Census population estimates 2011-2019

[Skill and Chance]

So, thinking about this in partisan terms:

RI: -1D

CA: +1D (new majority Hispanic seat)

CO: +1D

FL: Probably +1D (a court would require an additional Hispanic district under FDF)

IL: Probably -1R (although a court would draw -1D due to Chicago population loss)

MI: -1D (although in court at least 2 seats would flip from R+ to D+)

MN: -1R or -1Peterson

NY: Fair Fight or -1R

NC: +1R (will need to make McIntyre's seat permanently D for it to work, though)

OH: -1R

PA: Are they crazy enough to try -1D?  Probably a Fair Fight otherwise

TX: +2R +1D (or +3R if VRA doesn't apply to redistricting after next year)

VA: +1D

WV: -1R (don't think Rahall is still in WV-03 in 2020)

[Skill and Chance]

Overall, this looks like it could be kinder to D's than the last several reapportionments, assuming that CO and VA keep voting left of the nation through 2020.  And most of the Rust Belt states will have no choice but to eliminate R's.  If any of OH, MI or VA are sent to court they will be D goldmines (PA less so because R's control the court).

[Skill and Chance]

New state population estimates will be released in ca. 1 month !

My prediction:

316.159.818

315,712,013

NC+1, MN-1 remains only apportionment change, until 2014 when Texas gains from Michigan.

Minnesota has already lost a US House Seat in this decade?  I thought Minnesota might stave off a lost US House Seat in this decade since it ranks 16th in population growth so far in 2011-2012. I know before the 2010 Census came out people thought Minnesota was gonna lose a House Seat to Colorado but it didn't happen. Now it looks likes it has happened. Maybe Colorado could have gained a seat from Missouri and Minnesota would have kept 8 House Seats would have been the scenario that I thought could have played out. Missouri's population growth has been miserable in 2011-2012.

If there was independent rounding, Minnesota would have had 7 representatives in 2010, since it had less than 7.5/435 of the total population.  But the same was true for FL, CA, WA, and TX.  These 4 states along with MN were apportioned an extra seat to make the total 435.

Based on the ranking:
429 GA
430 SC
431 FL
432 CA
433 WA
434 MN
435 TX
=====
436 NC
437 MO
438 NY
439 NJ
440 MT
441 LA

To keep its 8th seat, MN has to avoid being passed by two states, or alternatively pass some states ahead of it.

If you think of it as a finish of a long distance race, MN is in a pack with some fast finishers, and it just barely kept ahead of NC and TX.  If the race was another 100 yards TX and NC would have caught MN.   Also from 2010 to 2012, MN was 28th fastest, which is just mediocre.

Because of this cluster of fast gainers just above the threshold, and mostly slow gainers below, there have been few changes so far.   TX easily went past MN into 435, and then NC gained its 14th seat and the expense of MN.

By the time the slow growing states drop down to the level of MN, faster growing states have caught up.

2014: TX gains 37th (essentially it has lapped MN), MI loses 14th.
2015: VA gains 12th, PA loses 18th.
2016: TX gains 38th, RI loses 2nd.
2017: FL gains 28th, IL loses 18th.
2018: CO gains 8th, OH loses 16th.
2020: TX gains 39th, CA gains 54th, WV loses 3rd, NY loses 27th.

By 2020, MN will not yet have caught WV and NY, and OR will have surpassed it.

Based on projecting April 2010 census to July 2012 estimate forward to April 2020, Minnesota will have grown 6.5%.  But the country as a whole will have increased 7.6%.  Minnesota has to keep pace with the country as a whole to keep its 8th seat.

It's interesting that so many seats will come down to the wire.  How much have projections changed since the 2010 census?  I'm surprised to see that AZ-10 isn't even on the short list?  Is AL-07 still in danger?

[Skill and Chance]

Can most of the pre-2020 changes be considered sure things?  If growth fell off so that the decade ended with projected 2019 populations instead of projected 2020 populations, we would still have the new FL, VA and CO seats and the first 2 new TX seats?  In your mind are any of these in doubt?

[Skill and Chance]

Does this suggest any changes in predicted apportionment for 2021?  It certainly looks like CO-08 became more likely and holding WV-03 became less likely.

[Skill and Chance]

2012 to 2013 growth population:

MA really sticks out.  Also MN and NM.  Why would NM be lagging?

Over average growth: 279
Under average growth: 248
On par growth: 11

[Skill and Chance]

Really surprised at VA being below average considering the Amazon HQ2 decision in late 2018. Of course, it could be statistical noise - @cinyc do you have at hand the VA growth estimates and the national estimates?

Amazon hasn't really begun hiring for their HQ2 campus, and while they've ramped up hiring for the AWS offices, there hasn't been the seismic impact on population the full-fledged campus will have. The HQ2 location in Arlington isn't slated to be fully completed until Q1 2023 so it might be a while to see a noticeable effect.

VA now cycles with federal spending/employment growth as a % of the total US economy.  That was unusually high during 2010-14 and has fallen dramatically since then as the rest of the economy took off.  IMO that's all you need to explain VA last decade.

[Skill and Chance]

One interesting aspect of these estimates is that ID-03 now looks like a serious possibility for 2031.  Idaho, like Montana, has a redistricting commission in their state constitution, and the recent growth has overwhelmingly been in Boise, meaning a hypothetical compact ID-03 should be competitive to even Lean Dem by that time.

[Skill and Chance]

California Texas Florida New York Pennsylvania Illinois Ohio Georgia North Carolina Michigan New Jersey Virginia Washington Arizona Massachusetts Tennessee Indiana Missouri Maryland Wisconsin Colorado Minnesota South Carolina Alabama Louisiana Kentucky Oregon Oklahoma Connecticut Utah Iowa Nevada Arkansas Mississippi Kansas New Mexico Nebraska West Virginia Idaho Hawaii New Hampshire Maine Montana Rhode Island Delaware South Dakota North Dakota Alaska Vermont Wyoming

39,512,223 28,995,881 21,477,737 19,453,561 12,801,989 12,671,821 11,689,100 10,617,423 10,488,084 9,986,857 8,882,190 8,535,519 7,614,893 7,278,717 6,892,503 6,829,174 6,732,219 6,137,428 6,045,680 5,822,434 5,758,736 5,639,632 5,148,714 4,903,185 4,648,794 4,467,673 4,217,737 3,956,971 3,565,287 3,205,958 3,155,070 3,080,156 3,017,825 2,976,149 2,913,314 2,096,829 1,934,408 1,792,147 1,787,065 1,415,872 1,359,711 1,344,212 1,068,778 1,059,361 973,764 884,659 762,062 731,545 623,989 578,759

52.589 35.497 26.545 27.355 17.932 18.113 16.285 13.677 13.461 13.953 12.411 11.294 9.493 9.024 9.243 8.959 9.153 8.454 8.150 8.028 7.100 7.487 6.529 6.748 6.400 6.126 5.408 5.296 5.045 3.902 4.301 3.812 4.116 4.190 4.028 2.907 2.578 2.616 2.213 1.920 1.858 1.875 1.397 1.486 1.268 1.149 0.949 1.003 0.883 0.796

52.476 38.510 28.525 25.836 17.002 16.830 15.524 14.101 13.929 13.264 11.797 11.336 10.113 9.667 9.154 9.070 8.941 8.151 8.029 7.733 7.648 7.490 6.838 6.512 6.174 5.934 5.602 5.255 4.735 4.258 4.190 4.091 4.008 3.953 3.869 2.785 2.569 2.380 2.373 1.880 1.806 1.785 1.419 1.407 1.293 1.175 1.012 0.972 0.829 0.769

Goodbye 53rd Good for gain of 3 Good for 2 27th is gone, 26th hanging on 18th is gone 18th is long gone Will just slip blow the threshold, goodbye 16th 14th is guaranteed 14th is gone 12th could be lost in 2030 Falls short of 12th 10th is certain Could save 9th in 2030 8th safe for now, but most likely gone in 2030 Guaranteed 8th Highly likely loss of 8th Farewell 7th 6th all but certain 5th could be lost in 2030 3rd safe for now 3rd is history Possible 3rd in 2030 2nd likely Loss of 2nd all but guaranteed

Looks like LA could be at risk of losing LA-06 at the 2030 census?

[Skill and Chance]

I would be shocked if OH didn't lose a congressional seat this cycle. Also, I think VA might actually gain another electoral vote, as NOVA is historically undercounted, but it'll be a close call.

It would have to be a massive several 100K undercount for VA to gain.  VA actually fell below nationwide growth in the second half of the decade. 

[Skill and Chance]

Wouldn't be a massive shock in a couple of decades' time. Barring significant change to the current party coalitions, it'd be pretty difficult to make the second seat Democratic without going for some extremely squirrelly lines.

Yes, in general any population growth in Western states helps Dems in mapping and any population growth in Southern (and a DE-02 would be very Southern-flavored) areas helps Reps.  Texas is ambiguous.  This has to do with the prevalence of small towns in outlying areas.

[Skill and Chance]

I would be shocked if OH didn't lose a congressional seat this cycle. Also, I think VA might actually gain another electoral vote, as NOVA is historically undercounted, but it'll be a close call.

Why are people hyping up NOVA's growth when VA has not gained a EV in a very long time? If NOVA was another Atlanta, Phoenix, Dallas or Houston then VA would be gaining EV's like AZ, TX, FL or GA.

Well, federal employment there got a major boost from the early 2000's defense buildup and late 2000's stimulus spending and many people (myself included at the time) tried to project that forward indefinitely.  In practice, NOVA's growth over and above nationwide growth ended with the sequester.  Early Trump admin federal cuts may have turned it to an absolute decline in population by 2018 in some counties.  However, it's possible growth could pick up again if there is more federal hiring to respond to the current crisis. 

[Skill and Chance]

I would be shocked if OH didn't lose a congressional seat this cycle. Also, I think VA might actually gain another electoral vote, as NOVA is historically undercounted, but it'll be a close call.

Why are people hyping up NOVA's growth when VA has not gained a EV in a very long time? If NOVA was another Atlanta, Phoenix, Dallas or Houston then VA would be gaining EV's like AZ, TX, FL or GA.

NOVA is growing pretty fast.  Loudoun county is one of the fastest growing counties in the country.  But Fairfax has stalled out.  Also, I think Virginia always has net domestic out migration more than most other southern states so NOVA has to make up for that while also offsetting population loss.  I suspect some of the rural population loss in states like Georgia and NC is just being shifted to other areas of the state whereas rural population loss in Virginia is going elsewhere.  But yeah, it's definitely not growing as fast as Atlanta, Phoenix, or the Texas cities. 

People tend to hype up NOVA not because it's growth is that massive but because its growth has shifted the politics of the state massively.  It's having a more pronounced effect than Atlanta is with respect to Georgia.   

To put this in perspective, there are several rural VA counties that had a higher population at the 1st US census in 1790 than they do today.

[Skill and Chance]

So New York takes a second loss instead of Alabama, and Florida's second gain is confirmed.  Overall, Republicans did about as well as they possibly could have. 

[Skill and Chance]

Normally the Census would be releasing the actual 2020 Census apportionment data next week, and not the Jul 1, 2020 estimates. Due to the expected delay in the release of the apportionment data, we can look at these estimates that do not include any 2020 Census data. It will be interesting to compare this to the actual Census population when they are released.

So, here's my annual projection from the new estimates. I used these July 2020 estimates and the April 2010 Census base to get an annual growth rate. This accounts for a 10 and a quarter year period between the 2010 Census and the estimate. I then applied the annual growth rate to the 2010 reapportionment population to get the 2020 projection. This accounts for the extra overseas population used in reapportionment but not for redistricting (It doesn't adjust for the new distinction between deployed vs stationed).

AZ +1
CA -1
CO +1
FL +2
IL -1
MI -1
MN -1
MT +1
NY -2
NC +1
OH -1
OR +1
PA -1
RI -1
TX +3
WV -1

AL and NY have switched seats compared to last year, so that AL would have no change and NY would lose 2 seats. I tested the possibility that inclusion of the Covid-19 fatalities in NY between April 1 and July 1 would affect the result. I added the July 1 NY fatality count to my April 1 projection, and it made NY closer to AL but did not change the overall projection.

The bubble seats in this projection are based on the last five awarded and the next five in line.
The last five awarded are IL-17, CA-52, FL-29, TX-39, and AL-7 (#435).
The next five in line are NY-26, OH-16, MN-8, CA-53, and VA-14.

Hmmm... so VA-12 could be back in the game for 2030?  It's interesting how countercyclical VA is. 

[Skill and Chance]

On a side note, one rank change did occur. Idaho's population surpassed West Virginia's.

ID-03 here we come in 2031?  They have a commission so an all-Boise seat is basically assured.   

[Skill and Chance]

Population decline in New York and Illinois is now approaching levels you see in Eastern Europe, both states lost over 0.6% of their population in 2019-20, kind of amazing NY once had 45 districts and now will have 25 after 2020, just a complete collapse in the post ww2 era.

How does it compare to the exodus from the Great Plains states during the 1930's and 40's?

[Skill and Chance]

Do you all think Minnesota has a good chance to regain the seat it lost in 2020 at the time of the 2030 census?

Yes and I also think it'll pass Wisconsin in population so MN will gain back an 8th seat even as WI loses one.

Which states are in most danger of losing seats in 2031 if current growth/loss continues?

[Skill and Chance]

The 10 fastest growing states between mid-2019 and mid-2020 were:

2.1% ID
1.8% AZ
1.5% NV
1.5% UT
1.3% TX
1.2% SC
1.1% FL
1.1% WA
1.0% DE
1.0% MT

The 10 fastest declining states between mid-2019 and mid-2020 were:

-0.2% CA
-0.2% MI
-0.3% CT
-0.3% LA
-0.3% AK
-0.4% MS
-0.6% WV
-0.6% HI
-0.6% IL
-0.7% NY

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2020/estimates-population-housing-units.html

Maybe a result of wealthy NYers and preppers moving to ID and MT because they think the apocalypse is coming ?

The biggest decliners include some states that have been stable in congressional apportionment for a while.  How close are MS, HI, and CT to losing a CD?

[Skill and Chance]

Normally the Census would be releasing the actual 2020 Census apportionment data next week, and not the Jul 1, 2020 estimates. Due to the expected delay in the release of the apportionment data, we can look at these estimates that do not include any 2020 Census data. It will be interesting to compare this to the actual Census population when they are released.

So, here's my annual projection from the new estimates. I used these July 2020 estimates and the April 2010 Census base to get an annual growth rate. This accounts for a 10 and a quarter year period between the 2010 Census and the estimate. I then applied the annual growth rate to the 2010 reapportionment population to get the 2020 projection. This accounts for the extra overseas population used in reapportionment but not for redistricting (It doesn't adjust for the new distinction between deployed vs stationed).

AZ +1
CA -1
CO +1
FL +2
IL -1
MI -1
MN -1
MT +1
NY -2
NC +1
OH -1
OR +1
PA -1
RI -1
TX +3
WV -1

AL and NY have switched seats compared to last year, so that AL would have no change and NY would lose 2 seats. I tested the possibility that inclusion of the Covid-19 fatalities in NY between April 1 and July 1 would affect the result. I added the July 1 NY fatality count to my April 1 projection, and it made NY closer to AL but did not change the overall projection.

The bubble seats in this projection are based on the last five awarded and the next five in line.
The last five awarded are IL-17, CA-52, FL-29, TX-39, and AL-7 (#435).
The next five in line are NY-26, OH-16, MN-8, CA-53, and VA-12.

What numbers are we talking about for AL and NY to switch back with this estimate vis a vis the actual census figures? Is it 5,000 people or 15,000 people? Yes I know the final numbers for all the states matter.

On the NY side I added 32K to see what the effect of the pandemic would be on these July estimates. It cut the margin with AL in half, so another 32K would get it ahead on April 1. On the AL side if they have 8K fewer, assuming the 32K added to NY for covid then NY would get seat 435. These projections assume the same relative overseas military populations. In 2010 that adjustment was 23K for AL and 43K for NY. Census 2020 is changing this so that the adjustment I described would apply to those stationed outside the US, but those deployed outside the US while stationed in the US will count at their station address. I don't know how that split is for different states.

Also, how much of a sure thing is TX-39 with the higher than usual uncertainty this year?