in 2080.
Pennsylvania: Will continue to lose a district per decade. Could see a loss of two due to rounding in the next few decades.
Rhode Island: Leads the path for Maine and New Hampshire to a single district.
South Carolina: Could gain 8th in 2050, maybe sooner if Charlotte spillover increases.
South Dakota: Regains 2nd in 2110.
Tennessee: Stuck on 9 forever.
Texas: Will add 3 or 4 each decade. Could surpass California by 2070.
Utah: Will likely gain 5th in 2030.
Vermont: Will likely fall below Wyoming by 2030.
Virginia: Possibility of 12 in 2040, but 2050 more likely.
West Virginia: Will keep 2 until at least 2070.
Wisconsin: Will lose 8th in 2030, as it will probably fall behind Minnesota.
Wyoming: One forever.

Very interesting to see such tepid growth and even the loss of EV's for most of the non sun belt Deep South. I would have assumed that their high black population as well as high levels of religiosity would lead to higher birth rates and levels of population growth than the more secular states. I remember in the 2000's after Bush won a second term, that people said how liberals were losing the demographic war because they were having fewer kids than conservatives.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

What's the likelihood Coronavirus will have a significant impact on the census? I'm not thinking of the worst-case scenario of massive death tolls, so much as the likelihood that the census response rate is lower and more variable than usual and that the economic dislocation means fewer people move between states.

Yea the great recession really slowed down the Sun Belt's growth rate.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

I would be shocked if OH didn't lose a congressional seat this cycle. Also, I think VA might actually gain another electoral vote, as NOVA is historically undercounted, but it'll be a close call.

Why are people hyping up NOVA's growth when VA has not gained a EV in a very long time? If NOVA was another Atlanta, Phoenix, Dallas or Houston then VA would be gaining EV's like AZ, TX, FL or GA.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

New York is losing population, but it is still the place for a lot of people.

NY has the lowest homeownership rate in the country, home prices should be lower, but NY is a hard place to buy a home, especially NYC/LI/Westchester suburbs.

Upstate NY, not so bad---

Some people say that NYers are moving to red states like GA, NC, and bringing their liberal politics with them.

We will see.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/12/23/new-york-population-decline-coronavirus-house-seats/4023477001/

People from NJ/NY have been moving in large numbers to FL for decades, yet FL is trending right. There always huge amounts of Yankees fans at any FL baseball game.