Census population estimates 2011-2019

[Sol]

What are the stats for international % of growth in a state? I bet an unusually high percentage of migration to MN is international.

[Sol]

What are the stats for international % of growth in a state? I bet an unusually high percentage of migration to MN is international.

Minnesota's international migration is 2.6 per 1000, a little lower than the national average of 3.1 per 1000. It has net domestic outmigration of -1.2.

Huh, I thought it'd be higher with all the refugee resettlement.

[Sol]

When Maryland gain a district?

[Sol]

Since I have 2018 estimates for population, let's (wrongly) assume that losses in 2019 and 2020 are evenly distributed across the state and NY loses 2 districts. 19,530,000 / 25 seats = 781k per district

Nassau + Suffolk = 3.6 seats
Nassau + Suffolk + Queens = 6.5 seats which is pretty much the current map, no?
LI + NYC = 14.3 seats - which is 1 seat overpopulated
LI + NYC + Westchester + Rockland = almost exactly 16 seats, again 1 seat overpopulated

Something's got to go in Brooklyn, Manhattan, or possibly the Bronx.

Considering the fact that The Establishment in NY hates AOC, NY-14 would probably be the obvious cut no?

[Sol]

Does anyone want to take any guesses as to what the biggest and most surprising differences will be between the 2019 Population Estimates (or the way things are headed based on those) and the 2020 Census Results? Such as perhaps a state with a far higher or lower population than projected in the several hundreds of thousands?

Like happened with Georgia between 2009 and 2010:

At the time of the 2000 Census (April 1, 2010), Georgia had a population of 8,186,453.

The U.S. Census Bureau projected that Georgia had a population of 9,829,211 on July 1, 2019.

The 2010 Census (April 1, 2010) showed that Georgia actually had a population of 9,687,653.

It isn't likely that Georgia actually lost 150,000 people between 2009 and 2010, and when the Census Bureau released its final intercensal tables (showing their population estimates of every state between 2000 and 2010), they estimated Georgia's actual population in 2009 was 9,620,846 (208,365 lower than the initial 2009 estimate released before the census).

What are the chances these estimates turn out to miss the mark by such high amounts?

New York probably will be lower than estimated, due to Covid/rich people filling out the census in the places they fled to.

[Sol]

Does anyone want to take any guesses as to what the biggest and most surprising differences will be between the 2019 Population Estimates (or the way things are headed based on those) and the 2020 Census Results? Such as perhaps a state with a far higher or lower population than projected in the several hundreds of thousands?

Like happened with Georgia between 2009 and 2010:

At the time of the 2000 Census (April 1, 2010), Georgia had a population of 8,186,453.

The U.S. Census Bureau projected that Georgia had a population of 9,829,211 on July 1, 2019.

The 2010 Census (April 1, 2010) showed that Georgia actually had a population of 9,687,653.

It isn't likely that Georgia actually lost 150,000 people between 2009 and 2010, and when the Census Bureau released its final intercensal tables (showing their population estimates of every state between 2000 and 2010), they estimated Georgia's actual population in 2009 was 9,620,846 (208,365 lower than the initial 2009 estimate released before the census).

What are the chances these estimates turn out to miss the mark by such high amounts?

New York probably will be lower than estimated, due to Covid/rich people filling out the census in the places they fled to.

I think you a) overestimate how many people left the city and b) overestimate how many left the state as opposed to going upstate/to Long Island.

NY could lose 2 districts, but I doubt a massive share of the variance is covid-related.

Well that was also meant to include people dying.

[Sol]

Fresh 2020 Census Count numbers would be out today, by law, usually.

But not this year.

The Bureau said yesterday that the deadline will not be met and while not mentioning a date of release, the new numbers will likely be out between February and April.

Just talking for my state, there's a big problem with that.

State legislature shuts up shop for business in April, meaning if the Census doesn't release data until April, you'd have to wait until the 2022 session for the legislature to pass a bill with the new districts for federal and state. But people are required to file for primaries in January and February.

That’s really not the Census Bureau’s problem .... (They had enough on their own).

It’s Indiana’s problem.

IN and it’s legislature could also work in September, right ? Other people have to work the whole year as well and not stop in April.

Well how it always worked in the past is the Census was released on time and they released new districts in a year that ends in 1, all complete by April.

They could have a special session later in the year to do it, but that means the state has to spend extra money not previously earmarked because the federal government bureaucrats can't meet a date of release. It's okay, we can just send the Census Bureau a bill for the costs, right?

What was the census bureau supposed to do? Do a rushed job and give the states messed up census data?