Census population estimates 2011-2019

[krazen1211]

Edit: This thread has been assembled from the separate discussions on official census estimates released this decade. muon2

http://www.census.gov/newsroom/releases/archives/population/cb12-250.html


The 10 Fastest-Growing States from July 1, 2011, to July 1, 2012
        Percent Change
1.   North Dakota   2.17
2.   District of Columbia   2.15
3.   Texas   1.67
4.   Wyoming   1.60
5.   Utah   1.45
6.   Nevada   1.43
7.   Colorado   1.39
8.   Arizona   1.33
9.   Florida   1.23
10.   South Dakota   1.19

[krazen1211]

Based on jimtrex's post I don't see how Arizona gains a seat. Colorado might.

At a guess:

RI: -1
CA: 1
CO: 1
FL: 1
IL: -1
MI: -1
MN: -1
NY: -1
NC: 1
OH: -1
PA: -1
TX: 3
VA: 1
WV: -1


Alabama and Oregon appear to be competing for that last seat.

[krazen1211]

So, thinking about this in partisan terms:

RI: -1D

CA: +1D (new majority Hispanic seat)

CO: +1D

FL: Probably +1D (a court would require an additional Hispanic district under FDF)

IL: Probably -1R (although a court would draw -1D due to Chicago population loss)

MI: -1D (although in court at least 2 seats would flip from R+ to D+)

MN: -1R or -1Peterson

NY: Fair Fight or -1R

NC: +1R (will need to make McIntyre's seat permanently D for it to work, though)

OH: -1R

PA: Are they crazy enough to try -1D?  Probably a Fair Fight otherwise

TX: +2R +1D (or +3R if VRA doesn't apply to redistricting after next year)

VA: +1D

WV: -1R (don't think Rahall is still in WV-03 in 2020)

Colorado I think ends up 6D 2R if they are drawing a partisan map. Otherwise Coffman gets a safe seat in Douglas County.

Florida has no place to put a new Hispanic seat. They just put one in Orlando after putting one last decade in Miami, and the Miami districts already extend into other counties.  It's more likely to be R leaning in the Gulf Coast and they'll split off the Keys; however Garcia might get a packed seat if he survives the decade.

[krazen1211]

Here's my annual projection from the new estimates. I used the July 2012 estimates and the April 2010 Census base to get an annual growth rate. This correctly accounts for the 2 and a quarter year period between the Census and the estimate. I then applied the annual growth rate to the 2010 reapportionment population to get the 2020 projection. This accounts for the extra overseas population used in reapportionment but not for redistricting. Ten years is a long stretch for a simple model like this, but here are the projected changes.

CA +1
CO +1
FL +1
IL -1
MI -1
MN -1
NY -1
NC +1
OH -1
PA -1
RI -1
TX +3
VA +1
WV -1

None of these have changed since the 2011 estimates were released last year. There is some shuffling in the bubble seats. The bubble seats in this projection are based on the last five awarded and the next five in line.
The last five awarded are VA-12, CO-8, AL-7, TX-39, and CA-54 (#435).
The next five in line are NY-27, WV-3, OR-6, MN-8, AZ-10.

Yes, I did an identical calculation more or less.

[krazen1211]

As of right now NC has taken a 14th seat from Minnesota per this link

[krazen1211]

As of right now NC has taken a 14th seat from Minnesota per this link

The link gives some sort of error message for me.

Hmm. Try this one. It's just an apportionment calculator.

Link


I did check the apportionment both based on a hypothetical 2013 reapportionment (which results in the NC 14th seat) and exponentially multiplying out 2020 numbers, which gives you what you posted.

[krazen1211]

CO +1
FL +1
IL -1
MI -1
MN -1
NC +1
OH -1
PA -1
RI -1
TX +3
VA +1
WV -1

Sean Trende has:

2020:CO+1 seat, FL+1, MT+1 (!!), NC+1, TX+2, VA+1, IL-1, MI-1, NY-1, OH-1, PA-1, RI-1 (!!), WV-1

[krazen1211]

I merely cut and pasted his message.

[krazen1211]

Illinois losing 2 Congressional districts could put a damper on the ruthless gerrymander.

[krazen1211]

1. TX - 25,145,561 --> 28,304,596; +12.56%
2. ND - 672,591 --> 755,393; +12.31%
3. UT - 2,763,885 --> 3,101,833; +12.23%
4. FL - 18,801,310 -->20,984,400; +11.61%
5. CO - 5,029,196 --> 5,607,154; +11.49%
6. NV - 2,700,551 --> 2,998,039; +11.02%
7. WA - 6,724,540 --> 7,405,743; +10.13%
8. AZ - 6,392,017 --> 7,016,270; +9.77%
9. ID   - 1,567,582 --> 1,716,943; +9.53%
10. SC - 4,625,364 --> 5,024,369; +8.63%
11. OR - 3,831,074 --> 4,142,776; +8.14%
12. NC - 9,535,483 --> 10,273,419; +7.74%
13. GA - 9,687,653 --> 10,429,379; +7.66%
14. DE - 897,934 --> 961,939; +7.13%
15. SD - 814,180 --> 869,666; +6.81%
16. MT - 989,415 --> 1,050,493; +6.17%
17. CA - 37,253,956 --> 39,536,653; +6.13%
18. VA - 8,001,024 --> 8,470,020; +5.86%
19. TN - 6,346,105 --> 6,715,984; +5.83%

50 States + DC - 308,745,538 --> 325,719,178; +5.50%



All the states growing faster than the US as a whole, by partisan lean.

12/19 Republican.

Trump won 30/51 (DC) states. Big growth in favor of the GOP. Trump was +500k votes in Florida compared to Romney.

[krazen1211]

the +500k was like because Florida's population was higher in 2016 than in 2012

The Dem party gained half that. Big swing towards the GOP.