Census population estimates 2011-2019

[cinyc]

I'd imagine growth slowed down significantly in North Dakota.  The boom is over for the time being so I'd imagine many have left the state again.

Minnesota is probably around +0.7%.  Domestic migration continues negative even though millennials are moving to the state (esp the 25-34 age group).  It is being offset by baby boomers leaving.

The county population estimates will be even more interesting in North Dakota and Texas when they are released.  Many of the fastest-growing counties in the past few years have been in the oil patch in those states.  Will those become the fastest-declining counties now?  Statewide, will North Dakota just have slowed growth or has it gone in reverse?  The economies of the non-oil patch cities like Fargo are still vibrant, so growth probably isn't negative statewide yet.

[cinyc]

Also, what has not been mentioned so far:

North Dakota actually remained the fastest-growing state between 2014-15, despite the downturn in the oil/gas sector in the past year.

ND grew by 2.3%, followed by CO/DC/NV (each +1.9%)

North Dakota's growth rate from 2014-15 was about the same as the growth rate from 2013-14.  So much for growth slowing down.

The only state to lose population since the 2010 Census is West Virginia.  (Puerto Rico has also lost over 250,000 residents over that time period.)  Maine and Vermont grew by less than 1,000 people over that time frame.  Meanwhile, Texas added more residents than live in many states - over 2.3 million.  

I think D.C. is actually the second-fastest growing state or territory over that time period, behind North Dakota.  If North Dakota growth starts to fall soon, D.C. might end up being the fastest-growing jurisdiction this decade.

[cinyc]

Hmmm... could the oil crash put TX-39 in doubt again by 2020?  And I'm surprised MT is holding up so well given the collapse in ND.  VA-12 now seems quite unlikely, especially with Republicans taking control of the federal budget.  IL losing 2 CDs would really be something.

There is little reason for Montana's population to collapse.  Montana's growth isn't one-tenth as dependent on oil as North Dakota's.  Besides, the portion of eastern Montana near North Dakota is sparsely populated.  Its oil patch cities are few and far between - Sidney and perhaps Glendive, but even categorizing Glendive as an oil patch city is a stretch. 

[cinyc]

I want to see if the (until recently) fast-growing oil counties, like McKenzie and Williams, ND, have started to lose population or are just growing more slowly.

[cinyc]

When do the county subdivision estimates come out?  June?

[cinyc]

When do the county subdivision estimates come out?  June?

May.

Technically it is incorporated place and minor civil division (i.e. legal entities).

Great! 

Hopefully, I'll find the time to update the maps I made last year, like the 2014-2015 Percentage Change Map for those incorporated places, minor civil divisions (and CDPs?).

[cinyc]

When do the county subdivision estimates come out?  June?

May.

Technically it is incorporated place and minor civil division (i.e. legal entities).

According to Census' calendar, the incorporated place and minor civil division population estimates will be released to the public on Thursday, May 25.  It looks like there will be an embargoed release to the media on Tuesday, May 23.

[cinyc]

Census has released their November 2016 Voting and Registration Supplement.

From what I've read elsewhere on the Internet but not independently verified, overall Hispanic turnout was slightly down in 2016 versus 2012, even though more Hispanics voted due to Hispanic VAP growth.

[cinyc]

2016 city and town population estimates come out on Thursday (an embargoed press release and graphic supposedly went out to the media today).  Any predictions or things you want to see?

I'm interested in population declines in Western North Dakota, and how much Upstate New York Cities proper have lost population over the past year.

[cinyc]

The embargo on the city estimates has been lifted, and various news websites are filing stories on the population estimates.  But the database and press release isn't available yet on census.gov.

Here's an alternate link to search for city results from Cleveland.com.

Yes, Seattle topped 700,000 residents.

The Top 10 U.S. Cities
1. New York: 8,537,673
2. Los Angeles: 3,976,322
3. Chicago: 2,704,958
4. Houston: 2,303,482
5. Phoenix: 1,615,017
6. Philadelphia: 1,567,872
7. San Antonio: 1,492,510
8. San Diego: 1,406,630
9. Dallas: 1,317,929
10. San Jose: 1,025,350

[cinyc]

Census' press release is here.  The rest of their press kit is here. The actual data will be available in the morning, before 10AM.

From the press release:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Things to look for:
Phoenix passes Philadelphia (4k difference)
San Francisco passes Jacksonville (4k difference)
Columbus passes Indianapolis (3k difference)
DC passes Detroit (5k difference), as Detroit is still declining

Phoenix passed Philadelphia.
San Francisco did not pass Jacksonville.
Columbus passed Indianapolis.
DC passed Detroit, which is still declining.  Detroit reportedly fell to 23 or 24, depending on which newspaper you believe.

[cinyc]

I've made my maps using the 2016 Estimates Data.  Please let me know if there are any obvious errors. There may be a separate post analyzing trends in the future:

2015-2016 Percentage Change in  Cities, Towns, and County Remainders Population
2010-2016 Percentage Change versus 2010 Census
2010-2016 Percentage Change versus 2010 Estimates Base (takes into account annexations and the like)

2015-2016 Numerical Change in  Cities, Towns, and County Remainders Population
2010-2016 Numerical Change versus 2010 Census
2010-2016 Numerical Change versus 2010 Estimates Base

[cinyc]

I've made my maps using the 2016 Estimates Data.  Please let me know if there are any obvious errors. There may be a separate post analyzing trends in the future:

2010-2016 Percentage Change versus 2010 Census

Do annexations cause "Balance of X County" to drop? Looking at Dekalb, GA in particular.

In the 2010 census version of the map, yes.   But not in the version versus 2010 population estimates, which controls for annexations and the like.  IIRC, the balance of Dekalb, GA dropped because of the creation of a new city.  We had the same issue in the 2010-15 version of the map.

[cinyc]

Cinyc, in Arkansas, what are you going to do with College City located in Lawrence County.  It consolidated with Walnut Ridge in May of last year.  It was in the final phases of occurring when the data was estimated.

Could you possibly combine the two on one of your maps to show that this occurred?

I could estimate things manually when I get a chance, but if Census hasn't caught up with the change yet, I'm not going to change the shapefile.  I used the most recent Census shapefile for each type (County, MCD and Place).

[cinyc]

Cinyc, in Arkansas, what are you going to do with College City located in Lawrence County.  It consolidated with Walnut Ridge in May of last year.  It was in the final phases of occurring when the data was estimated.

Could you possibly combine the two on one of your maps to show that this occurred?

I could estimate things manually when I get a chance, but if Census hasn't caught up with the change yet, I'm not going to change the shapefile.  I used the most recent Census shapefile for each type (County, MCD and Place).

It occurred over a year ago, so it may not be in the shapefile for 2016.  It defently should be in the 2017 version though if they ever release it.

The combined entity gained 3 residents from 2015 to 2016.  Its 2016 population is 5180.  It has lost 3.08% of its population from 2010, or 165 residents.

If census hasn't gotten around to fixing the shapefile, I'm not going to change the map.  It would take more work to do that than you think.

Edited to add:  Census is aware of the consolidation (it made their list of entity changes), but it didn't take effect until January 1, 2017.  The estimates are 2016 estimates - so it makes sense to show the entities as they existed in 2016, not 2017.  I'm sure Census will update their 2017 shapefiles to reflect the consolidation.

[cinyc]

I made single-year maps for 2010-11, 2011-12, 2012-13, etc.  They're available in my Carto account.  These are backward looking, so if there was a merger or consolidation, you're only going to get stats for the 2016 entity, and won't get stats for dissolved entities.

Unfortunately, I compared 2011 to the 2010 estimate instead of the estimates base or census, and didn't compare the 2010 estimate to the 2010 EB or census in my spreadsheet.  It's way too much of a pain to fix that (I'd have to update all the maps), so it will have to stay that way.  At least all of the comparisons are for a one-year period, though.

[cinyc]

Census' 2012-16 ACS estimates came out last week. I have started to map some of the results, and might start a thread here later in the week with #analysis, if I can find the time.

For my first project, I compiled the Seq 23 commuting data. For now, you can see some of the interactive maps I made of that data on my Carto page.

[cinyc]

The 2017 state estimates are out. It looks like Alaska, Hawaii, Illinois, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Dakota, West Virginia and Wyoming lost population.

The largest numerical gain was in Texas - almost 400,000, followed by Florida.

[cinyc]

Census’ press release is out here:

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2017/estimates-idaho.html?intcmp=s1-popest-state

Idaho, Nevada and Utah had the highest percentage gains year-over-year.

[cinyc]

Any surprises affecting reapportionment?

I’ll leave that up to the experts.

Pennsylvania passed Illinois and is now the 5th largest state.

[cinyc]

Any predictions for the census county estimates?

The state of Alaska released its own estimates, and Mat-Su Borough was the only county equivalent there that was significantly growing. I suspect that Census will find the same. Alaska’s full report is here: http://labor.alaska.gov/trends/mar18.pdf

I also think the Western ND oil counties will show very slow growth or a population decline.

[cinyc]

Are they late? They usually are almost always released in the morning.

The national projections were released today: https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2017/demo/popproj/2017-summary-tables.html

 The county estimates will be released to the public on March 22.

[cinyc]

County estimates come out tomorrow morning, likely around 10AM Eastern. Any guesses on what they will show?

[cinyc]

County estimates come out tomorrow morning, likely around 10AM Eastern. Any guesses on what they will show?

I’m thinking Texas counties still leading the way, and breakneck growth % wise in King (WA), Ada (ID) and the Atlanta counties

Maricopa, AZ actually had the largest numerical increase last year. Will that continue? Or will it be another county this year?

[cinyc]

We're starting to get a preview of tomorrow's census release from newspaper websites. Census' official release is here. Data will come in the morning.

The 2016-17 winners and losers:

The Largest-Gaining Counties (Total Population):

1. Maricopa County, Arizona, up 73,650 to 4,307,033, 1.7 percent increase.
2. Clark County, Nevada, up 47,355 to 2,204,079, 2.2 percent.
3. Riverside County, California, up 36,744 to 2,423,266, 1.5 percent
4. Harris County, Texas, up 35,939 to 4,652,980, 0.8 percent.
5. Tarrant County, Texas, up 32,729 to 2,054,475, 1.6 percent.
6. King County, Washington, up 32,687 to 2,188,649, 1.5 percent.
7. Bexar County, Texas, up 30,831 to 1,958,578, 1.6 percent.
8. Dallas County, Texas, up 30,686 to 2,618,148, 1.2 percent.
9. Denton County, Texas, up 27,911 to 836,210, 3.5 percent.
10. Collin County, Texas, up 27,150 to 969,603, 2.9 percent.

Fastest-Growing Counties (Percentage Increase):

1. Falls Church city, VA 5.2%
2. Comal County, TX 5.1%
3. Wasatch County, UT 5.0%
4. Hays County, TX 5.0%
5. Kendall County, TX 4.9%
6. Walton County, FL 4.5%
7. Tooele County, UT 4.4%
8. Morgan County, UT 4.4%
9. Lumpkin County, GA 4.3%
10. Osceola County, FL 4.2%

Biggest total population drops

1. Cook County (Chicago): down 20,093 to 5,211,263.
2. Baltimore city: down 5,310 to 611,648.
3. Cuyahoga County: down 4,940 to 1,248,514.
4. St. Louis city: down 4,518 to 308,626.
5. Allegheny County (Pittsburgh): down 4,505 to 1,223,048.
6. Honolulu County, Hawaii: down 4,111 to 988,650.
7. Milwaukee County, Wisconsin: down 3,284 to 952,085.
8. Anchorage County, Alaska: down 3,020 to 294,356.
9. Wayne County (Detroit), Michigan: down 2,982 to 1,753,616.
10. Kanawha County (Charleston), West Virginia: down 2,804 to 183,293.

Largest-Gaining Metro Areas (Total Population):
1. Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX +146,238
2. Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX +94,417
3. Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA +89,013
4. Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ +88,772
5. Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV +65,908
6. Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA +64,386
7. Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA +57,017
8. Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL +56,498
9. Austin-Round Rock, TX +55,269
10. Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL +54,874

Fastest-Growing Metros (Percentage Increase):

1. St. George, Utah, 4 percent to 165,662.
2. Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, S.C. and N.C., 3.7 percent to 447,793.
3. Greeley, Colo., 3.5 percent to 294,243.
4. Bend-Redmond, Ore., 3.4 percent to 180,675.
5. Coeur d'Alene, Idaho, 2.9 percent to 153,144.
6. Lakeland-Winter Haven, Fla., 2.9 percent to 667,018.
7. Boise City, Idaho, 2.8 percent to 690,810.
8. Provo-Orem, Utah, 2.7 percent to 601,478.
9. Austin-Round Rock, Texas, 2.7 percent to 2,060,558.
10. The Villages, Fla., 2.5 percent to 125,165.

Interactive map from Cleveland.com