Census population estimates 2011-2019

[ProgressiveModerate]

I would be shocked if OH didn't lose a congressional seat this cycle. Also, I think VA might actually gain another electoral vote, as NOVA is historically undercounted, but it'll be a close call.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I would be shocked if OH didn't lose a congressional seat this cycle. Also, I think VA might actually gain another electoral vote, as NOVA is historically undercounted, but it'll be a close call.

It would have to be a massive several 100K undercount for VA to gain.  VA actually fell below nationwide growth in the second half of the decade.  

Wow that's actually suprising, I wonder why that was, I thought VA was growing faster than the rest of the country overall, while the NE and Rust Belt were shrinking. If VA didn't gain and Republicans held onto OH-16 and AL-7 this cycle woukd be decent for them. I wonder if DE will ever gain a district because it's growing at a decent rate and is already at 950k people.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Could COVID cost NY another EV? People seem to be moving ou of the state, and at least 20k people have died and this number is growing

[ProgressiveModerate]

Any updated estimates on the electoral reappointments? So far, the only things that seem set in stone are that OR, AZ, CO, NC will gain 1, FL will gain at least 1, and TX will gain at least 2 while, While NY loses at least 1, PA, IL, RI, WV, MI all lose 1. The big question marks seem to be CA, MT, AL, OH, MN, VA, NY (2nd district), FL (2nd district), TX (3rd district). Is this an accurate summary of where things stand?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Any updated estimates on the electoral reappointments? So far, the only things that seem set in stone are that OR, AZ, CO, NC will gain 1, FL will gain at least 1, and TX will gain at least 2 while, While NY loses at least 1, PA, IL, RI, WV, MI all lose 1. The big question marks seem to be CA, MT, AL, OH, MN, VA, NY (2nd district), FL (2nd district), TX (3rd district). Is this an accurate summary of where things stand?

I wasn't aware that Virginia is on the cusp... hasn't population growth in VA slowed substantially.

I think at the start of the decade it seemed well on track to gain a 12th district but population growth has slowed a bit since then. With that being said, NOVA is historically undercounted so there's still a small chance it gains, but more likely than not it just stays at 11 for now.

[ProgressiveModerate]

According to my calculations

Seat 420 is NY-25
Seat 421 is NC-14
Seat 422 is TX-38
Seat 423 is AZ-10
Seat 424 is CA-51
Seat 425 is WI-8
Seat 426 is CO-8
Seat 427 is PA-17
Seat 428 is OR-6
Seat 429 is NJ-12
Seat 430 is CA-52
Seat 431 is MT-2
Seat 432 is IL-17
Seat 433 is FL-29
Seat 434 is TX-39
Seat 435 is AL-7
----------
Seat 436 is NY-26
Seat 437 is MN-8
Seat 438 is OH-16
Seat 439 is CA-53
Seat 440 is VA-12
Seat 441 is RI-2
Seat 442 is ID-3
Seat 443 is TX-40
Seat 444 is GA-15
Seat 445 is MI-14
Seat 446 is FL-30
Seat 447 is CA-54
Seat 448 is WA-11
Seat 449 is NC-15
Seat 450 is PA-18

[ProgressiveModerate]

According to my calculations

Seat 420 is NY-25
Seat 421 is NC-14
Seat 422 is TX-38
Seat 423 is AZ-10
Seat 424 is CA-51
Seat 425 is WI-8
Seat 426 is CO-8
Seat 427 is PA-17
Seat 428 is OR-6
Seat 429 is NJ-12
Seat 430 is CA-52
Seat 431 is MT-2
Seat 432 is IL-17
Seat 433 is FL-29
Seat 434 is TX-39
Seat 435 is AL-7
----------
Seat 436 is NY-26
Seat 437 is MN-8
Seat 438 is OH-16
Seat 439 is CA-53
Seat 440 is VA-12
Seat 441 is RI-2
Seat 442 is ID-3
Seat 443 is TX-40
Seat 444 is GA-15
Seat 445 is MI-14
Seat 446 is FL-30
Seat 447 is CA-54
Seat 448 is WA-11
Seat 449 is NC-15
Seat 450 is PA-18

Idaho's third district has become a virtual certainty by 2030, and it's actually shockingly close to getting one this cycle!

Only 30k people away from getting a third seat, and this is while it gained an average of 26k people every year this decade, and also gained 35k people every year during the last five years!

I know, I was pretty shocked too when I realized how close ID had come. If somehow the estimates are way off and ID did pull an upset in 2020 and gain a 3rd seat, that would be pretty epic, though from a political standpoint, that would likely be another GOP seat. By 2030 though, a 3rd district would likely have to be Boise based.